Gold rate in India dips ₹19,000 from record high. Opportunity to buy amid US-Iran war?

Gold rate today: Amid escalating tension in the US-Iran war, the MCX gold rate remained sideways to positive last week and finished at ₹1,61,675 per 10 gm, around ₹19,000 away from the lifetime high of ₹1,80,779 per 10 gm. In the international market, the COMEX gold price ended at $5,158.70 per troy ounce, $468.10 away from the lifetime high of $5.626.80 per ounce.

According to market experts, gold prices have remained sideways to positive despite the escalation of the US-Iran war, as soaring crude oil prices have driven the US Dollar to regain ground in recent months. The US Dollar Index is inching toward 100, acting as a headwind to the rally in gold prices today. However, they maintained that gold has investment value and Donald Trump has already started dropping hints that the US will move to Cuba once it's done with Iran. So, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty are expected to persist even after the US-Iran war ends. They said the gold rate today is in a broader range of ₹1,37,000 to ₹1,65,000 per 10 gm. On breaking and sustaining above ₹1,65,000, we can expect a fresh round of rally in the gold prices across global markets.

Gold price today: Donald Trump factor

Pointing towards the Donald Trump factor and its dominance in the gold price rally, Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, said that ever since President Donald Trump assumed office, markets have been navigating a series of unpredictable policy moves ranging from aggressive tariff threats, criticism of the US Supreme Court for striking down certain trade tariffs, the imposition of a 10% global tariff framework, and geopolitical interventions including actions in Venezuela and renewed strategic interest in territories such as Greenland.

Expecting the safe-haven demand for gold and silver prices to exist even after the end of the US-Iran war, Sugandha Sachdeva said, "The uncertainty has deepened further with the ongoing Iran-Israel-US conflict, particularly at a time when negotiations were underway to curb Iran’s nuclear program. In addition, the US administration is now shifting its focus toward Cuba, where the country is already facing a severe fuel crisis following disruptions to Venezuelan crude supplies due to US military actions. With Cuba’s alternative energy partners unable to fully compensate for the lost Venezuelan oil flows, the situation has weakened the country economically, and Washington’s attempts to push for political change could potentially create further instability in the region. Such persistent geopolitical uncertainty typically acts as a supportive factor for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver."

On why gold prices failed to fly despite escalation in the US-Iran war, Sugandha Sachdeva said the primary reason behind this pause has been the strengthening US dollar, which has been buoyed by rising crude oil prices and concerns that elevated energy costs could reignite global inflation.

High inflation dents US Fed rate cut buzz

Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet said that inflation risks have pushed back expectations of near-term rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, with markets now anticipating the next potential rate cut only around September or October, compared to earlier expectations of July. As both gold and the US dollar compete for safe-haven demand, the recent surge in the dollar has capped gains in precious metals.

"Additionally, during periods of sharp sell-offs in risky assets, investors often liquidate positions in gold and silver to meet margin calls, which has also contributed to the recent pullback," Sugandha added.

Is it the right time to buy gold?

Unveiling the investment strategy for gold investors, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said, "The daily chart reflects continued bullish momentum, with prices holding comfortably above key support levels, including the EMA 50 close and prior consolidation zones around $5,000–$5,100. Recent price action has pushed toward the $5,185 resistance region, reinforcing the ongoing uptrend."

The Enrich Money expert said the broader bullish structure remains intact, supported by persistent central bank accumulation, strong safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, and expectations of global shifts toward accommodative monetary policy. The $5,000–$5,100 zone now acts as strong near-term support, while a decisive breakout above $5,200 could accelerate the next leg higher toward $5,400–$5,600 or beyond into mid-2026.

"As long as prices continue to trade within the rising long-term trend channel, the overall outlook remains decisively bullish, with dips likely presenting strong accumulation opportunities within this extended bull cycle," Ponmudi R of Enrich Money said.

Outlook for the MCX gold rate today

"In the domestic market, prices are expected to remain well supported in the ₹1,57,000 to ₹1,58,000 per 10 gm range in the near-term. Key support for Gold is seen at ₹1,37,000 per 10 gm mark. For renewed bullish momentum, however, prices need to sustain above $5,280 per ounce globally and ₹1,65,000 per 10 gm in the domestic market, which could open the door for the next leg of the rally," Sugandha Sachdeva said.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.