Crude oil prices rise for third session straight amid US-Iran war uncertainty; Brent crude above $110/bbl

US-Iran war: Oil prices extended gains to a third straight session on Monday, 18 May, as President Donald Trump renewed pressure on Iran to strike a deal aimed at ending weeks of conflict and reopening the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures rose $2.03, or 1.86%, to $111.29 per barrel after hitting an intraday high of $112 earlier in the session, marking the highest level since May 5.

Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude advanced $2.31, or 2.19%, to $107.73 a barrel, after touching $108.70 — its highest since April 30. The front-month June contract is set to expire on Tuesday.

Back home, crude oil prices on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) also witnessed a similar upward movement. MCX crude oil prices surged as much as 2.76% to ₹10,357 per barrel on Monday.

What's behind the crude oil prices?

In a social media post on Sunday, Trump said, “For Iran, the clock is ticking,” adding that the country “better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”

Oil prices have surged more than 50% since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran in late February, as reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supplies from Persian Gulf producers.

Supply concerns intensified further after the Trump administration allowed a waiver permitting Russian crude sales to expire, despite India’s request for an extension.

Tensions in the Persian Gulf escalated over the weekend after drone strikes triggered a fire at a nuclear facility in the United Arab Emirates, highlighting the fragile nature of the ceasefire.

Iranian semi-official media reports, quoted as saying by Bloomberg, indicated both sides remain deeply divided. The Mehr news agency said Washington had offered “no tangible concessions” while attempting “to obtain concessions that it failed to secure during the war,” potentially pushing negotiations toward a deadlock.

Since the ceasefire took effect on April 8, Trump has repeatedly warned of restarting the bombing campaign that began on February 28.

Crude oil price outlook

Kaynat Chainwala, AVP - Commodity Research, Kotak Securities, believes that oil prices are likely to remain volatile and elevated, barring a ceasefire breakthrough that meaningfully restores Hormuz flows.

“In the near term, key resistance for WTI sits at $112; a breach of that level opens the path toward $120, with support at $102. Brent faces resistance at $115, and a sustained move above could push prices above $125, while support holds at $104,” Chainwala said.

On the technical outlook, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said MCX Crude Oil opened with a sharp gap-up and is trading above the ₹10,300 zone, reclaiming previous highs while holding firmly above the rising trendline structure.

“Immediate resistance stands at ₹10,450– ₹10,500; a sustained move above this zone could accelerate the rally and push prices toward the ₹10,600-10,800 level. On the downside, ₹10,200– ₹10,100 acts as immediate support; a break below this area could extend the decline toward ₹9,850– ₹9,800. The near-term bias remains cautiously bullish driven by ongoing supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.

(With inputs from Bloomberg)

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.