Silver price falls over 3% as high crude oil prices dim hopes of a US Fed rate cut - Where is the white metal headed?

Silver prices slipped over 3% on Monday, March 16 even as the dollar softened, with bullion caught between two competing forces. On one hand, a weaker greenback and lower US Treasury yields offered some support to precious metals. On the other, stubbornly high oil prices kept inflation worries alive, which in turn reduced expectations of any near-term interest-rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve. Gold also fell.

MCX Silver rate fell 3.3% to ₹2,50,746 per kg while MCX Gold lost 2.2% to ₹1,54,925 per 10 gram

In the international markets however, spot silver fell 2.6% to $78.46 per ounce. Meanwhile, Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,983.17 per ounce, as of 0944 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 1.5% to $4,987.30. During the session, bullion moved on both sides of the $5,000 mark, falling as much as 1% before recovering some of those losses.

Spot platinum held steady at $2,024.85 and palladium slid 0.5% to $1,542.92.

Why Silver and Gold prices fell in today's deals?

A key reason for the fall was rise in energy prices waning hopes of a US fed rate cut.

Oil prices stayed above $105 a barrel as the US-Israeli war against Iran entered its third week, raising fears over damage to energy infrastructure and prolonging the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints remained shut, markets continued to price in what has become the biggest disruption to global oil supplies ever.

That tension left precious metals struggling for direction ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement due on Wednesday, where policymakers were widely expected to keep rates unchanged for a second straight meeting. With borrowing costs likely to stay elevated for longer, investor appetite for non-yielding assets such as gold remained under pressure.

The geopolitical backdrop added another layer of uncertainty. Investors remained unsure how long the conflict would continue and what its broader impact on global growth, inflation and financial markets might be. Aides to US President Donald Trump suggested the war could drag on for four to six weeks, while public messaging from both Washington and Tehran remained mixed. Trump said Iran wanted to make a deal, though the US was seeking better terms, while Tehran said it had neither requested talks nor sought a ceasefire.

Those mixed signals kept traders on edge, especially after Trump over the weekend threatened further strikes on Iran’s main oil export hub, Kharg Island, and said he was not prepared to agree to a deal to end the war. He also argued that countries heavily dependent on Gulf oil should share responsibility for securing the Strait of Hormuz.

Technical Outlook

Renisha Chainani, Head - Research at Augmont believes Silver remains firmly supported around $80 ( ₹260,000) and is continuing its upward momentum, with the next upside target seen around $95 ( ₹285,000). On the downside, strong support is placed near $75 ( ₹255,000), suggesting that any short-term corrections could attract fresh buying interest, she predicted.

Moreover, for gold she said, “Gold continues to consolidate, with prices expected to move towards $5250 ( ₹163,500) and $5300 ( ₹165,000) in the near term. Strong support is seen around the $5000 ( ₹158,500) level, which is likely to act as a key buying zone on any corrective dips.”

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.