MCX gold, silver hit record highs on dollar's weakness; is it the right time to buy bullion?

Gold price today: Rates of gold and silver jumped to their fresh record highs on the MCX on Monday's (September 29) session on the dollar's weakness and rate cut hopes. MCX Gold December futures hit a record high of ₹1,16,497 per 10 grams, while MCX Silver December futures hit an all-time high of ₹1,44,179 per kg.

Around 5 pm, MCX Gold traded 1.25 per cent higher at ₹1,16,330 per 10 grams, while MCX Silver was 1.36 per cent up at ₹1,43,824 per kg.

The dollar index dropped over 0.20 per cent, making gold cheaper in overseas currencies and enhancing its demand.

International gold prices also hit an all-time high due to a weaker dollar and growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will further reduce interest rates this year.

According to Reuters, the CME FedWatch Tool suggests the market is currently pricing in a 90 per cent chance of a Fed cut in October and a 65 per cent probability of another cut in December.

“Gold prices climbed to a record high, driven by growing expectations of further US rate cuts and a weaker dollar. On the trade front, President Donald Trump last week announced a new round of tariffs targeting imported drugs, trucks, and furniture, set to take effect on October 1, adding further uncertainty to the economic outlook,” said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities.

Meanwhile, the US core PCE price index data were in line with expectations. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) rose 0.3 per cent in August, versus the prior 0.2 per cent rise in July. On a year-on-year basis, PCE inflation increased 2.7 per cent after climbing 2.6 per cent in July.

Is it the right time to buy gold?

Experts expect gold prices to remain volatile in the near term, but they believe a dip in gold prices is a buying opportunity as the yellow metal's medium—to long-term outlook remains positive.

"We expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week amid volatility in the dollar index, volatility in the global financial markets and ahead of the US non-farm employment data," said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research.

"We suggest buying gold around ₹1,14400 with a stop loss of ₹1,13,850 for the target of ₹1,15,350-1,16,000 and also suggest buying silver around ₹1,40,400 with a stop loss of ₹1,38,800 for the target of ₹1,43,300-1,45,000," said Jain.

According to Jain, gold has support at $3,784-3,755, while resistance is at $3,824-3,850 per troy ounce, and silver has support at $46.10-45.55, while resistance is at $47.00-47.70 per troy ounce in today’s session.

MCX Gold has support at ₹1,14,200-1,13,650 and resistance at ₹1,15,400-1,16,000, while MCX Silver has support at ₹1,40,400-1,39,100 and resistance at ₹1,43,300-1,45,000, said Jain.

According to Rahul Kalantri, VP of commodities at Mehta Equities, gold has support at $3,730-3,710 while resistance at $3,785-3,820. Silver has support at $45.70-45.50 while resistance is at $46.45-46.80.

In INR, gold has support at ₹1,13,400-1,13,080, while resistance is at ₹1,14,350-1,14,700. Silver has support at ₹1,41,450-1,41,050, while resistance is at ₹1,42,950, 1,43,800, Kalantri said.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.