Can Trump's ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs enable gold prices to climb ₹1 lakh peak in 2025?

Gold rate today: Gold prices fell by ₹154 to ₹90,721 per 10 grams in futures trading on Wednesday due to subdued demand in the spot market. 

However, this fall came after gold contracts for June delivery surged to an all-time high of ₹91,400 per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange on Tuesday, April 1.

In the global market, gold prices have surged past $3,100 per ounce, fuelled by concerns over US tariffs and potential economic fallout, which have driven investors toward safe-haven assets.

“Gold prices have been hitting multiple new highs from the start of this year. The crucial factors that have been fuelling this robust rally of yellow metal can be attributed to the recent uncertainty that has spread across the globe due to the tariff threats by President Trump. The US President has declared that tariffs will be imposed on all countries by this week, which is further adding sheen to gold prices. Additionally, the escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and rising tensions in the Middle East are other factors that have been boosting gold prices," said Colin Shah, MD, Kama Jewelry.

Gold likely to surge to ₹1 lakh in 2025?

Currently, gold on MCX is trading is around ₹91,100 per 10 grams, around ₹9,000 away from the ₹1 lakh mark and reaching it would require a further increase of approximately 10% from current levels.

“For the domestic market, one of the major factors for prices to move higher will be a weaker rupee, and further weakening of the currency will support a move towards ₹1 lakh. We see more positives than negatives for the ₹1 lakh target this year. But if economic stability returns and central banks maintain a tight monetary policy, gold’s rise could be slower," said Sriram Iyer, Senior Analyst, Reliance Securities.

Chintan Mehta, CEO, Abans Financial Services, believes that the ongoing rally in gold is an extension rather than the start of a fresh uptrend. 

“We believe this is more of an extended rally rather than the start of a fresh uptrend, and we do not expect prices to reach ₹1 lakh in 2025. Most bullish factors have already been priced in. With these elements largely accounted for, there may not be enough fresh catalysts to push gold beyond the ₹1 lakh mark,” Mehta said.

Is it right time to invest in gold amid ongoing rally?

Gold had a stellar start in 2025, delivering over 18.64 per cent returns in Q1, making it the second-best quarter after Q3 in 1986. For 2024-25, the return stands at 39.73 per cent.

“Given this momentum, an additional 10-12% gain ( ₹1,00,000 level) in the remaining three quarters of 2025 cannot be ruled out. Gold continues to set new records daily, driven by global economic uncertainty, inflation, central bank policies, geopolitical risks, and rupee depreciation,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities Ltd.

Kalantri further recommended investors to avoid fresh investments at this level. He said short-term investors can consider profit booking in the ongoing rally.

“We believe gold is entering the final phase of its rally heading into Q2 2025, and new investors may find themselves trapped, similar to trends seen in the equity markets. Therefore, we do not recommend fresh investments at this level. Short-term investors who entered the market 1-2 years ago should consider gradually booking profits. Chasing an extra 7-10% return could put existing handsome gains at risk,” Kalantri said.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.