Gold rates at record high on MCX, driven by US Fed rate cut hopes; silver jumps over 3%

Gold price today: Gold rates hovered near record high, while silver jumped more than 2% to hit its fresh high on the MCX in morning trade on Wednesday, January 14, as softer US inflation prints fuelled hopes for further rate cuts by the US Fed this year.

MCX gold February futures rose by more than 0.50% to hit a record high of ₹1,43,017 per 10 grams, while MCX silver March futures jumped more than 3% to their record high of ₹2,83,598 per kg.

As news agency Reuters reported, the US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year in December, falling short of analysts' expectations of a 0.3% and 2.7% rise, respectively.

The latest inflation prints and mixed jobs market trends supported expectations that the US Federal Reserve will reduce benchmark interest rates this year, driving gold prices higher. However, a cut in January looks unlikely.

"Despite a softer CPI print than expected for December 2025, the Fed is widely expected to stay on hold in January 2026, while the market increasingly focuses on Fed independence worries along with labour market evolution," said Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist at Emkay Global.

The biggest driver for gold is increased geopolitical risks, stemming from the US stance on Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland. Besides, hopes for an end to the Russia-Ukraine war have also waned.

Iran is witnessing its biggest protests in years, and according to a Reuters report, Trump has urged Iranians to keep protesting, saying 'help is on its way'. Meanwhile, Russia has sharply criticised what it called “subversive external interference” in Iran’s internal affairs.

"Civil unrest in Iran and geopolitical tensions are also supporting safe-haven buying for both precious metals. The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on Trump tariffs later today could give further directions to precious metal markets," said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research.

"We are experiencing very high price volatility in both precious metals, but silver prices could hold their support level of $74 per troy ounce, and gold prices could also hold their support level of $4,380 per troy ounce on a closing basis. We expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week amid volatility in the dollar index, ahead of the U.S. Supreme Court decision on tariffs and geopolitical tensions," Jain said.

Gold and silver: Key levels to watch today

According to Jain, gold has support at $4,584 and $4,555, while resistance is at $4,634 and $4,670 per troy ounce. Silver has support at $84.40 and $81, while resistance is at $89.20 and $92 per troy ounce in today’s session.

On the MCX, Jain stated that gold has support at ₹1,41,400 and ₹1,40,700, and resistance is at ₹1,43,000 and ₹1,44,200. Meanwhile, silver has support at ₹2,72,000 and ₹2,68,000, and resistance is at ₹2,80,000 and ₹2,85,500.

"We suggest buying gold on dips around ₹1,41,700 and ₹1,41,100 with a stop loss below ₹1,40,000 for the target of ₹1,43,000 and ₹1,44,200 and buying silver around ₹2,72,000 and ₹2,66,000 with a stop loss below ₹2,61,000 for the target of ₹2,80,000 and ₹2,85,000," said Jain.

Rahul Kalantri, VP of commodities at Mehta Equities, said gold has support at $4,520 and $4,455 while resistance is at $4,640 and $4,690. Silver has support at $86.10 and $84.75, while resistance is at $90.15 and $92.40.

In INR, Kalantri said gold has support at ₹1,39,550 and ₹1,37,310, while resistance is at ₹1,44,350 and ₹1,46,670. Silver has support at ₹2,69,810 and ₹2,54,170, while resistance is at ₹2,79,810 and ₹2,84,470.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.