Gold prices rise, silver drops on profit booking as focus shifts to US inflation data, US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech

Gold and silver prices today: Gold prices rose in early deals on the MCX on Monday, supported by a stable dollar amid a decline in crude oil prices, while the rates of silver declined due to profit booking, with focus shifting to the US inflation prints this week and a speech by US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

MCX gold October futures were 0.42% up at ₹1,63,120 per 10 grams, while MCX silver September contracts were 0.58% down at ₹2,45,171 per kg around 9:35 AM.

Oil price benchmark Brent crude futures dropped 2% to trade below $93 per barrel as investors booked profits ahead of an anticipated US announcement of additional sanctions against Iran.

The dollar index moved slightly from the previous close, hovering near multi-month lows, while US long-duration bond yields eased after the Treasury's announcement to buy back more long bonds, increasing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.

The focus is now on the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, on Wednesday, 26 August, and the US Fed Chair Warsh's speech at the annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this week for cues on the Fed's interest rate trajectory.

The stalled US-Iran talks remain a key driver of global gold prices. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that he will hold a press conference on Monday to explain new US sanctions against Iran, which will be the "toughest” in history.

"The strength in MCX is closely supported by international gold, where bullion has also remained firm amid a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar and continued weakness in longer-duration Treasury bonds. The 30-year Treasury yield had earlier touched a 19-year high of 5.337%, but Treasury buybacks triggered a temporary decline in yields," Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services.

Singh added that renewed bond selling and US debt surpassing $40 trillion have kept fiscal concerns elevated, supporting demand for gold as a hedge against financial and currency risks.

Gold and silver prices: Key levels to watch

Singh pointed out that MCX gold continues to maintain strong bullish momentum, trading near three-month highs after a sharp weekly rally of more than 5%. The recent breakout above the descending trendline has strengthened the overall structure, with prices now approaching the next resistance near ₹1,64,500.

"A sustained move above this level could open the way towards ₹1,67,000. On the downside, the breakout zone remains an important support, and the broader strategy continues to favour buy on dips as long as the price structure remains positive," said Singh.

Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research said MCX gold has support at ₹1,61,100 and ₹1,59,800, and resistance at ₹1,63,600 and ₹1,64,850, while silver has support at ₹2,44,000 and ₹2,41,200, and resistanceat ₹2,49,100 and ₹2,52,500.

"We suggest buying gold around ₹1,60,600 and ₹1,59,500, with a stop loss below ₹1,57,700 for the target of ₹1,63,600 and ₹1,64,850 and buying silver around ₹2,44,000 and ₹2,41,000 with a stop loss below ₹2,37,000 for the target of ₹2,49,000 and ₹2,52,500," said Jain.

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Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.