Home / Markets / Commodities /  Crude oil price to US dollar: Top 5 triggers for gold price in short term

Gold price outlook: Following ease in dollar index and cooling global inflation, yellow metal prices climbed to 5-week high last week in the week gone by. The precious bullion metal ended last week in positive zone for fourth straight week, logging around 1.37 per cent weekly gain. 

According to commodity market experts, overall outlook for gold is positive and it may go up to 53,500 levels on MCX in short term. They said that spot gold price is trading in $1,760 to $1,820 per ounce and it may go up to $1,850 levels in short term. They went on to add that gold investors need to remain vigilant about dollar index, commodity prices, US retails sales data expected on 17th August and some more triggers taking place next week.

Here we list out top 5 triggers that may dictate gold price in near term:

1] Crude oil price: "It remained volatile in the prior week and any sharp moves in the same would have implications for the inflation expectations as well as gold prices," said Sugandha Sachdeva, Vice President — Commodity & Currency Research at Religare Broking.

2] Dollar index: "Key variable to watch out for would be the movement of the dollar index. After slipping to lows of around the 104.63 mark during the week, the greenback was seen forming a base and staged a strong recovery towards the close of the week. If the DX manages to sustain above the 104.50 mark, we may witness some selling pressure in the precious metal," Sugandha Sachdeva said.

3] US retail sales data release: FOMC minutes and US retail sales data release on 17th August on 2022 will be an important event for gold investors as it will provide insights about the US economy.

4] Rupee vs dollar: "After dollar index shot up to 20-year high 109.30 levels, it came down below 105 levels last week building base around 104.50 levels. So, some recovery in Indian National Rupee (INR) against US dollar (USD) is expected this week, which is positive for the yellow metal. So, gold investors are advised to remain vigilant about this domestic trigger," said Anuj Gupta, Vice President — Research at IIFL Securities.

5] Global economic data: There are host of economic data releases lined up for the week ahead, wherein eyes would be on the latest readings of the Empire State manufacturing index, building permits, housing starts, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index, existing home sales data and industrial production data from the US. The UK CPI, Eurozone CPI, and GDP data would also be on market participants’ radar and shall steer gold prices during the week ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint.

Asit Manohar
Chief Content Producer at Live Mint Digital Team
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