Steel prices hiked for the second time in two weeks as import curbs take effect

Prices of hot-rolled coil (HRC) and cold-rolled coil (CRC) were increased by 4% to Rs.51,700 per tonne in the second week of January, after a 2-4% hike in early January 2026, according to Big Mint, a commodities market intelligence.

Rebar prices were raised by nearly 7% to Rs.52,500 per tonne in the second week of January, following a hike of around 3-4% in early January.

New Delhi has imposed 12% staggered duty for three years and will fall by half a percent each in the second and third year, according to a gazette notification dated 30 December.

The quick succession of price hikes could lift margins for large producers, influence infrastructure project costs and shape investor sentiment in steel stocks in the months ahead.

“A price hike was expected as steel prices bottomed out during October–November, construction activity resumed after the monsoon, and a three-year safeguard duty provided additional support. These factors attracted investor attention and led to a rally in steel stocks," said Aditya Welekar from Axis Securities.

Among listed steelmakers, Tata Steel has been the top performer so far this year, rising 3.47%. JSW Steel followed with a gain of 1.34%, while Steel Authority of India (Sail) was marginally higher at 0.62%. Jindal Steel, however, fell 2.38% during the same period. The benchmark Sensex advanced 1.9%.

Rebar leads rally

“The sharper hike has been seen in rebars, largely driven by demand from the project segment, which accounts for nearly 70% of rebar sales for large mills," said Dhruv Goel, chief executive officer of Big Mint.

“With the financial year-end approaching, project execution typically accelerates, lifting demand. Additionally, mills entered January with healthy bookings made in late December and relatively low inventories, providing room to raise prices," he said.

Demand for steel has also improved with the resumption of construction activity.

“Yes, demand has remained robust, particularly from stockists and the project segment, which is providing near-term support to prices," Goel said.

“Strong order books, improved visibility on near-term demand and lean inventory positions have given mills the confidence to implement a second price hike so soon after the safeguard duty," he added.

Room to recover

From a longer-term perspective, current prices still leave room for increases, said Niladri N. Bhattacharjee, partner and metals and mining industry leader at Grant Thornton Bharat.

“Compared with the highs of FY22, prices are still substantially lower. There is enough headroom for increases, and mills are also looking to recover some of the pressure absorbed over the past few years due to very low domestic prices. However, the ability to raise prices is largely limited to large players with strong brands and market reach," he said.

Demand from the infrastructure and construction sector remains firm, supported by activity in highways, rail corridors, urban transit, airports, renewable energy projects and digital infrastructure, Bhattacharjee added.

Limits ahead

Despite the recent increases, Goel cautioned that further price hikes could face resistance.

“The price gap between large mills and mid-to-small players has already widened. If prices continue to rise, contractors are likely to shift sourcing to mid-sized mills. This limits the upside for further hikes in the near term," he said.

Bhattacharjee, however, sees some additional headroom.

“In my opinion there is still a maximum head-room of Rs. 4000–Rs. 5000 per tonne price-increase possible for HRC coil. For rebar products there may be lower headroom of maximum Rs. 2000–Rs. 3000 per tonne possible. But only for players who bring quality to their value proposition. For most players it may be difficult to push up re-bar prices any higher than present," he said.