Gold rate today in India jumps over ₹17,000 from the weekly low. Is this a right time to buy gold?

Gold rate today: Following a combination of factors such as the Israel-US-Iran war, elevated US Treasury yields, volatile crude oil prices, a strong US Dollar (USD), and the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve and other central banks across the world, gold prices finished the week almost flat. In India, the MCX gold rate finished at ₹1,47,270 per 10 gm, logging a solid recovery of over ₹17,500 per 10 gm after hitting the weekly low of ₹1,29,595 per 10 gm.

In the international market, the COMEX gold rate ended above the $4,500 per troy ounce. However, despite ending above $4,500 levels, the precious yellow metal recorded a weekly loss of 1.85%.

Gold rate today: Important triggers

On the reasons for weakness in gold rates today, Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, said the recent weakness can be attributed to a combination of macro and cross-asset pressures. She said that persistent Israel-US-Iran war tensions in the West Asia region have paradoxically weighed on bullion, as investors have preferred to raise cash and liquidate gold holdings to offset losses in risk assets. At the same time, elevated US Treasury yields have reduced the relative appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, further capping upside momentum.

Easing inflation fears on the cooling crude oil prices

However, the SS WealthStreet expert maintained that a cool-off in crude oil prices from highs near $120 per barrel to around $93 per barrel for Brent crude during the beginning of the week provided a degree of relief to inflation expectations and supported a rebound in gold from lower levels. This pullback in energy prices helped revive some buying interest in the precious metal from an oversold territory.

Israel-US-Iran war in focus

Pointing towards the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, Sugandha Sachdeva said, “The US has continued to build military presence in the West Asian region, even as the US administration has proposed a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran, alongside postponing potential strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6. Simultaneously, Iran has laid out its own set of conditions, including sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and security guarantees, terms that appear difficult for the US to accommodate.”

Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet said that despite ongoing diplomatic signalling, hostilities have persisted, including fresh strikes between Israel and Iran and continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. The effective closure of this critical energy artery continues to embed a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices. As a result, while crude corrected during the week, it still retains underlying support, limiting the extent of downside.

Dent to US Fed rate cut hopes

Highlighting the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks across the world, Sugandha Sachdeva said, 'From a macro standpoint, central banks globally, including the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, have maintained a hawkish bias amid persistent inflation risks, particularly those stemming from energy supply disruptions. This reinforces expectations of tighter monetary conditions, which remain a headwind for gold."

Is this a right time to buy gold?

On the outlook of the gold price today, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said that the broader structure still reflects underlying weakness, with geopolitical tensions offering only intermittent safe-haven support and limiting sustained upside.

“A sustained move above $4,600 could extend the rally toward $4,680–$4,750, with further upside potential toward $4,850, where stronger supply is expected. On the downside, a break below $4,300 may accelerate weakness toward the $4,100–$4,150 zone,” the Enrich Money CEO said.

Ponmudi R of Enrich Money said the gold rates in India continue to trade above the ₹1,40,000 support band, indicating underlying buying interest despite intraday volatility. It suggests resilience at higher levels, keeping the broader tone constructive but cautious.

On factors that may dictate gold prices in the near-term, Sugandha Sachdeva said, “The interplay between crude oil prices, geopolitical developments, and monetary policy expectations will be critical. In the near term, gold is expected to witness sharp swings with dips attracting buying interest while rallies are likely to face selling pressure.”

The SS WealthStreet founder said that the outlook for the coming week remains cautiously weak, with prices highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. A credible ceasefire could trigger a decline in oil prices and ease inflation fears, potentially supporting gold. Conversely, any escalation could push crude higher, strengthen the US dollar due to increased demand for energy imports, and weigh further on bullion.

Sharing her outlook for gold rate today in India, Sugandha Sachdeva said, “On the domestic front, the gold prices are likely to find support near the ₹1,35,000 to ₹1,33,500 zone, with a strong resistance zone seen around ₹1,57,600. A sustained break beyond this range will be required to establish a clear directional trend.”

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.