As tensions in the West Asia war escalate, the fallout could reach an unlikely corner of the global economy: Indian cinema’s overseas box office. The US-Israel-Iran conflict since late February has led to widespread uncertainty in the region, a crucial overseas market for Indian, particularly Hindi, Tamil, Telugu and Malayalam films.
Over 9 million Indian expatriates reside in West Asia, primarily within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), making it the largest concentration of Indian diaspora globally. The South Indian diaspora in West Asia, particularly from Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, forms a massive expatriate community, primarily in United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar.
With heightened security concerns and uncertain cinema operations across the region, upcoming titles are unlikely to find any traction in theatres, even if there is a distribution network that can facilitate showcasing.
While action-drama Dhurandhar: The Revenge was, like its first edition, is anyway unlikely to release in the territory given its patriotic and anti-Islamic theme, other titles scheduled for the coming weeks could bear the brunt, given the unpredictable timeline of disruption.
Over the coming weeks, Akshay Kumar’s horror comedy Bhooth Bangla, Telugu film Dacoit, and Malayalam titles Aadu 3, Drishyam 3 and Pallichattambi would have ordinarily looked to West Asia for box-office returns. Indian film buffs are now unlikely to make it to theatres to watch these films under present circumstances even if cinemas are technically functional.
The region is among the top five overseas markets for Indian films along with the US, the UK, Australia and New Zealand.
Industry experts said most Indian film producers are in a wait-and-watch mode, with only Kannada star Yash’s Toxic moved to June, citing tensions in the region.
To put it in perspective, a big hit like Shah Rukh Khan's 2023 release Jawan had earned nearly ₹150 crore from the UAE alone and trade experts estimate that 25-30% of overseas box office comes from West Asia.
“There will definitely be a big impact. Malayalam films, for one, cannot release without the Middle East (West Asia) and while one doesn’t see the war ending soon, even if it does, it’s not like people will rush to the movies,” said Mukesh Mehta, founder of Malayalam film production and distribution company E4 Entertainment.
"The US and the Middle East are the highest paying territories as far as the overseas markets go," said Yusuf Shaikh, film producer, distributor and founder and chief executive officer (CEO) of Janta Cinema, a low-cost theatre chain, adding though that business cannot be halted since summer is a hugely lucrative period.
A fresh dent
The uncertainty comes at a time when overseas box office collections have already been subdued and studios have sharply trimmed their marketing spends, leaving little momentum behind new releases abroad. After mid-2024, there haven't been any big hits overseas.
And now, in the current crisis, Shaikh said producers will have to stop counting West Asia as a release territory even if it adds to their woes at a time when the overseas box office was already looking dull.
While domestic hits such as Dhurandhar, Fighter, Border 2, Article 370, Sky Force, and Tiger 3 had been banned in the Gulf largely due to censorship objections over portrayal of regional conflicts or religious sentiments, there haven’t been enough large-scale titles to lure diasporic Indians to theatres abroad over the past few months, in general.
In that sense, said film producer, trade and exhibition expert Girish Johar, overseas territories mirror the Indian market, where audience tastes have become as selective and very few films are able to break out to resonate with non-Indian viewers, like S.S. Rajamouli’s RRR did.
To be sure, only tentpole movies like Kalki 2898 AD, and earlier Rocky Aur Rani Kii Prem Kahaani found an audience overseas around nearly two years ago. A lot of the business also depends on when there are holidays or long weekends in foreign markets. As far as challenges go, much of the cinema-going habit among young Indians studying abroad has also been disrupted due to high ticket prices.
Further, with Indian film studios anyway cutting on marketing and promotional budgets by around 60-70%, there are hardly any efforts made to create buzz and hype around new releases in the domestic or overseas markets.
“The overseas market has been a damp squib for a while now. Most filmmakers aren’t able to crack the market with the stories they tell, and films aren’t even marketed aggressively for viewers to feel compelled to come to the movies,” Shaikh pointed out.