Gold rate rises 1% on MCX as US bond yields, dollar fall; US payroll, inflation prints in focus; key levels to watch

Gold price today: Gold rate rose by 1% on the MCX on Wednesday, February 11, morning, amid positive global cues and healthy spot buying. A decline in US bond yields and a rise in the dollar increased gold's safe-haven appeal.

MCX gold April contracts rose by more than ₹1,600, or 1%, to ₹1,58,436 per 10 grams, while MCX silver March contracts jumped by nearly ₹8,300, or 3.3%, to ₹2,60,838 per kg.

US gold futures for April delivery also gained by 1% to 5,079 per troy ounce following a decline in U.S. Treasury bond yields after December retail sales signalled the US economy may be weakening.

The dollar index fell by 0.15% to 96.66, making greenback-backed bullion cheaper for buyers in other currencies.

Gold and silver prices rose amid growing concerns about the health of the US economy. Moreover, this has fuelled expectations of US Fed rate cuts, which is a major positive for gold prices.

U.S. retail sales were unchanged in December, while retail sales data for October were revised down by the Commerce Department. According to experts, the recent retail sales data suggest that consumers are cutting their expenses amid rising cost of living, partly due to the impact of US tariffs on imported goods.

"Consumer spending has finally caught up with consumer sentiment, and not in a good way," Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Northlight Asset Management, noted.

"For months, consumer confidence numbers have been disappointing, and consumers have been complaining about the cost of everything – and yet they kept spending. However, this month’s data show that consumers are no longer increasing their spending at a relentless pace. If this is a more permanent change in spending patterns, then it could be the canary in the coalmine that signals a more serious slowdown," said Zaccarelli.

The focus is now on the January non-farm payrolls report, due later on Wednesday, and on inflation data, due on Friday. Both these prints will offer more cues on the US Fed interest rate trajectory.

"December retail sales fell short of forecasts, signalling a slowdown in consumer spending and reinforcing concerns about slowing growth. Markets have priced in a higher probability of three Fed rate cuts this year, up from two just a week ago," Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, noted.

"MCX gold April is likely to stay elevated to ₹1,58,000 per 10 gram as the bullion pack in the international market is having a positive trend," said Trivedi.

Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research suggests buying gold on dips until it holds ₹1,54,000 on a closing basis for the upside target of ₹1,59,000 and buying silver on dips until it holds ₹2,44,000 on a closing basis for the upside target of ₹2,60,000.

According to Jain, gold has support at $5,000 and $4,970, while resistance is at $5,080 and $5,122 per troy ounce, and silver has support at $78 and $74.40, while resistance is at $84.40 and $88 per troy ounce in today’s session.

MCX gold has support at ₹1,55,500 and ₹1,54,000 and resistance is at ₹1,57,700 and ₹1,59,000, while silver has support at ₹2,48,800 and ₹2,44,000, and resistance is at ₹2,55,500 and ₹2,60,000, said Jain.

Read all market-related news here

Read more stories by Nishant Kumar

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.