Can a packed calendar of mega star releases in 2026 deliver the turnaround theatres are waiting for?

Trade experts believe that even in an increasingly content-focused market, the comeback of marquee faces could revive opening-day momentum, which has dipped recently as films either lack buzz or depend entirely on word-of-mouth. With each star aiming for around ₹500 crore in lifetime earnings from their projects, expectations are running high.

Hindi cinema’s box-office slowed further in 2024, with gross collections slipping 13% to ₹4,679 crore, as per media consulting firm Ormax. Its contribution to overall earnings also fell to 40% from 44%. Trade experts say exhibitors may close the year just 5–10% higher than 2024, but still below the highs of 2023—putting added pressure on 2026 to deliver.

Big slate, bigger stakes

“2026 is shaping up to be a solid year for the theatrical business, propelled by a formidable line-up of large-scale releases led by some of India’s most prominent mainstream stars," said Ashish Saksena, COO–cinemas, BookMyShow.

The year kicks off with war epic Border 2, starring Sunny Deol and Varun Dhawan, and Telugu romantic horror The Raja Saab headlined by Prabhas. The pipeline includes Toxic (Yash, Nayanthara), Vijay’s political actioner Jana Nayagan, the long-awaited Ramayana (Ranbir Kapoor, Yash, Sai Pallavi), Jailer 2 with Rajinikanth, Alia Bhatt’s Alpha, Salman Khan’s Battle of Galwan and Shah Rukh Khan’s King.

“Films led by Shah Rukh Khan, Salman Khan, Ranbir Kapoor, Aamir Khan, Hrithik Roshan, Vijay, Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan have consistently demonstrated the ability to shape audience behaviour on a national scale," Saksena added. Strong pre-release chatter, high advance bookings and repeat viewings typically follow, and early indications suggest that this cycle may return in 2026.

Why 2025 didn’t click

While 2025 also had some big names, the content didn’t always land, and the box office felt patchy because of the same, according to Bhuvanesh Mendiratta, managing director of Miraj Entertainment Ltd, which operates multiplex theatres.

“In contrast, 2026 is packed with star vehicles that not only have scale but also freshness—new pairings, emotional storytelling, mythological and patriotic themes—and that’s what audiences are responding to now. There’s definitely a stronger lineup, better festival positioning, and more confidence among exhibitors. If even a few of these big films deliver, 2026 could outperform 2025 by a wide margin," Mendiratta pointed out.

Big bets ahead

Trade experts point out that 2023 was an exceptional year with the likes of Shah Rukh Khan’s Pathaan ( ₹543.05 crore), and Jawan ( ₹643.87 crore) and Ranbir Kapoor’s Animal ( ₹556.36 crore) making for unprecedented box office earnings.

There’s a massive amount riding on upcoming films too—over ₹2,000–3,000 crore across just 10–12 star-driven projects. However, returns will depend heavily on content and timing. One of the key challenges, according to exhibitors, will be avoiding clashes—2026 is already a crowded calendar. And with such high stakes, even a minor miss can affect recovery. Further, there is a need to combine marquee releases with compelling smaller films to ensure a steady box-office momentum.

“Budgets and expectations are always higher for star-driven films because they are positioned as event offerings. The focus should remain on stories that can travel across regions, compelling marketing that builds anticipation, and experiences inside the cinema that feel worth the outing. At the same time, the industry must continue to support diverse content because a strong year depends on a balanced slate, not only tentpole outcomes," said Devang Sampat, managing director, Cinepolis India.