Cocoa tops 2024 charts: Outperforms Bitcoin with a 180% rally
- Cocoa prices recently soared to a historic peak of over $12,900 per tonne, registering an extraordinary rally of 180% in 2024. This milestone has crowned cocoa as the best-performing commodity of the year, delivering superior returns compared to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin prices witnessed a remarkable surge in 2024, recording a rally of over 140% as the largest cryptocurrency reached an all-time high of $108,353 earlier this month. Despite this impressive performance, another commodity has outshone Bitcoin in terms of returns this year—cocoa, the primary ingredient in chocolate.
Cocoa prices recently soared to a historic peak of over $12,900 per tonne, registering an extraordinary rally of 180% in 2024. This milestone has crowned cocoa as the best-performing commodity of the year, delivering superior returns compared to Bitcoin.
New York cocoa futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which started at approximately $4,200 per metric tonne at the beginning of 2024, surged to a record-breaking $12,931 last week.
Cocoa price rally
The rally in cocoa prices began in 2023 when rates were approximately $2,500 per tonne, nearly doubling to around $4,200 by the end of the year. In 2024, cocoa prices experienced a substantial surge, driven by several key factors.
“Cocoa prices rose sharply due to a combination of factors, including reduced production in major producing countries, resulting in a supply deficit, lower inventories, and higher logistics costs. Adverse weather conditions in leading cocoa producers, Ivory Coast and Ghana, significantly impacted global supply at a time when demand was rising, fueling the record-breaking rally in cocoa prices this year,” explained Ajay Kedia, Director of Kedia Advisory.
Ivory Coast and Ghana, which collectively account for nearly 70% of global cocoa output, faced production challenges due to unfavorable weather and the spread of crop diseases.
This marked the third consecutive year of a global cocoa supply deficit, with the 2023–24 season recording a shortfall of 478,000 tonnes. Additionally, cocoa inventories were at historic lows, further straining supply chains and driving prices higher, Kedia noted.
“Cocoa prices exhibited extreme volatility in 2024. After a sharp, multibagger rally from January to April, prices retreated from their highs by June. This was followed by a consolidation phase from July to November, before resuming an upward trajectory in November,” Kedia added.
2025 Outlook
Analysts anticipate a rise in cocoa production in 2025 due to improving weather conditions, which is expected to stabilize prices. While cocoa prices are likely to remain strong during the first half of the year, the market could witness profit booking in the latter half of 2025.
Cocoa shipments from Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producer, have performed well so far, running approximately 30% ahead of last season’s pace. According to a Reuters report, cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast since the start of the season on October 1 reached 972,000 metric tonnes by December 22, marking a 30.1% increase compared to the same period last season.
Kedia expects cocoa prices to hold firm in the first half of 2025, supported by current market dynamics, before moderating in the second half as supply conditions improve.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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