Gold shines, braving odds, rises 17% from June lows — What’s behind the jump? Will it impact Fed rate cut decision?

Gold rate today: Following a sharp sell-off in US long-term bonds and a dent in hopes of a US Fed rate hike amid renewed inflation concerns, the gold price saw a strong rebound last week. In the international market, the COMEX gold price today stands nearly 16% above its June 2026 low of $3,942 per ounce. In the domestic market, the MCX gold rate today stands at around ₹1,62,500 per 10 gm, nearly 17% higher than its June lows of nearly ₹1,40,000 per 10 gm. Looking at the USD-INR conversion, the Indian National Rupee (INR) settled at 95.71 against one US Dollar (USD) on Friday, about 1.20% below its July 2026 peak of 96.88.

What's fueling the gold price today

Speaking on the triggers driving gold price today, Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, said that a confluence of structural and macroeconomic factors has fuelled this upswing. Persistent central bank accumulation continues to provide a strong pillar of demand, as reserve managers seek greater diversification amid geopolitical uncertainty and rising sovereign debt. At the same time, the return of investment flows into gold ETFs has provided an additional source of demand, signalling renewed investor appetite after the earlier phase of outflows.

Sugandha said that the resulting surge in yields has tightened financial conditions across the economy, raising borrowing costs for the US government, companies, and households. She said that the US Treasury moves suggest that authorities are prepared to provide liquidity support when market functioning deteriorates.

The SS WealthStreet expert said that a major catalyst for the recent acceleration has been the sharp reduction in expectations of another US interest-rate hike at the September Federal Reserve meeting. Signs of weakness in the US labour market, coupled with easing inflationary pressures, have reduced expectations of monetary tightening. This has weighed on the US dollar and diminished the interest-rate headwind for non-yielding gold, helping investment demand regain momentum.

US Treasury's move renews inflation concern

Pointing towards the renewed fear of inflation, Sugandha Sacheva said that persistent fiscal deficits, mounting government debt, inflation concerns and heavy Treasury issuance have prompted investors to demand a higher risk premium for holding long-duration US debt. The resulting surge in yields has tightened financial conditions across the economy, raising borrowing costs for the US government, companies, and households.

Sugandha said that the US Treasury announced that it would double the size of certain long-end Treasury buyback operations to at least $4 billion per operation, effective September 9, with the stated objective of improving liquidity and market functioning at the long end of the yield curve. Although the amount remains relatively small compared with the overall size of the US Treasury market, the announcement carries an important signalling effect. It suggests that authorities are prepared to provide liquidity support when market functioning deteriorates.

“This creates an interesting dynamic for gold. Ordinarily, rising US Treasury yields, particularly rising real yields, are negative for gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. However, when yields rise because investors demand greater compensation for fiscal deficits, excessive government borrowing, inflation, and sovereign debt risk, gold can simultaneously attract demand as an alternative store of value. On the other hand, if policy measures help stabilise long-term yields and exert downward pressure on the dollar, the macro backdrop becomes even more supportive for the precious metal,” Sugandha added.

USD vs INR outlook

Expecting further appreciation in the Indian Rupee, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, “The US Treasury's buyback move is expected to weigh on the long-term US bond yield and the US Dollar. So, the Indian currency is expected to gain more lost ground in the near-term.”

Asked about the major levels that a currency trader must know, Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, said, “Immediate resistance stands at 95.75–95.8 near previous highs; a move above could rebuild momentum toward 95.9–96, renewing pressure on the rupee. On the downside, 95.6–95.5 acts as immediate support, with a stronger base near 95.4.”

Dent to US Fed rate hike hopes

Pointing towards the possible-looking outcome from the US Fed meeting next month, Sugandha Sachdeva said, “Another significant trigger has emerged from the US Treasury market, where a sharp sell-off in long-duration government bonds pushed 30-year Treasury yields to multi-year highs of 5.33% recently.”

“Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address will be the pivotal near-term catalyst. A dovish or neutral tone could extend support for bullion by reinforcing expectations of a policy pause or eventual easing, while a hawkish surprise could trigger a rebound in the US dollar and put renewed pressure on gold and silver,” said Ponmudi R of Enrich Money.

Outlook for gold rate today

Expecting the gold price rally to further continue, Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet said the August rally appears to be driven not by any single catalyst, but by a powerful combination of persistent central-bank demand, improving ETF flows, fading expectations of US monetary tightening, moderating inflationary pressures, concerns over US fiscal and debt sustainability, and increasing stress across global sovereign bond markets.

“These factors are reinforcing gold's appeal both as a traditional safe-haven asset and as a hedge against fiscal, monetary and geopolitical uncertainty,” Sugandha said, adding, “In the international market, the $4620-$4630 per ounce zone is likely to act as an immediate resistance area, and a decisive breakout above the $4620-$44630 per ounce resistance zone in the international market could open the door towards the $4900 per ounce mark over the medium term.”

Sugandha added that in the domestic market, the broader structure remains constructive as long as prices hold above the crucial ₹1,54,000 per 10 gm support zone. A sustained breakout above the recent high around ₹1,62,700 per 10 gm would signal a continuation of the prevailing uptrend and could pave the way for prices to test the ₹1,70,000- ₹1,72,000 per 10 gm zone in the coming months.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational and informational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified financial experts before making any investment decisions.