Quick commerce has exploded. But 2026 is likely to be even more challenging

The ongoing year saw an explosion of the rapid delivery segment as companies expanded beyond metros to tier 2 and 3 cities, added more warehouses and went beyond everyday essentials, burning even more cash to win over customers.

Backed by fresh funding, the three dominant players–Swiggy’s Instamart, Eternal’s Blinkit and Zepto–will look to create profitable models to solidify their market position in the coming year, according to industry executives.

“Expect sharper credit terms with brands, stricter expiry control, and consolidated city hubs," said Madhav Kasturia, founder and chief executive officer of hyperlocal delivery platform Zippee. “Capital sets the pace, but execution still decides who can convert density into contribution profit every single week."

Swiggy raised ₹10,000 crore in fresh capital via a qualified institutional placement (QIP) on 13 December, two months after Zepto raised $450 million at a valuation of $7 billion, led by US-based pension fund California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) in October. Parent Eternal, too, continues to invest in Blinkit.

Cash burn continues

Indians ordered ₹64,000 crore of goods from quick-commerce platforms like Blinkit and Instamart in FY25, a more than twofold jump from the previous fiscal, according to a report by domestic ratings firm Care Edge. Platforms pocketed revenue of ₹10,500 crore from fees in FY25 from about ₹450 crore in FY22, the report said, underscoring the explosive growth of the segment since the pandemic.

Breakneck growth, competition and evolving consumer behaviour have prompted continued investments in more dark stores or large warehouses, a key factor in quick last-mile deliveries. Losses widened, too.

Blinkit reported the highest cash burn compared to the previous quarters to establish 272 dark stores in the July-September period. It spent about ₹1,038 crore, about 94% of the funds it allocated during the quarter to expand its dark-store network. Swiggy’s net loss widened to ₹1,092 crore against ₹626 crore in the year-ago period, hurt by increased spending on Instamart.

Chances of curtailing this cash burn are slim, as the segment is still in a hypergrowth phase, with companies still trying to increase the number of loyal customers.

Habit building

On the brighter side, there are signs that quick commerce is becoming a habit, with many households already using it for weekly planning, rather than last-minute convenience, according to Satish Meena, analyst at market research firm Datum Intelligence. This means that platforms could optimize their assortment and delivery timelines based on predictable purchase baskets, he said.

Platforms expanded their assortment to include discretionary items such as apparel, gifts, shoes, and even big-ticket purchases such as iPhones and PlayStation 5 consoles. The coming year will see deeper penetration into high-margin categories, including pharmacy, along with private label brands, after laying the groundwork for non-grocery categories in 2025.

“Private labels have become the real engine. At the same time, chronic meds, consumables and essentials fit the model perfectly, and this will become the next major growth line as platforms chase higher repeat and higher AOV," said Zippee’s Kasturia. “2026 will focus on thoughtful growth: better planning, smoother operations, and more balanced partnerships. It feels like a natural moment for quick commerce to mature with intention."

Driving online retail

As it is, the rapid delivery segment is already outpacing the overall online retail market and even threatening the growth of kirana stores.

The sector accounted for over two-thirds of all online grocery orders last year, with its total market share growing about five times to $6-7 billion from 2022, according to a report by consultancy firm Bain & Co. This is expected to rise even further this year, it said.

Quick commerce has started fuelling growth in the overall e-commerce market with the digital commerce flywheel already outperforming global markets, according to Karan Taurani, analyst at Elara Securities. “While US online sales grew 5-6% YoY, India continues in double digits with a robust trajectory fuelled by quick commerce driving user expansion and regional penetration."

According to Meena, if the last few years were about rapid expansion, the next phase needs a steadier foundation.

That may not be easy as a bigger challenge awaits.

Enter Amazon, Flipart

The explosion of rapid delivery has drawn giants like Amazon and Flipkart.

Flipkart rolled out its instant delivery arm, Minutes, late last year, with expansion across major cities this year. Amazon launched Now in select cities in June.

In 2026, these major players will focus on broadening their product ranges, diversifying into new categories, expanding offline, and improving delivery speed and last-mile reliability, according to Subramanian M.K., director of Velocity, an e-commerce enablement platform.

“Brands are increasingly focused on strengthening their owned channels, improving demand forecasting, stocking inventory across multiple locations, and working with logistics partners that support distributed warehousing and faster delivery," he said. “Digital-first brands are also doubling down on stronger omnichannel execution with deeper visibility into margins, better control over customer data, and a more reliable logistics experience."

According to Meena, larger marketplaces like Flipkart and Amazon appear to have an advantage to get ahead in the quick commerce race, given their wider assortment of products as well as a stronghold among shoppers. But “success will largely depend on their ability to deliver within minutes – a proposition quick commerce platforms have already mastered".