Crude oil prices rally on US-Iran war worries as Strait of Hormuz remains blocked; Brent above $110 per barrel

Crude oil prices rose on Friday, 1 May, as attempts to resolve the conflict with Iran have stalled, with Tehran continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz and the US Navy restricting Iranian crude exports.

Brent crude futures for July gained $1.19, or 1.08%, reaching $111.59 a barrel by 0149 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate futures rose by 39 cents, or 0.37%, to $105.46.

Experts noted that Brent crude oil surpassed $120 per barrel for the first time in 4 years, heightening inflation concerns and putting pressure on global risk assets.

Both benchmarks have recorded gains for four consecutive months, with Brent's June contract, which lapsed on Thursday, reaching $126.41 a barrel, the highest level since March 2022, Reuters reported.

Crude oil prices have been increasing since late February when the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption of around 20% of the global supply of oil and liquefied natural gas. In March alone, Brent surged 50%.

A ceasefire has been in effect since 8 April, but on Thursday evening, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said it was unrealistic to expect quick outcomes from discussions with the US, as reported by the official IRNA news agency.

Investors are currently monitoring developments in Washington and Tehran, anticipating new efforts to resolve the crisis that is negatively impacting the global economy, as British and European central banks caution about rising inflation.

In the meantime, the United States is working to gather a coalition of allied countries and shipping companies to ensure secure transit through Hormuz, while continuing its blockade of vessels that service Iran, according to an official from the State Department speaking to AFP, as per reports.

Crude oil prices outlook

Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, noted that WTI crude futures continued to hold above $105 per barrel and are on track for a second consecutive weekly gain. This strength comes amid fading hopes of a US–Iran peace agreement and expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed in the near term.

He highlighted that US President Donald Trump has reiterated the continuation of a naval blockade on Iranian ports to increase economic pressure. At the same time, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has further reduced the likelihood of a deal by asserting that Iran will not compromise on its nuclear or missile programs and will maintain control over the strait.

Trivedi also pointed out that concerns are rising over potential oil shortages in several countries, as the last shipments to depart from the Persian Gulf have already reached their destinations.

Additionally, US crude exports surged to record levels last week, as global buyers increasingly turned to American supply to offset disruptions in Middle Eastern oil flows.

On the domestic front, Trivedi observed that MCX crude oil, during a holiday-truncated session, may decline to ₹9,750 per barrel, as the overall undertone in global markets appears slightly bearish.

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