Crude oil prices jump, Brent tops $100 after Iran dismisses US ceasefire proposal; more upside ahead?

Crude oil prices jumped, with the brent oil prices raising about $100 a barrel, amid uncertainty over the end of US-Iran war. While US has reportedly sent a ceasefire report to Iran, the Islamic Republic said it was reviewing the proposal, but had no intention of holding talks.

Brent crude oil price gained 1.56% to $103.81 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rallied 1.59% to $91.76.

Trump's 15-point plan, delivered via Pakistan, proposes the elimination of Iran's stocks of highly enriched uranium, an end to its enrichment activities, restrictions on its ballistic missile program, and a cessation of financial support for regional allies, as reported by three sources in the Israeli cabinet familiar with the proposal.

The ongoing conflict has nearly stopped shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which usually accounts for around one-fifth of the global supply of crude oil and liquefied natural gas. The International Energy Agency has described this situation as the most significant disruption in oil supply history.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that communications have taken place between the US and Iran through intermediaries, but he noted that Washington’s change in tone reflects an acknowledgment of failure after previously insisting on Tehran’s “unconditional surrender.”

Market analysts suggest that oil markets are currently receiving significant attention, as the threat of supply interruptions, especially near the Strait of Hormuz, is helping to maintain prices despite recent fluctuations. If tensions were to rise further or if critical infrastructure were to be attacked, oil prices could experience another steep increase, contributing to global inflationary pressures.

On the domestic front, MCX crude oil prices closed at ₹8,511 on March 25, declining by ₹225 or 2.58% during the session. On Thursday, March 26, 2026, MCX will be partially closed on account of Ram Navami. There will be no trading during the morning session (9:00 AM – 5:00 PM), but trading will restart for the evening session from 5:00 PM to 11:30 PM.

Can crude oil hit fresh high?

Brent crude prices, which were under USD 70 per barrel just a month ago, surged to nearly USD 120 per barrel at one point, and TTF gas prices have risen by over 90% month-over-month.

Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, said that WTI crude futures rose above $91/bbl and Brent oil touched $100/bbl amid conflicting statements from the US and Iran on efforts to end the conflict that has roiled global energy markets.

“WTI Oil has a resistance near $95/ bbl and Brent oil may appreciate to $106/bbl and MCX Crude oil April futures may climbs to ₹8,650/bbl,” added Trivedi.

Darshan Rathod, COO, Multyfi believes that, the market is currently laser-focused on geopolitical tensions and potential supply disruptions rather than demand dynamics. He noted that if tensions escalate further or the Strait of Hormuz faces any blockage, crude oil prices could surge rapidly to the $120–$140 per barrel range.

According to various reports, global brokerage Macquarie anticipates that even if geopolitical tensions subside soon, crude oil prices are likely to remain supported in the $85–$90 per barrel range, with a gradual increase back toward $110 until standard flows through the Strait of Hormuz are restored. The brokerage also pointed out that if disruptions continue into April, Brent crude could possibly rise to as much as $150 per barrel.

Reflecting a similar opinion, Kayanat Chainwala mentioned that crude prices might climb to $120 per barrel shortly and could reach $150 if the conflict persists, according to media reports.

At the same time, Nuvama Institutional Equities pointed out that a sustained shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—through which close to 20 million barrels of oil are transported daily—might drive crude prices to the $110–$150 per barrel level.

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