Tamil actor and newly elected chief minister Vijay has seen box office success with his latest film Jana Nayagan, which grossed over ₹50 crore on its opening day and had made over ₹220 crore at last count. While this would ordinarily be considered unusual for a film leaked online weeks before release, entertainment industry experts point out that scenes from Pushpa 2: The Rule were also leaked online hours after its theatrical release. Yet, the Hindi version alone ended up with over ₹830 crore in box office collections.
More recently, Hollywood horror film Obsession faced unauthorized leaks and piracy distribution across illicit torrent and streaming networks following its theatrical rollout and subsequent regional censorship controversies, netting over ₹85 crore in India at last count.
This suggests that while leaks are a major concern, they do not necessarily determine a film’s commercial outcome. Poor-quality prints can limit their impact, while watching a film in a theatre offers a very different experience from viewing an illegal digital copy. However, some argue this may hold true mainly for big-budget, star-led films or those with strong word-of-mouth. Trade experts typically assess the impact of a leak based on the film’s scale, buzz and eventual box-office performance.
A costly problem
Video piracy remains rampant in India, costing the industry a staggering ₹22,400 crore annually, according to a report released by EY and the Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI). Of this, ₹13,700 crore in losses stem from pirated movie theatre content, while ₹8,700 crore is attributed to illegally accessed OTT content.
Streaming remains the primary source of pirated content, accounting for 63% of the total, followed by mobile apps at 16%, with social media and torrent platforms contributing another 21%.
“Whether it is a big-star film or a small independent one, a leak is never good news. It chips away at the curiosity and excitement that build before a release,” film producer Anand Pandit said, adding, however, that a leak is only one part of the story.
The audience test
The real test, Pandit said, begins after the first few shows.
“A leak alone rarely determines a film's fate. Once the first shows are over, the conversation shifts to audience response. There have been films that started slowly and gathered momentum over the following days, just as there have been big releases that couldn't sustain interest despite strong marketing. Ultimately, a theatrical run is shaped by how people respond after they've watched the film, not simply by what happens before release,” Pandit added.
Rohit Dalmia, chairman and managing director, CineNow, an entertainment financing platform, said there could be an overlap between audiences watching a film online and in theatres, but the motivations differ. “Piracy largely serves immediate or price-sensitive consumption, while cinemas offer spectacle, sound, community and fandom. For major event films, the theatrical experience remains a distinct product that an online copy cannot fully replace,” Dalmia added.
Star power matters
To be sure, many feel big stars such as Vijay or Allu Arjun command large enough followings to entice people to cinemas even if portions of their films are available online. That can ensure a strong opening, allowing the film to build from there.
Over two decades, Vijay has consistently topped the box office in gross and share, and an entire generation of fans has grown up on his films. Shahir Muneer, founder and CEO, Divo, a south Indian digital media and music company, said Jana Nayagan carried the added emotional weight of being his last theatrical outing for fans.
“Given that combination, sustained star power, a farewell-film sentiment, and a fan base actively boycotting the pirated version, the film crossing ₹100 crore was less a surprise and more a natural outcome,” Muneer explained.
Sameer Munshi, chief operating officer, Miraj Entertainment Ltd, agreed that piracy and unauthorized leaks are certainly a concern for the entire film industry, but they do not necessarily determine a film’s commercial outcome.
“Theatrical performance is influenced by many factors, including the strength of the content, audience sentiment, word-of-mouth, star appeal and the overall experience that a film offers in cinemas,” Munshi said.
“We have seen films across Hindi and South Indian cinema continue to perform strongly despite piracy-related challenges. While big-star films naturally benefit from their event value and strong opening-day pull, a good film with positive audience response can also build momentum through word-of-mouth and sustain its theatrical run. Ultimately, audiences make the decision to visit cinemas based on the experience they expect from a film. When the content connects and the theatrical experience is compelling, piracy does not necessarily prevent audiences from coming to cinemas,” Munshi added.
Leaks remain vulnerable
That said, many point out that piracy has been an industry-wide challenge for years. It continues because a film passes through multiple hands before release, from post-production and censorship to digital distribution, and a single breach can expose the entire project.
Leaks can also originate from illegal recordings inside theatres, making the problem even harder to control.
Vaibhav Modi, writer, producer and lyricist, said the impact of piracy also depends on the genre and the level of anticipation a film manages to generate.
“So one can safely say that it's the co-relation between a big film's (or one with a big star) ability to do immediate damage control that makes it immune. The same would probably not be true about a smaller film,” Modi added.