Industry
Streaming platforms stare at flatlining subscription growth
Summary
In most cases, over-the-top (OTT) platforms have saturated their audience base in metros. However, price drops are not expected, as ARPUs (average revenue per user) already remain low, though content spends will remain under control.
NEW DELHI : The explosive growth of lockdown days is becoming a distant memory for streaming platforms. The number of subscription households may stay flat at 45 million in 2023, and paid subscriptions increase marginally from 99 million to 101 million, professional services network EY said in a report.
The current year is likely to see many subscribers shift from Disney+ Hotstar to JioCinema thanks to the Indian Premier League, or to other services since the tournament is streaming for free.
In most cases, over-the-top (OTT) platforms have saturated their audience base in metros. However, price drops are not expected, as ARPUs (average revenue per user) already remain low, though content spends will remain under control.
“The industry experienced explosive growth during the covid-19 pandemic, which has now normalized as the situation stabilizes. This transition to normalcy naturally leads to a more muted growth outlook for the industry in the coming year. However, despite the moderation in growth, there are positive indications to consider. Consumer behaviour has undergone a lasting change, indicating a sustained demand for OTT content. Additionally, there has been a significant surge in content consumption on mobile handsets, demonstrating the increasing popularity and accessibility of OTT platforms," said Rakesh C.K., head – SVoD and business strategy at aha Video, an OTT platform.
Essentially, the whole OTT universe is unlikely to grow, while there might be a shift of consumers from one app to another. The 8.4 million subscribers that Disney+ Hotstar has lost over the past six months, for instance, may move to JioCinema or look at taking up other paid subscriptions.
“The (streaming) business has definitely hit a glass ceiling and the overall growth is going to be restricted. As most platforms continue to go for the top end of the market, the lower end of audiences has increasingly moved to YouTube," said Anuj Gandhi, media analyst and founder of Plug and Play Entertainment, a media tech start-up. There is only so much content people can watch overall, Gandhi pointed out, and even platforms are gradually moving from a subscriber push to improving engagement.
The SVoD (subscription video on demand) market in India will take a breather this year, agreed Mihir Shah, vice-president at Media Partners Asia (MPA), an advisory, consulting and research services provider. “However, the AVoD (advertising video on demand) segment will be fuelled by the supply of premium inventory from players like JioCinema, having amassed a sizeable reach on the back of IPL, as well as established SVoD platforms like Prime Video and Netflix in the future, which are considering introducing freemium ad tiers to penetrate deeper into the market," Shah pointed out.
For long, the assumption was that lowering prices would help improve subscriber numbers, but platforms are no longer looking at such instant results.
“We’ve all announced prices, and we can’t be impatient about changing them every two to three months. We have to realize India is made up of many countries whose per capita income differs and dropping prices will not do anything for our P&L (profit and loss)," said Abhishek Joshi, head of ShemarooMe. Pricing innovations might help in inducing trials, as brands try to expand nationwide into different regions and demography, but if it is consistent in providing good content, audiences will keep coming back to the app, Soumya Mukherjee, chief operating officer of Bengali streaming service Hoichoi said.
