Gold has more than doubled since 2023, but fund managers see little reason to call time on the rally. Central-bank buying, rising fiscal and geopolitical risks, constrained mine supply and the prospect of a less hawkish US Federal Reserve are keeping the structural case for the yellow metal intact.
The question now is what could drive the next leg—and how investors should play it. Gold-mining equities offer greater upside through operating leverage, fund managers say, but also carry significantly higher company and equity-market risks than physical gold or exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Vivek Iyer, partner and chief investment officer at Rational Equity Asset Management, is bullish on another leg of the rally, arguing that the case for gold is structural rather than cyclical.
Gold broke a fourteen-year ceiling in 2023, and what has followed is a repricing of the reserve asset itself, he said.
Data from Rational Equity Asset Management shows that different gold investment routes have delivered returns of 130–278% since August 2023.
Structural support
Central bank buying remains policy-driven, not positioning, Iyer said.
A 2026 World Gold Council survey of 76 reserve managers found that 84% expect gold’s share of global reserves to rise over the next five years, up from 76% a year earlier.
US debt held by the public crossed 100% of GDP in March, while the Congressional Budget Office projects it to reach 120% by fiscal 2036. Net interest costs are expected to more than double to $2.1 trillion, adding to deficits and further issuance. Iyer said rising US debt and interest costs could support gold by raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and the dollar, while strengthening demand for gold as a reserve asset.
Gold’s supply side also reinforces the case, with gold-mining equities seeing a sharp repricing.
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) rose from an October 2023 low near $27 to more than $60 by mid-2025, before reaching nearly $117 in February 2026—almost four times its 2023 low—while mined supply has grown only about 1%, Iyer noted. Industry lead times mean supply cannot respond quickly to higher prices.
The mid-2026 correction, with GDX falling roughly 35–37% from its February peak of about $117 to $73–76 by June-July, has not changed Iyer’s view.
Trailing three-month net gold ETF flows have recovered from −2.3 million troy ounces (Moz) to −1.4Moz in about six weeks, while the broader ETF complex remained net positive for the first half of the year, at over 18 tonnes year-to-date, despite June’s net gold ETF outflows of $8.9 billion, or approximately 74 tonnes.
The current trough is also in the same range as two earlier instances that preceded further bull-market gains, and remains a small fraction of the −9.3Moz recorded during the 2013 episode that preceded a multi-year bear market, Iyer said.
Driving the next leg
Gold’s pace has slowed, but the rally remains intact. MCX gold gained 21% in 2024 and surged 75% in 2025; it is up 15% so far in 2026.
MCX gold was trading at ₹151,483 per 10gm on Tuesday, compared with the 2023 peak of 63,412 per 10gm.
Further escalation in the West Asia conflict or a sharp rise in crude oil prices could stoke inflation and geopolitical concerns, potentially pushing investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, said Satish Dondapati, fund manager at Kotak Mahindra AMC.
Higher central-bank buying, particularly as countries continue to diversify their reserves, could provide further support, he added.
A weaker US dollar and declining US bond yields could also benefit gold by making it more attractive relative to other investments.
For Ashish Rajodiya, head of commodities at PL Capital, the biggest trigger is not the level of interest rates but a shift in rate expectations.
Gold has historically struggled when rate-hike expectations were rising and recovered sharply once they peaked and started easing. What matters more than the level of real yields, he said, is whether the market believes the tightening cycle is over.
“The key trigger isn't ‘rates need to fall,’ it’s ‘the Fed needs to stop being able to hike,’” he said.
Two things could lead to that: inflation falling on its own or growth weakening. Given how much current US growth is driven by artificial intelligence (AI)-related capital expenditure, any slowdown in that cycle could force the Fed’s hand sooner than expected, Rajodiya added.
Miners offer upside—and risk
For investors who want greater upside from a sustained gold rally, the opportunity may extend beyond the metal itself to gold-mining equities.
Gold-mining stocks can offer higher upside than physical gold or gold ETFs when prices rise, Dondapati said, mainly because of operating leverage. Miners have high fixed costs, so rising gold prices can expand profit margins much faster than the rise in gold prices.
Miners can also generate cash flows, pay dividends and grow by increasing production, finding new reserves or acquiring assets.
But that leverage works both ways. Mining stocks carry additional risks, including rising costs, production problems and company-specific risks. Gold ETFs offer a more direct way to play the metal, while mining stocks can offer greater upside during a strong gold cycle, but with greater risk, Dondapati said.
Major global gold producers include Newmont Corp., Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., Barrick Mining Corp. and AngloGold Ashanti plc. Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. is a major gold-streaming company rather than a conventional miner.
Iyer said, “Where we would own it - Well-capitalized mid- and small-cap producers in stable jurisdictions like North and South America, Australia, with visible volume growth of 20–25% per annum and a credible capital-return policy.”
He expects royalty and streaming companies to lag the miners they once financed.
For Iyer, miners are a smaller, additional allocation within an existing precious-metals portfolio, rather than a replacement for physical gold or gold ETFs. The idea is to add operating leverage to an existing bullish view on gold while accepting higher, equity-like volatility in return.