Copper price surges fresh record amid supply shortage fears. Should you buy or sell?

Copper continued its bullish momentum on Tuesday, surpassing the $13,000-per-ton mark for the first time, amid expectations of a tighter supply environment.

Three-month futures jumped as much as 2.2% to a record high of $13,283 a ton in London on Tuesday, eclipsing the previous day’s peak. Fears that the Trump administration could impose tariffs on refined copper have spurred shipments into the US, raising the risk of supply shortages elsewhere.

Meanwhile, back home, copper prices rose as much as 1.25% to ₹1,330.30 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) today.

What's behind the rally in copper?

Base metals have kicked off 2026 on a strong note, with the LMEX Index—tracking six key metals including copper—climbing to its highest level since March 2022, when the sector last peaked.

Copper, widely used in wiring and cables, has surged more than 20% since late November, while aluminium has advanced to its highest level in over three years.

Last year, President Donald Trump triggered a rush to ship copper to the US ahead of potential tariffs, before later exempting refined metal, which briefly slowed the trade. Momentum has since picked up again as plans to revisit possible levies pushed prices back into a premium. Reflecting this, US copper imports in December rose to their highest level since July, according to a Bloomberg report.

Trump has directed the Department of Commerce to submit an update on the US copper market by the end of June, after which a decision on tariffs for refined copper is likely. The department had previously suggested a 15% duty beginning in 2027, increasing to 30% in 2028, though the White House has yet to confirm this schedule.

Over the past year, copper prices were also supported by a string of accidents that disrupted output or slowed expansion at some of the world’s largest mines. At the same time, smelters have been under pressure from miners to agree to record-low treatment and refining charges, as securing sufficient raw material remains a challenge—further underscoring tight supply conditions.

Copper price outlook — How to trade?

According to brokerage firm Axis Direct, MCX Copper witnessed extreme volatility last week, recording a high of ₹1,393 and a low of ₹1,201, before ending the week marginally lower by 0.7%.

“The price action suggests continued instability, with volatility likely to remain elevated in the near term. A breakdown below the ₹1,200 mark could intensify selling pressure, dragging prices towards the ₹1,150 and ₹1,130 levels. On the upside, the all-time high of ₹1,393 remains a strong resistance. Additionally, the daily RSI is hovering near 70 but forming lower lows, indicating negative divergence and signalling emerging weakness in price momentum,” the firm said.

The brokerage firm further recommended investors to sell or book profits below ₹1,200, with a stop-loss above ₹1,230 and targets of ₹1,150 and ₹1,130.

(With inputs from Bloomberg)

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.