Crude Oil Prices Highlights: MCX crude oil price jumps 10%; Brent oil, WTI crude on the boil amid US-Israel-Iran war

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Natural gas prices jumped more than 6%, rising above ₹278 per mmBtu level, tracking US futures near $3 per MMBtu as energy markets rallied after strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran triggered regional retaliation. MCX natural gas price rallied as much as 6.17% to ₹278.50 level.

Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly 20% of global LNG flows including exports from Qatar, heightened supply concerns. With US inventories at a 0.3% deficit to the five-year average, potential trade interruptions could further support demand for American LNG cargoes.

For India, which imports roughly 85% of its crude oil requirements, sustained higher crude prices present macroeconomic and sector-specific challenges. Oil marketing companies (OMCs) are particularly vulnerable, as elevated crude prices can compress refining margins, increase operating and working capital requirements, and lead to higher borrowing costs and debt levels, said Sumit Pokharna, VP Fundamental Research, Kotak Securities.

If the situation persists, an upward revision in retail fuel prices remains a possibility, although any such adjustment may not be immediate, he added.

Saudi Aramco has halted operations at its Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia after a drone strike in the area, according to people familiar with the matter. The refinery, located on the Persian Gulf, can process 550,000 barrels of crude per day and is one of the largest in the country. ICE gasoil futures surged as much as 20%.

MCX crude oil prices jumped over 10% amid rising Middle East conflicts. MCX crude oil rate for March expiry was up by ₹624, or 10.24%, at ₹6,716 per barrel.

The spike in crude oil prices now brings crude closer to the previous major swing high near $77.65 - a level that capped prices in the prior cycle. That zone is likely to act as a strong medium term resistance. With crude oil prices already reacting sharply to the conflict narrative, the probability of consolidation or cooling off has increased. Momentum traders should avoid chasing strength here. A healthy pullback toward prior breakout zones would offer a structurally better risk reward setup, said Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives & Research, SAMCO Securities.

Sectorally, margin-sensitive players — specifically Paints and OMCs — face immediate pressure, as every $1 crude rise typically compresses EBITDA margins by 20–30 bps. Conversely, Upstream Energy and the Defense sector (bolstered by a record ₹7.85 lakh crore Union Budget 2026 allocation) remain structural beneficiaries, said Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research, Ventura.

Heavily inverted crude futures signify that a quick resolution is anticipated in the Middle East

Iran and Iranian-backed militias fired missiles at Israel and Arab states, and Israel and the United States pounded targets in Iran as the war expanded on Monday with statements of defiance and increasing casualties. As the American and Israeli airstrikes continued, top Iranian security official Ali Larijani vowed defiantly on X that “we will not negotiate with the United States,” AP reported.

Crude oil price is currently consolidating within the $70–$75 range. The surge followed a decisive breach of the $66.8 resistance band, fueled by heightened volatility surrounding the escalating US-Iran conflict disrupting supply concerns and driving safe-haven buying. A sustained breakout above the $75 resistance level could extend the current rally toward the $77–$80 target zone.

Immediate downside protection is established between $67–$72. On the downside, a break below $70 may expose $65. The broader bias remains mildly constructive as long as prices sustain above $70, said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.

MCX crude oil prices are currently trading within the ₹6,400–6,600 range retesting the ₹6,450–6,600 resistance band. Higher time frames indicate strong bullish momentum, with prices firmly holding above key moving averages and major support zones. A decisive breakout above ₹6,600 could extend gains toward ₹6,800–7,000. Immediate support stands at ₹6,200-6,100. A sustained break below 6,000 may weaken the short-term structure toward ₹5,700–5,800. Stronger structural support remains at ₹5,700-5,800, said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.

Overall sentiment remains firmly constructive on the upside breakout, with crude oil now extending gains, minimizing near-term consolidation risks, he added.

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategically vital maritime corridor between Iran and Oman, linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. It is one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints: on a typical day, tankers carrying crude oil equivalent to roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption transit the strait, along with vessels transporting refined products such as diesel, jet fuel and gasoline from Gulf refineries to markets around the world.

Much of this traffic originates from major oil-exporting countries including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait. Any significant disruption to navigation through the strait can therefore have widespread implications for global energy supplies and markets.

Oil price reporting agency S&P Global Platts is suspending bids and offers for price assessments of Middle East refined products that transit the Strait of Hormuz because of shipping disruptions from the US-Iran conflict, the company said in a note to subscribers sent out on Monday and reviewed by Reuters.

S&P Global Platts, one of the larger providers of price and transaction information on the oil and fuel markets for the industry, is also reviewing its Middle East crude pricing mechanism, the company said.

From March 2 until further notice, Platts has suspended the publication of bids and offers in the Middle East refined products Market on Close assessment process where they reflect loading at ports within the Persian Gulf that require transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the company said in the note to subscribers.

On the fiscal response, analysts do not expect the government to cut excise duties to absorb part of the burden faced by OMCs. Emkay Global’s energy team highlighted that OMCs remain relatively well cushioned, with earnings from other business segments helping offset oil marketing losses, reducing the likelihood of a government taking the hit on its books at this point.

“Assuming a ~$10 per barrel deviation from the baseline assumption of $65 per barrel, the eventual balance sheet and fiscal and inflationary impact will hinge on how the burden is shared between the government, OMCs, and end-consumers,” said Madhavi Arora, Lead – Economist at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

Analysts expect the sustained broader regional conflict in the Middle East could take crude oil prices beyond $100 per barrel. For India, the impact is direct as every $1 rise in crude oil price increases the annual import bill by ~$2 billion, putting pressure on the trade balance.

“Markets are likely to move from earnings-driven to oil-driven trading in the near term. Upstream energy and defence may see relative support, while oil-sensitive sectors such as OMCs, paints, tyres, aviation and chemicals face margin pressure,” JM Financial said.

Volatility in crude oil prices is likely to remain high, with WTI crude oil prices expected to hold around $72–$82 if tensions persist. However, signs of de-escalation, prices may correct back below $70. The 206,000 bpd output hike from OPEC+ less than 0.2% of global demand, is too small to offset any major disruption. Price direction will depend on whether Hormuz flows High normalize or conflict escalates further, said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities.

MCX crude oil price for March expiry opened higher by ₹118, or 1.93%, at ₹6,210 per barrel. Oil prices jumped as much as 6.61% to a high of ₹6,495 level on MCX. The prices were trading higher by ₹368, or 6.04%, at ₹6,460 per barrel.

The likely spike in crude prices will hurt macro-financial stability by putting pressure on the currency, current account deficit ($10/bbl increase in crude = 0.5% CAD/GDP spike), and domestic inflation.

As the tightness spills over to petchems and commodities, Seshadri Sen, Head Of Research And Strategist at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. expects corporate margins to take a hit. Petrol/diesel prices spike ₹0.52 or ₹0.55 per liter for $1 per barrel – if prices stay elevated, expect cuts in excise duties (Re 1 per liter cut = fiscal hit of ₹15,000 crore pa).

Secondly, this will trigger a global risk-off with India bearing the brunt. Vulnerability to energy imports and the expensive valuations cast India on the wrong side of the trade. Expect aggressive, short-term FPI selling as well as a renewed run on the rupee, he added.

The Middle-East conflict escalated over the weekend with the US and Israel bombing Iran. Though Iran’s response in attacking other GCC countries escalated the seriousness, we expect a relatively short conflict lasting a few days to a couple of weeks, given the imbalance between the two sides and the depletion of Iran’s leadership. In the short term, Emkay Global expects severe dislocation of oil supplies and global supply chains, with a spike in Brent crude prices to $90-100 per barrel.

Crude oil prices surged by the most in four years, as the US-Israeli war against Iran plunged the global crude market into turmoil. Brent rallied as much as 13% to above $82 a barrel, the highest level since January 2025, before paring the bulk of its gain. Brent crude oil price surged 4.82% to $76.38 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rallied 4.31% to $69.91.

Investors eye the Strait of Hormuz where around a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade flows and 20% of its liquefied natural gas. While the vital waterway has not yet been blocked, marine tracking sites showed tankers piling up on either side of the strait wary of attack or maybe unable to get insurance for the voyage, Reuters reported.

The war in the Middle East escalated as military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran showed no sign of lessening, while Iran responded with missile barrages across the region, risking dragging its neighbours into the conflict. President Donald Trump suggested to the Daily Mail the conflict could last for four more weeks, while posting that attacks would continue until US objectives were met.

OPEC agreed to resume oil production increases next month amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will add 206,000 barrels a day. OPEC output increase exceeds the monthly increments of just 137,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter and comes amid turmoil roiling the Middle East.

Brent crude futures prices surged to $82.37, the highest since January 2025, after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran and killed its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Brent crude oil price rallied 7.60% to $78.41 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rallied 7.19% to $71.86.

Crude oil prices jumped over 7% to multi-months high levels on Monday as war in the Middle East escalated, following US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, with the vital Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, several tankers damaged and shipments disrupted from the key producing region.