Shippers are skeptical of Trump’s truce with the Houthis

The top five container-shipping companies said they were assessing the deal announced Tuesday by President Trump but had no immediate plans to return to the area where the Houthis began targeting merchant ships in late 2023 in response to the war in the Gaza Strip.

“We are not going back any time soon," said Nils Haupt, a spokesman for German liner Hapag-Lloyd. “It’s a good development, but it needs a lot of security guarantees for the Red Sea to be considered safe for big merchant ships."

Shippers said the area will remain volatile as long as the war continues. And while the Houthis and U.S. pledged not to attack each other while the cease-fire holds, the agreement is vague and makes no clear mention of ending attacks on commercial shipping, said Christopher Long, intelligence director at security firm Neptune P2P Group and a former British naval officer.

A Pentagon official said there is still work to be done to guarantee safe navigation, which could include limited Navy escorts for crossing ships as the truce begins and diplomacy to get the Houthis to stop attacking Israel. The Houthis said Wednesday that they fired drones at Israel. The Israeli military said it had intercepted a drone attack.

“It will take some time before the southern Red Sea is safe, and we are working on it," the official said. “It will also depend on how the Houthis behave."

Following more limited operations by the Biden administration last year, Trump ordered the Pentagon to escalate the bombing campaign in Yemen for nearly two months, aiming to stop Houthi attacks that have driven shippers away from one of the world’s most important waterways.

Traffic through the Red Sea is down by 60%. Carriers have switched to longer and more expensive routes around the Cape of Good Hope. Analysts say it could take months to restore shippers’ confidence.

Ellie Shafik, the executive in charge of intelligence at British maritime company Vanguard Tech, said U.S. maritime officials “have advised caution in terms of whether the latest cease-fire will result in lasting safety and security for commercial shipping in the Red Sea."

The Houthis, who swept out of the mountains of Yemen to take over much of the country a decade ago, started to launch drones and missiles at Israel after Israeli forces entered Gaza following the deadly Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attacks. They also began to attack international shipping that transited the Red Sea and nearby waters.

Commodities-data company Kpler said Wednesday that the shipping community will consider the Houthis a threat until they are disarmed or prevented from striking vessels, resulting in high war-risk premiums and a preference among shipowners to keep avoiding the area.

One of the points of confusion is whether the truce applies broadly to commercial shipping or just U.S. vessels. The Houthis said Wednesday they would continue to target ships linked to Israel. That is a definition they have applied in unpredictable ways previously, at times attacking vessels with a loose connection to the country or targeting others by mistake.

Any shooting in the narrow waterway will cause shippers to worry that their vessels could be hit accidentally or suffer collateral damage.

“Shippers are reticent to go back into the Red Sea when it’s really unclear how long this will last and who’s really affected—which shipping companies or which flags are going to be honored by the Houthis or not," said Bryan Clark, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington.

Large maritime companies didn’t return to their Red Sea routes when the Houthis said in January they wouldn’t attack U.S. and British vessels during a Gaza cease-fire that ended up running for two months. The Yemeni militants resumed their attacks after Israel went back to war in the enclave.

Clark assessed that shippers would stick to their current routes until there is a more sustained end to Israel’s war in Gaza, where Israel’s government recently approved a major expansion of combat activity.

“Going back to their previous routes would be costly, and then if they had to shift back again because the Houthis begin attacks again, they’re just going to lose money every time that happens," said Clark, a former strategic planner for the Navy. “So if you’re a shipping company you might say, ‘I’m going to wait it out and see if there is an enduring end to the conflict.’"

Write to Stephen Kalin at stephen.kalin@wsj.com, Costas Paris at costas.paris@wsj.com and Benoit Faucon at benoit.faucon@wsj.com