Crude oil prices extend gains for 8th day, brent crude remains above $110/bbl. Where are prices headed?

US-Iran war: Oil prices climbed on Wednesday, 29 April, extending their multi-day rally, after reports suggested the US would continue its blockade of Iranian ports, potentially prolonging supply disruptions in the key Middle East producing region.

Brent crude futures for June rose 52 cents, or 0.47%, to $111.78 per barrel, marking an eighth consecutive day of gains. The June contract expires on Thursday, while the more actively traded July contract was up 0.4% at $104.84.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June advanced 57 cents, or 0.57%, to $100.50 per barrel, following a 3.7% jump in the previous session and rising in seven of the past eight days.

Back home, crude oil prices on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) witnessed a reverse rally. MCX crude oil prices fell over 0.64% to ₹9,426 per barrel in early morning session on Wednesday.

“Dated Brent is hovering near $111, but July is trading closer to $104 — that's almost 6.5% of backwardation in roughly two months. You don't get a curve that steep from sentiment or speculative positioning; that's physical scarcity showing up in the price,” said Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities.

What's driving crude oil prices today?

US President Donald Trump said Iran has urged Washington to ease the naval blockade of the strait as both sides hold talks aimed at ending hostilities that have disrupted Middle East energy supplies.

According to The Wall Street Journal report, citing US officials, Trump has directed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade. In recent discussions, he has favored maintaining pressure on Iran’s economy and oil exports by restricting maritime traffic to and from its ports, viewing alternative measures—such as resuming airstrikes—as riskier.

Although a ceasefire has been in place since early April, negotiations between the US and Iran remain stalled. Meanwhile, the blockade is intensifying pressure on Tehran, with the country quickly running out of crude storage capacity, raising the likelihood of deeper production cuts, according to a Bloomberg report.

Since the conflict erupted in late February, the Strait of Hormuz has become nearly impassable, disrupting the flow of crude oil, natural gas, and refined products, and pushing energy prices higher. The situation has heightened concerns of an inflationary crisis, with the International Energy Agency describing it as the largest supply shock on record.

Amid the turmoil, the United Arab Emirates has announced its decision to exit OPEC next month, ending a six-decade-long association. The country stated that the supply crunch caused by the war demands greater flexibility to meet market needs, without being limited by the group’s collective decision-making framework.

Crude oil price outlook

According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, crude oil prices continue to stay elevated, with Brent trading in the $105–110 per barrel range, posing a key risk to inflation and weighing on overall market sentiment.

On the technical outlook, Ponmudi said that MCX Crude Oil is currently trading near the ₹9,200 zone, consolidating within a volatile ₹8,900– ₹9,200 range amid mixed macro cues.

“A sustained break above ₹9,275 could push the pair toward ₹9,350– ₹9,470. On the downside, a break below ₹8,950 could expose ₹8,800– ₹8,750, with deeper losses possible on sustained selling. The near-term bias leans bullish, with a decisive directional move contingent on developments in the Strait of Hormuz,” Ponmudi added.

On the other hand, Banerjee believes that Brent stays constructive as long as it holds above $100. The level to watch is $115. A clean break there, and the next leg is $120 to $125.

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