Mint Explainer: Why India’s mega hydro plan on the Brahmaputra is about more than power
Unveiled on 14 October, the plan is India’s response to China’s goal of developing the 60GW Medog dam on the Yarlang Tsangpo river (the Brahmaputra in China), which has raised concerns of a 85% reduction in the Brahmaputra’s flow during the dry season.
India plans to set up 208 hydropower plants on the Brahmaputra with 64.9GW of power generation capacity and 11.1GW of pump storage capacity by 2047 to establish its downstream rights on the river.
The move is part of a wider ‘master plan for evacuation of power from hydroelectric plants in the Brahmaputra basin’, a massive ₹6.42 trillion infrastructure project designed by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) to harness and transmit the vast, untapped hydropower potential of the northeast region to the national grid.
Unveiled on 14 October, the plan is India’s response to China’s goal of developing the humongous 60GW Medog dam on the Yarlang Tsangpo river (the Brahmaputra in China), which has raised concerns of a 85% reduction in the Brahmaputra’s flow during the dry season that would affect people’s livelihoods and the region’s agriculture and ecology.
Mint takes a closer look at the potential threat from China’s mega dam, India’s response to it, and what the geopolitical tussle means for people’s livelihoods and the environment.
What does India’s master plan entail?
According to the CEA, the exploitable hydropower potential of the Brahmaputra basin is 64.94GW, of which about 6.8GW has been realised and another 19.55GW is expected to be set up by 2035. The remaining 38,586.2MW is expected to be tapped after that. It also has plans for planned pumped storage plants (PSPs) with capacity of 11.13GW, of which 3.72GW expected by 2035. Pumped storage plants are a type of hydroelectric energy storage that use two reservoirs at different elevations to store and generate electricity, acting like a giant rechargeable battery.
Studies by the CEA recommend seven HVDC stations with a capacity of 6,000 MW at six locations, and a 31,397 circuit kilometre (ckm) network to handle power evacuation and transmission to eastern, northern and western regions.
The CEA estimates the total cost of the plan at ₹6.42 trillion.
What are the concerns around China’s mega dam?
Currently, the Brahmaputra basin has an installed capacity of 4.8GW across 22 projects and another 2GW in under-construction projects. The region’s hydropower potential equates to more than 40% of India's total hydropower capacity of 145.32GW.
Meanwhile, the Medog dam's proposed capacity of 60GW is nearly three times that of the Three Gorges Dam (22.5GW) on the Yangtze river, currently the world's largest power station. China has refused to sign the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, which governs the sharing and management of transboundary rivers.
Sector experts have warned, therefore, that the huge new dam would allow China to control and therefore weaponise the Yarlung Tsangpo, which feeds the Siang, Brahmaputra and Jamuna rivers, leaving communities in India at its mercy. A report by Australian think tank Lowy Institute in 2020 said "control over these rivers (in the Tibetan Plateau) effectively gives China a chokehold on India's economy".
The scale of India’s response highlights the Brahmaputra’s importance to the country. The river originates in the Kailash range of the Himalayas at an elevation of 5,300 metres. After flowing through Tibet it enters India through Arunachal Pradesh and flows through Assam and Bangladesh before joining the Bay of Bengal. Its total length is about 2,900 km, including 1,346 km in India.
The Brahmaputra basin is spread across 580,000 square kilometres, of which 50.5% is in China, 33.6% in India, 8.1% in Bangladesh and 7.8% in Bhutan. In India it spans Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, West Bengal, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Sikkim, covering 194,413 sq km or nearly 6% of India’s total geographical area.
How would hydro projects in India mitigate the potential impact of Chinese projects?
India has already set the ball rolling on a 10GW ‘Upper Siang Multipurpose Project’ on the Siang river, the upstream portion of the Brahmaputra. The ₹1 trillion project with a significant reservoir capacity has been planned by state-run NHPC.
These reservoir-based hydropower projects should be able to counter a heavy flow of water from China if it ever decided to release water without informing India. The reservoirs will also help store water during the monsoon, creating a backup in case China turns off the flow from the Medog dam.
What else is the government doing on hydroelectric projects?
Amid a growing need for green power and strategic requirements, the union cabinet approved a ₹4,136-crore scheme for 15GW of hydropower projects in the northeast in August 2024. Under this scheme, the government will provide financial assistance to northeastern states for their equity participation in hydroelectric projects through joint ventures (JVs) between state entities and central public sector undertakings.
What are the human and environmental concerns around this?
These ambitious plans face significant livelihood and environmental concerns, particularly across India's northeast. The primary worry stems from the sheer scale and placement of these projects, which require acquiring vast tracts of land, leading to deforestation and the displacement of local communities and wildlife. The construction and operation of large dams would also dramatically alter the river's ecology and affect people’s livelihoods. Also, in a seismically active zone like the Himalayas, the construction of mega dams adds a layer of geological risk.
NHPC's Upper Siang Hydro Electric Project has drawn major protests in Arunachal Pradesh, which have stalled significant progress. These protests highlight the strong opposition from communities concerned about drastic changes to their homes, cultural practices and livelihoods.
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