When the lights go out: How climate change is impacting J&K’s energy economy

This year, February felt more like May. The sun is shining bright and the ground is dry. “We grew up playing in the snow,” he says. “Now, we do not wait for snow to play. We wait for electricity. When snowfall is less, the canals run low and the hydropower plants slow down. That means more power cuts for us.”

With climate change triggering consecutive snowless winters and declining precipitation in Jammu and Kashmir, the strain on the region’s hydropower sector is growing, exposing the risks facing an energy economy built on snow-fed rivers.

Winter drought

The scale of the disruption is already visible in weather data. According to the India Meteorological Department, the Union territory has recorded an overall rainfall and snowfall deficit of 39% during this winter season, with most districts witnessing significantly below-normal precipitation. Between 1 October and 31 December 2025, J&K received just 77.5mm of rainfall against a normal average of 127.7mm, while the first three weeks of January saw an extraordinary 96% shortfall.

These deficits matter because winter precipitation determines how much water is available to feed rivers in the months that follow. Prolonged dry spells and delayed snowfall are destabilizing the snow-fed river systems that power much of the region’s electricity generation, sharply reducing the discharge needed to run hydropower plants.

The current crisis, however, is part of a longer and worsening trend. Weather analysts say dry winters and erratic snowfall have become more frequent over the past six years. In 2024, J&K recorded its driest year in nearly five decades, receiving 870.9mm of rainfall against a normal annual average of 1,232.3mm, a deficit of 29%. Last year, the region received an estimated 860-920mm of rainfall. It was the fifth consecutive year of below-normal rainfall, following deficits of 7% in 2023, 16% in 2022, 28% in 2021 and 20% in 2020.

Hydropower under stress

Even before climate change intensified the stresses, hydropower in the region faced chronic winter challenges, as freezing temperatures locked river water in snow and ice, reducing flows and forcing run-of-the-river projects to cut generation just when electricity demand peaked.

Experts say winter shortages are driven by a combination of structural and climatic factors. Dry winter weather intensifies sub-zero conditions, causing runoff water to freeze and disrupt generation. Unlike rest of the country, hydropower in the region depends on real-time runoff from rivers and canals, snowmelt, glaciers and catchments. When that water freezes, generation falls sharply, and the shortfall has to be met through power imports.

Iftikhar A. Drabu, a consulting civil engineer who has spent long years working in the hydropower sector, says the climate shock is impacting generation of hydro power plants. The whole region, including J&K, he claims, is already among the most water-stressed regions, and prolonged dry spells are compounding the problem. “Dry winters will adversely affect hydropower generation. Most of our major plants were built over decades by the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC), and we have failed to add new capacity of our own to strengthen local generation,” he says.

The impact on local power availability has been severe this season. According to officials, generation from J&K’s own powerhouses has fallen to around 105MW against an installed capacity of 1,140MW, largely due to reduced water discharge in rivers and canals. The collapse in supply has coincided with a sharp rise in winter demand, particularly in the Kashmir Valley, where electricity consumption surges because of heating needs.

This widening gap between supply and demand has pushed the J&K government into deeper dependence on imported electricity. For instance, in the last financial year, the government said it spent ₹9,250 crore to purchase power from the national grid. As dry spells lengthen and hydropower becomes increasingly unreliable, concerns are growing over the region’s energy security and long-term planning.

According to Mudasir Nabi, an engineer working with J&K Power Development Corp. Ltd, climate change is shortening the hydropower generation cycle. “Our peak generation period, which usually runs from late April to the end of September, has begun to shrink. We have studied this closely, and the energy shortfall is becoming more visible now.”

If snowless winters and summer heatwaves continue to accelerate glacier melt, Nabi warns, power generation will decline further. “Then we will be forced to look for alternatives, but we do not have wind or coal resources, nor do we yet have a strong solar base. In that scenario, we have little option but to rely on power imports.”

Nabi says a wetter winter remains critical to rebuilding the water base needed for hydropower. “It helps us generate more electricity because glaciers are our water banks, and all our projects depend on snow-fed rivers.”

The politics of power

Power remains the second-most discussed subject in Kashmir after politics, shaped as much by economics as by long-running political claims. Of the erstwhile state’s total installed capacity of around 3,500MW, only about 1,140MW comes from J&K-owned plants: Baglihar (900MW), Lower Jhelum (110MW) and Upper Sindh (110MW). The remaining 2,300MW is contributed by central projects such as Salal, Dul-Hasti, Uri and Kishanganga.

NHPC, a government of India enterprise, alone accounts for nearly 64% of J&K’s hydropower capacity. The Union territory gets only 13% free supply from these projects and has to buy power as per the power purchase agreement signed for each NHPC project.

This imbalance has fed into a broader political narrative around power in Kashmir. For decades, regional political parties and separatist outfits have reinforced a perception that local resources are being diverted elsewhere even as the region faces power shortages.

Officials say this belief has fuelled resistance to reforms such as smart meters and low transmission cabling, which the power development department views as critical to curbing power pilferage, illegal hooking and electricity theft to reduce high aggregate technical and commercial (AT&C) losses.

According to Drabu, the Centre’s decision to place the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance last year after the Pahalgam terror attack is unlikely to significantly improve hydropower generation in J&K. “Hydropower projects in the region are largely run-of-the-river based, meaning that simply storing more water does not automatically translate into higher electricity production.”

Glaciers in retreat

Kashmir-based independent weather analyst Faizan Arif tells Mint that hydropower generation in J&K is being affected by a structural disruption in the region’s climate system, driven by declining winter snowfall and rising temperatures. “Reduced snow accumulation and accelerated glacier loss are weakening the meltwater buffer that sustains river flows during lean months, lowering inflows for run-of-the-river projects and cutting firm power availability.”

Himalayan glaciers act as natural reservoirs, releasing meltwater gradually through spring and summer to sustain river flows that feed major hydropower projects on rivers such as the Chenab, Jhelum and Kishanganga, powering several NHPC plants.

But various scientific studies reveal that J&K has lost nearly 30% of its glaciers over the past 60 years, with climate scientists warning that up to 70% could vanish by the end of this century if current trends persist.

Studies led by Anil V. Kulkarni, former scientist at the Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, using satellite data from the Indian Space Research Organisation’s National Remote Sensing Centre, show that many glaciers in J&K are retreating at rates of 15-20m per year, driven by rising temperatures and reduced winter snowfall. With 18,000 glaciers across J&K and Ladakh steadily thinning, the hydropower that once defined the region’s energy security is no longer sustainable on its own.

Mohammad Muslim, assistant professor in the department of environmental science at the University of Kashmir, says erratic generation, higher operational costs and heavy silt loads during spring reduce the storage capacity and efficiency of hydropower projects.

Turning to the sun

In response to this “blue gold” losing its lustre, J&K is turning towards a solar-led future. To bridge the widening winter energy gap, the government is pushing the solarization of government buildings and residential homes through the rapid rollout of schemes such as the PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana. The longer-term goal is to transform rooftops into power plants, insulating the grid from hydropower volatility and turning to the sun for the stability that melting mountains can no longer guarantee.

Shahid Choudhary, former secretary to the government in the department of science and technology, says the government sees solar as a long-term complement to hydropower rather than a replacement. “As we expand solar schemes, hydropower will increasingly work alongside solar and wind in hybrid models. The focus is on building a sustainable and clean energy system that reduces seasonal vulnerabilities.”

Choudhary tells Mint that solar deployment is being prioritized across multiple sectors, particularly agriculture, which remains vulnerable to erratic grid supply. “Unstable electricity affects irrigation and farming operations. Last year alone around 4,000 solar pumps were installed, generating about 14MW of power for agriculture and irrigation,” he adds.

The government, Choudhary explains, is also scaling up solar installations across public infrastructure. “Through J&K Energy Development Agency (Jakeda), nearly 8,000 government buildings have already been solarised out of a target of 12,900, generating close to 78MW. Our target is 120MW, and solar schemes are being revised to accelerate this transition.”

According to figures provided by Mehmood Shah, managing director of the Kashmir Power Development Corp. Ltd, J&K has installed a total of 33,975 grid-connected rooftop solar systems with a combined capacity of about 177MW so far.

Yasir Altaf, assistant professor in the department of environment sustainability and climate change at the Islamic University of Science and Technology, stresses on the importance of climate-resilient planning. “For example, during prolonged dry spells and lean-season low river flows, solar generation remains relatively reliable and can complement hydropower, helping reduce climate-related risks in the power sector,” he says.

Drabu, who has availed of the government’s grid-connected solar rooftop scheme, which subsidizes up to 65% of installation costs, says he receives free electricity for nearly nine months each year from the solar panels installed on his roof. “From mid-March to mid-November, I don’t pay any electricity bill because my solar plant generates more power than I consume. The surplus energy is stored in a battery and drawn upon during winter, when usage rises sharply and generation drops.”

The J&K power development department’s latest tariff schedule shows that government subsidies significantly lower the upfront cost of rooftop solar systems for consumers. A 3kW system, typically installed by households, has a market price of ₹1.59 lakh, but combined subsidies from the Centre and the Union territory government reduce the payable amount to ₹64,700. Larger installations remain costlier despite support. A 10kW rooftop solar system is priced at ₹5.06 lakh and receives a subsidy of ₹94,800, shared between the two governments, leaving consumers to bear an expense of ₹4.11 lakh.

Drabu, however, cautions that solar power cannot fully replace hydropower as a source of sustainable clean energy, particularly in Kashmir, where limited land availability constrains the development of large solar parks. “A hybrid approach works better. Solar can meet daytime demand, while hydropower is used at night. Relying entirely on solar is not feasible here because of limited clear-sky days and the lack of land for large-scale projects,” he says.

One thing is certain, given the immediate and future challenges emanating from climate change. Jammu and Kashmir will need to diversify its energy sources, develop resilient infrastructure and draw up sustainable water management practices, among other measures, to keep the lights on.