MUMBAI: Steel companies are set to post a strong March quarter (Q4FY26), thanks to firm demand and higher prices after hitting multi-year lows in November 2025. Will this momentum continue in the coming months?

Mint breaks down why this rally in prices is expected to decline starting mid-May.

Why will steel companies have a strong Q4?

Steel prices began rising around mid-December, driven initially by higher coking coal costs, and continued to gain through the quarter. The uptrend was supported by a mix of domestic and global factors. Extended safeguard measures protected local producers from an influx of cheaper imports, while a slowdown in Chinese exports tightened global supply.

Brokerage firm PL Capital expects metal companies to deliver a strong performance.

At the same time, an extended monsoon last year reduced the construction window, forcing project execution into a shorter period and triggering a surge in demand.

Higher coking coal costs, plant maintenance at key facilities, and limited supply also added upward pressure on prices, said Hemant Dewangan, AGM–Steel Prices & Index, BigMint, a commodity market intelligence firm. Together, these factors kept steel prices firm during the quarter.

How much did steel prices rise in Q4FY26?

Steel prices rebounded sharply from November lows, supported by improving demand and firmer market conditions. With project deadlines approaching in the last quarter, buyers were willing to absorb higher prices to secure material quickly. Demand from both construction and industrial segments remained strong, allowing mills to pass on cost increases, according to BigMint.

Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices rebounded sharply, rising up to 21% to ₹56,611 per tonne by end-March after hitting a 10-month low in November, according to BigMint data. Rebar prices surged nearly 27% to ₹59,756 per tonne over the same period, recovering from a five-year low. HRC is widely used in automobiles and home appliances, while rebars are primarily consumed in construction and infrastructure projects.

Will the steel price rally continue?

Prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, supported by pre-monsoon construction activity and dealer restocking, said Aditya Welekar, metals analyst at Axis Securities, adding that the rally may, however, fade by June-July as the monsoon slows construction.

According to BigMint, while prices have recovered, a return to FY22 peak levels of around ₹70,000 per tonne for HRC is unlikely in the near term. The intelligence firm expects prices to soften from mid-May onwards.

What happens to demand during the monsoon?

Demand typically slows during the four-month monsoon season (June-September) as construction activity weakens, particularly for long products such as rebar. While overall consumption doesn’t collapse, slower project execution tends to weigh on prices.

Demand and prices usually recover from November as construction activity picks up again.

How do global factors affect steel prices in India?

Currently, global factors are not significantly influencing domestic steel prices. After the imposition of safeguard duty, domestic steelmakers have gained confidence to increase prices.

Any potential export pressure due to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), Europe’s carbon tax, is unlikely to disrupt the domestic market in the short term, as robust demand can absorb supply and price realizations remain healthy, said Dewangan.

MUMBAI: Steel companies are set to post a strong March quarter (Q4FY26), thanks to firm demand and higher prices after hitting multi-year lows in November 2025. Will this momentum continue in the coming months?

Mint breaks down why this rally in prices is expected to decline starting mid-May.

Why will steel companies have a strong Q4?

Steel prices began rising around mid-December, driven initially by higher coking coal costs, and continued to gain through the quarter. The uptrend was supported by a mix of domestic and global factors. Extended safeguard measures protected local producers from an influx of cheaper imports, while a slowdown in Chinese exports tightened global supply.

Brokerage firm PL Capital expects metal companies to deliver a strong performance.

At the same time, an extended monsoon last year reduced the construction window, forcing project execution into a shorter period and triggering a surge in demand.

Higher coking coal costs, plant maintenance at key facilities, and limited supply also added upward pressure on prices, said Hemant Dewangan, AGM–Steel Prices & Index, BigMint, a commodity market intelligence firm. Together, these factors kept steel prices firm during the quarter.

How much did steel prices rise in Q4FY26?

Steel prices rebounded sharply from November lows, supported by improving demand and firmer market conditions. With project deadlines approaching in the last quarter, buyers were willing to absorb higher prices to secure material quickly. Demand from both construction and industrial segments remained strong, allowing mills to pass on cost increases, according to BigMint.

Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices rebounded sharply, rising up to 21% to ₹56,611 per tonne by end-March after hitting a 10-month low in November, according to BigMint data. Rebar prices surged nearly 27% to ₹59,756 per tonne over the same period, recovering from a five-year low. HRC is widely used in automobiles and home appliances, while rebars are primarily consumed in construction and infrastructure projects.

Will the steel price rally continue?

Prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, supported by pre-monsoon construction activity and dealer restocking, said Aditya Welekar, metals analyst at Axis Securities, adding that the rally may, however, fade by June-July as the monsoon slows construction.

According to BigMint, while prices have recovered, a return to FY22 peak levels of around ₹70,000 per tonne for HRC is unlikely in the near term. The intelligence firm expects prices to soften from mid-May onwards.

What happens to demand during the monsoon?

Demand typically slows during the four-month monsoon season (June-September) as construction activity weakens, particularly for long products such as rebar. While overall consumption doesn’t collapse, slower project execution tends to weigh on prices.

Demand and prices usually recover from November as construction activity picks up again.

How do global factors affect steel prices in India?

Currently, global factors are not significantly influencing domestic steel prices. After the imposition of safeguard duty, domestic steelmakers have gained confidence to increase prices.

Any potential export pressure due to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), Europe’s carbon tax, is unlikely to disrupt the domestic market in the short term, as robust demand can absorb supply and price realizations remain healthy, said Dewangan.