Gold rate drops 1% on MCX on profit booking; silver prices crash 3% after US CPI data; is it the right time to buy?

Gold price today: Gold rate dropped by almost 1% on the MCX in the morning trade on Monday, February 16, on profit booking after rising by 2% in the previous session amid an uptick in the US dollar following an in-line US inflation data. MCX gold April contracts dropped by nearly ₹1,200, or 0.76%, to ₹1,54,717 per 10 grams, while MCX silver March futures crashed by ₹8,300, or 3.40%, to ₹2,36,100 per kg.

Gold and silver prices have been volatile of late due to volatility in the dollar index and geopolitical developments.

The dollar index inched up 0.10% to 97, making greenback-backed bullion expensive for buyers in overseas currencies.

The dollar index moved up after the US CPI (consumer price index) moderated in January, weighing on expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in its next policy meeting in March.

The US CPI rose 0.2% in January after an unrevised 0.3% rise in December. On a yearly basis, U.S. inflation came in at 2.4% in January, down from the previous month's 2.7%.

The market is discounting at least two US Fed rate cuts this year in the second half of the year.

Investors now await the release of FOMC meeting minutes, the US GDP advance estimate, and PCE inflation data for further clues on the US Fed interest rate trajectory.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments remain a critical factor for the yellow metal. Market participants are keeping a close eye on US-Iran talks, as well as negotiations aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war.

Is it the right time to buy gold?

Experts believe long-term investors should continue buying gold on dips as geopolitical uncertainties, central bank buying, and stock market volatility keep the outlook for the yellow metal healthy.

"MCX Gold April futures are expected to weaken to ₹1,54,000 per 10 grams. However, despite recent volatility, the precious metal remained supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, strong central bank buying, and investor flight from sovereign bonds and currencies," said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities.

Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research suggests buying gold on dips around ₹1,54,000 and ₹1,53,300 range with a stop loss below ₹1,52,000 for the target of ₹1,56,600 and ₹1,57,500, and avoiding trading in silver due to very high volatility.

According to Jain, gold has support at $5,010 and $4,970, while resistance is at $5,080 and $5,122 per troy ounce, and silver has support at $74.40 and $72, while resistance is at $80 and $82.40 per troy ounce in today’s session.

MCX gold has support at ₹1,54,400 and ₹1,53,150, while resistance is at ₹1,56,800 and ₹1,58,200. MCX silver has support at ₹2,38,800 and ₹2,32,000, and resistance is at ₹2,49,100 and ₹2,55,000, said Jain.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.