Gold price set to drop for second week in a row. Is it the right time to buy gold as US-Iran war keeps oil prices up?
Gold rate today: The COMEX gold price had ended at $5,158.70 per troy ounce last Friday, $468.10 away from the lifetime high of $5.626.80 per ounce
Gold rate today: Following no signs of de-escalation in the US-Iran war, fueling the oil prices above $100/barrel, the gold price today is set to drop for the second straight week. The COMEX gold rate today is around $5,085/oz, about $73/oz below last Friday's close of $5,158.70/oz. This would be the first time since November 2025 that the gold price has declined for two consecutive weeks. Upward momentum has stalled since the US-Israeli war with Iran began nearly two weeks ago, with no resolution in sight.
According to experts, the chances of a recovery in gold price today is unlikely, as the COMEX gold rate today slipped below the psychological $ 5,100-per-ounce mark. They said the gold price is close to its crucial support placed at $5,075 to $5,080 per ounce. Breaking below this support, the yellow metal may test the next crucial support at $5,000/oz.
US-Iran war
According to Bloomberg, US President Donald Trump and Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, struck defiant tones on Thursday, the 13th day of a conflict that has effectively blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and created the biggest-ever disruption to global oil markets. Brent crude fluctuated on Friday following a week of dramatic swings, while a gauge of the dollar fell marginally after climbing 0.5% in the previous session.
For gold, higher energy prices and rising inflationary concerns have greatly reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will cut interest rates. The latest US jobless report, which showed new claims remained subdued, also lessened the chance of borrowing costs being lowered.
US Treasuries slumped on Thursday, sending short-term yields to their highest since August, and traders now see virtually no chance of a rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting and only a 70% chance of a reduction this year. Higher borrowing costs are typically a negative for precious metals, which don’t pay interest.
The ongoing conflict has weighed on investors’ appetite for gold, with choppy trading replacing a longtime rally as investors sold the metal to cover margin calls in other parts of their portfolios. Bullion, however, has still gained around 18% so far this year and has largely held above the $5,000-an-ounce threshold.
A prolonged conflict — and persistently high crude prices — would add further pressure to the metal. The International Energy Agency said on Thursday that the war is creating an unprecedented supply disruption in oil markets, a day after its members agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from emergency reserves.
Gold price today: Technical outlook
Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said the COMEX gold rate today slipped below $5,100/oz, a big setback for bulls. The gold rate today is around the crucial support at $5,080 to $5,075 per ounce. Breaking below this support would signal more selling pressure, as the US-Iran war is lending strength to the US dollar by pushing crude oil prices higher.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said, “The metal has entered a short-term corrective phase following the strong rally driven by safe-haven demand. The current consolidation has pushed prices below some short-term moving averages, signalling a temporary pause in momentum.”
The Enrich Money expert said that the MCX gold rate today is in the ₹1,59,500 to ₹1,61,000 range, reflecting consolidation following the recent geopolitical-driven rally. Strong buying interest remains visible in the ₹1,56,000 to ₹1,57,000 demand zone, which continues to act as a key structural support level. As long as prices remain above this base, the medium-term bullish outlook remains intact. A sustained breakout above ₹1,65,000 could revive upward momentum toward ₹1,75,000 to ₹1,80,000.
(With inputs from Bloomberg)
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
About the Author
Asit Manohar has nearly two decades of experience in the mainstream media. In this period, he has served esteemed media organisations like NDTV Profit, The Economic Times, and Zee Business. He has been working at LiveMint Digital since April 2021. During these two decades of journey in mainstream media, Asit has mainly covered external affairs, markets and personal finance. However, his earliest beats include railways, SME, MSME, and politics (Congress beat). Some of his features on political, economic, and foreign policy are documented in the parliamentary records. <br><br> While pursuing his MA (Mass Communication, Session 2004-06), Asit began his media career as a stringer at All India Radio in Varanasi. At AIR Varanasi, Asit worked with the Gyanvani, Yuvvani and Vividh Bharti teams. After working for nearly one year at AIR Varanasi, he shifted to print journalism and started working as a stringer for the HT Media Ltd, Varanasi. At HT Media Ltd in Varanasi, he covered the BHU beat. <br><br> Asit has also worked with some brokerage houses. He has worked with Religare Broking and India Infoline, where he assisted the research team in developing and executing trade strategies for intraday cash, F&O, and commodities. <br><br> Asit is a Gold Medalist in MA (Mass Communication) from BHU, Varanasi. He did his BSc. (Hons) in Mathematics from Magadh University, Bodh Gaya. Asit was a National Talent Scholarship holder during his senior secondary studies (1988-91).
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