After an initial surge, generic semaglutide brands have begun to plateau, according to monthly sales data. With demand steadying, industry watchers expect the June trend to continue through the year, dampening plans of several generic drugmakers who entered the highly lucrative yet competitive market. Mint explains what’s slowing the growth momentum and what this means for the therapy.
What are semaglutide generics?
Semaglutide is the compound name for Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss and type-2 diabetes drug, better known by the brand names Wegovy and Ozempic. The drug lost its patent exclusivity in India in late March, triggering a host of generic, or copycat, versions of the drug, launched at cheaper (50-90% lower) costs. Over 30 brands were launched soon after patent expiry by several companies, including Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Sun Pharma, Torrent Pharma, Glenmark, Eris Lifesciences, Zydus Lifesciences and more. The launches triggered a price war as well, with the innovator soon slashing their own prices.
Experts believed that newer, cheaper brands entering the market would lead to rapid market expansion, reaching patients who could not afford or access innovator drugs.
What does recent monthly data show?
Just two months after generics were launched, the pace of incremental sales slowed, while innovators continued to grow at a steady pace, data from drug-tracking firm Pharmarack show.
The broader GLP-1 market showed annual growth of 238% as of June 2026, growing to ₹2,055 crore. However, this was largely dominated by tirzepatide—another weight-loss and diabetes drug from the American innovator Eli Lilly. Sold under the brand name Mounjaro, the drug alone accounted for ₹1,300 crore in MAT sales, while semaglutide contributed ₹649 crore. MAT is the moving annual total, representing sales over the preceding 12 months.
For semaglutide, while total unit sales rose from 170,000 in April to 202,000 in June, value gains have begun to plateau. Generic sales flattened at ₹40 crore in May and June, after growing to ₹38 crore in April, the data showed.
The initial rush also led to overstocking of the drugs, with the market reporting excess inventory of nearly ₹100 crore by June.
What do experts say?
Generic brands did expand the market significantly in terms of volume—they accounted for 82% of total unit sales in June. However, the expansion may already be optimally covered, with no further exponential growth, according to the Pharmarack report. Patients who couldn’t access innovator drugs may have already been onboarded, and now the challenge is retaining them. Global studies have shown a 30-50% drop off rate among patients on GLP-1s within a year, driven by side effects or cost constraints.
This has led industry experts to revise their forecasts for expansion in the Indian market. Pharmarack expects demand to steady, and June sales levels to broadly continue through the second half for semaglutide and tirzepatide.
How are innovators growing?
Defying fears of losing significant market share to generics, innovators Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, along with their domestic partners Cipla, Emcure, and Abbott, have continued to show steady month-on-month growth, indicating a loyal prescriber base and patient onboarding.
Soon after the generics were launched, Novo Nordisk slashed the prices of its brands by up to 48% to compete with domestic players. This, along with doctors preferring innovators and better recall of their brands, has helped innovators retain and grow market share.
The central drug regulator’s crackdown on marketing and promotion tactics for GLP-1s further led to slower, steadier prescription-led growth.
What does this mean for the category?
The GLP-1 category is still expected to grow 111% in value terms in the next six months, according to Pharmarack. In an investor call last week, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories management said that demand for the drug remains robust, although the company has hit a supply snag due to issues with its active pharmaceutical ingredient (API).
However, experts believe that onboarding new patients may slow, impacting the pace of growth. Experts also believe that in the next year, generic brands that have established distribution networks and manage to build recall value and brand trust with doctors will hold their market share, while others may struggle.