Gold rate drops on MCX as dollar rises amid US-Iran war; strong US jobs data dents US Fed rate cut hopes

Gold price today: Gold rate declined on the MCX on Monday, April 6, morning, amid profit booking, driven by a stronger US dollar, as the US-Iran war keeps crude oil prices at higher levels, raising inflationary concerns. Moreover, strong US jobs data further dimmed the prospects of a US Fed rate cut in the near future.

MCX gold June futures dropped by ₹1,400, or nearly 1%, to ₹1,48,298 per 10 grams, while MCX silver May contracts declined by over ₹2,800, or more than 1%, to ₹2,29,651 per kg in early deals.

The dollar index remained above 100, keeping the yellow metal expensive in overseas markets. The rise in the dollar index is largely because of soaring crude oil prices. Since crude oil is mostly traded in dollars, a rise incommodity prices increases demand for the dollar.

The crude oil prices traded at a multi-year high. Brent Crude traded near $110 per barrel on Monday morning as the US-Iran war, which began on February 28, entered its sixth week.

Meanwhile, robust U.S. nonfarm payrolls data dimmed hopes of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve this year, which was already weak due to the rising fears of an inflation flare-up amid soaring crude oil prices.

As Reuters reported, U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 1,78,000 jobs in March, the most since December 2024, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%.

Should you buy gold now?

Experts highlight heightened volatility in gold prices. They suggest short-term traders should consider booking profits on the rise.

"We suggest booking profits in long positions on every rise and wait for some more corrective dips for initiating fresh long positions in gold and silver," said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research.

Jain expects gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week amid volatility in the dollar index, rising crude oil prices and the US-Iran war.

According to Jain, gold has support at $4,620 and $4,580 while resistance is at $4,720 and $4,770 per troy ounce, and silver has support at $70.70 and $68, while resistance is at $76 and $78.40 per troy ounce in today’s session.

On the MCX, gold has support at ₹1,47,200 and ₹1,45,500 and resistance is at ₹1,51,100 and ₹1,53,350, while silver has support at ₹2,28,000 and ₹2,22,400 and resistance is at ₹2,37,700 and ₹2,42,200, said Jain.

Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, highlighted that gold rates are down roughly 12% since the US-Iran conflict began, as surging energy prices fueled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations of interest rate hikes.

According to Trivedi, MCX gold June futures are likely to drop to ₹1,47,500 per 10 grams as the trend is weak in the world markets. On the flip side, ₹1,49,500 per 10 grams is the resistance, Trivedi said.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.