Gold, Silver Rate Update: US gold prices slip below $5200; silver crashes 8% — What's the outlook ahead?

Brokerage firm ICICI Bank Research, in its latest report, expects gold prices to trade in the USD 5,200/oz to USD 5,500/oz range in the near term, with upside risks to these projections.

The prospect of supply-side disruptions to shipping could mean that base metal prices also trade with an upside bias.

“Risk aversion should support the safe-haven appeal for precious metals ensuring that gold prices drift higher moving towards the USD 5500/oz level,” said the brokerage.

Gift Nifty was trading around the 24,145 level, a discount of nearly 789 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close of 24,934, indicating a gap-down start for the Indian stock market indices on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, key markets in the Asia-Pacific region closed with deep losses in Tuesday's session, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropping 3.06% and the Kospi index being down even sharper by 7.24%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has lost 1.25% of its value in trade, and Shanghai has tumbled 1.43%.

On Monday, the Nifty 50 closed 1.24% lower at the 24,865 level, while the S&P Sensex lost 1.29% to settle at 80,238. The broader markets also finished with sharp losses, with both the Nifty Midcap 100 index and the Nifty Smallcap 100 index falling over 1.5%.

Gold prices have staged a sharp rebound from the day’s low. The April futures contract on MCX recovered ₹3,104 per 10 grams to trade at ₹1,61,750 as of 9:15 PM. Earlier in the day, the contract had fallen to ₹1,58,716.

The US key averages are trading with deep losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1,135 points, or 2.3%. If that holds, it would mark the blue-chip index’s first 1,000-point decline since April 10, 2025.

The S&P 500 fell by 2.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 2.3%. The weakness comes as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran continue to escalate, keeping crude oil prices elevated.

Investors are worried that rising energy prices may ripple through the economy, pushing up costs at a time when investors are hoping inflation will ease enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again later this year.

The March silver futures contract on MCX has recouped some of its early losses, as the contract was trading ₹15,000 lower at ₹263,450 as of 9:30 PM. From the day’s low of ₹257,800, the white metal has recovered ₹5,650.

After nine consecutive months of advance, silver closed February 3.18% lower, and with today’s drop, it has already lost nearly ₹19,000 per kilogram in the first two trading sessions of March.

While bullion is regarded as a hedge against inflation over the long term, higher inflation can also translate into higher real yields and a firmer dollar, keeping borrowing costs elevated for longer and dampening appetite for ​the non-yielding metal.

Traders expect ​the U.S. Federal Reserve ⁠to hold rates at the end of its next two-day meeting on March 18, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, Reuters reported.

The ​U. dollar rose 0.9% to a more than one-month high, while US Treasury yields shot higher.

A stronger US currency typically makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies, and higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding the ​non-yielding metal.

Gold, often deemed a safe-haven asset by investors during times of crisis, fell $230 per troy ounce (Comex) to $5,081 per ounce on March 3. The March silver futures contract on Comex crashed $10.79 per troy ounce to reach the day’s low of $78.06.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, jumped to 99.38, marking its highest level since January 20, supported by safe-haven flows.

The April gold futures on MCX fell ₹6,425 to the day's low of ₹1,59,649 per 10 grams, erasing all the gains the yellow metal had made in the previous two sessions. However, gold has remained higher over the last 10 months.

The March silver futures contract declined even more sharply, falling ₹18,471 per kilogram to the day's low of ₹2,60,010. In the previous trading session, prices came within striking distance of the ₹3 lakh mark.

The dollar rallied by the most in nearly five weeks after the US attack on Iran set off a rush into havens and pushed up Treasury yields as a surge in oil prices threatens to worsen inflation.

Bloomberg’s dollar index rose as much as 1% before paring the advance to end day up 0.7%, the best rally since Jan. 30. The US currency gained against all of its major peers, with the Swiss franc and the euro both down 1% or more amid concern about the impacts of higher energy costs. Japan, another major oil importer, saw the yen slide 0.9%.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Definitely gold share or a weightage in a portfolio could be a bit higher than silver, given the tensions that we have, opined Manav Modi, Commodities Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

In times of sharp geopolitical stress, gold generally leads in absolute safe-haven demand, but silver can outperform in percentage terms due to higher volatility and industrial demand dynamics. Gold is the traditional safe haven, investors flock to it first when risk spikes. Silver, while also a safe haven, has higher beta: it tends to gain more on the upside but also fall harder if risk sentiment improves. However, silver’s recent moves show sharper percentage gains compared with gold on renewed safe-haven buying.

— Nirpendra Yadav, Sr. Commodity Research Analyst at Bonanza

Gold and silver remains in a primary uptrend on the weekly timeframe, and prices rebounded after three weeks of profit booking. The prices gained with strong buying momentum last where MACD is positive and showing strong buying momentum while RSI is sustaining above 80, an oversold price condition not a sign of reversal. The broader structure remains bullish as price is still trading well above the 20, 50, 100 and 200-week EMAs, all of which are positively aligned.

The chart structure and indicators of silver futures showing a bullish momentum on the weekly chart, indicating further upside towards 325,000-360,000/ per KG in the upcoming week. Silver has support at 276,000.

Gold is likely to maintain the uptrend and may move towards 180,000 to 190,000/10gm in the upcoming weeks. Gold has support at 160000.

— Nirpendra Yadav, Sr. Commodity Research Analyst at Bonanza

The dollar is absolutely roaring away, as are U.S. Treasuries, and that's providing a strong headwind to gold and particularly silver, independent analyst Ross Norman was quoted as saying by Reuters.

Expect volatility to remain elevated. In case of further escalation, gold could test ₹1,70,000 per 10 grams and silver may approach ₹3,00,000 per kg in the near term. However, any diplomatic breakthrough could prompt sharp profit-booking, given the rapid 3–6% rally recorded within a short span.

— Gaurav Garg, Research Analyst at Lemonn Markets Desk

MCX gold futures for April expiry opened with a 3% cut at ₹161,092 per 10 grams as against its last close of ₹166,074. MCX was closed for trading in the morning session on account of a public holiday to mark the festival of Holi.

At the same time, silver prices on MCX traded with a steeper decline of 6% as it traded at ₹261,773 per kilogram.

A diplomatic breakthrough in US–Iran tensions could trigger a short-term correction in gold and silver, but it is unlikely to alter the structural trajectory of the metals. It is important to understand that gold and silver are not rallying solely because of the war — the conflict is merely a catalyst accelerating an already strong macro setup. The underlying drivers remain intact: central bank buying, de-dollarisation trends, fiscal expansion in major economies, and persistent geopolitical fragmentation.

— Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS

US spot gold and silver prices came under intense selling pressure as the strength in the US dollar weighed on the precious metals. The US spot gold price declined almost 3% to below $5200 while silver rate plunged nearly 11% to below $80

Spot gold prices fell on Tuesday as a stronger dollar offset safe-haven demand driven by an escalating U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran that has heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Spot gold was down 1.4% at $5,252.05 an ounce by 0931 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery lost 0.9% to $5,263.80.

In other precious metals, silver fell 6.5% to $83.63 an ounce after climbing to a more than four-week high on Monday. Platinum lost 7.5% to $2,131.30 and palladium was down 4.1% at $1,694.75.

(Source: Reuters)

Silver is likely to open with increased volatility after Holi, as markets remain sensitive to the US-Israel-Iran conflict as well as normal market drivers. Heightened geopolitical tensions typically increase safe-haven demand for precious metals, and silver may benefit from risk-off flows if the threat of escalation remains. Any threat to Middle East energy supply routes would lift crude oil prices, bringing about inflation worries and indirectly supporting silver as an inflation hedge.

However, gains may be contained if the USD strengthens sharply amid global uncertainty, as a stronger USD can put pressure on metal prices in the short term. Industrial demand remains a supportive medium-term factor, but near-term direction will be driven largely by headlines related to the conflict and broader risk sentiment.

Silver’s is likely to be cautiously positive, but traders need to be prepared for high volatility and price swings depending on geopolitical headlines and currency movements.

— Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead, VT Markets

Gold prices are trading close to recent highs, gaining around 2–3% in the last few sessions mainly due to rising Iran–Israel–US tensions, which increased safe-haven buying. In the short term, prices may stay firm if geopolitical risks continue. However, if the situation cools down, some profit booking or a temporary correction can be seen.

In the near term, a strong US dollar may limit upside, as gold generally moves opposite to the dollar. If the dollar strengthens further, gold could face pressure.

Medium to long term outlook remains positive. Global investor allocation to gold is still low at around 2–3%^ of total financial assets, leaving room for higher allocation. Central banks are buying heavily, averaging close to 1,000 tonnes per year. At the same time, global debt has crossed $300 trillion*, raising fiscal and currency risks. Ongoing de-dollarisation by some countries is also supporting long-term gold demand.

— Satish Dondapati, Fund Manager, Kotak Mahindra AMC

Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) will trade from 5pm to 11pm today, March 3.

China — the world’s largest silver consumer — has accelerated post-Lunar New Year restocking of silver and copper. According to her, amid trade tensions and inflation concerns, China appears to be strategically stockpiling key metals to secure supply chains for its manufacturing base, especially in EVs and renewables. Export controls and proactive inventory accumulation signal worries about future availability.

Second, Mexico — the world’s largest silver producer — accounts for roughly one-quarter of global output. A significant share of its mines are located in regions impacted by cartel-related violence. Chainani suggested that any escalation in disruptions could materially impact production and logistics, potentially triggering a supply shock in an already tight market.

Renisha Chainani said that silver has delivered a major breakout.

“Silver has confirmed a breakout above the important $95 (~ ₹2,93,000) resistance level, paving the way for a rally toward $100 (~ ₹3,10,000) and subsequently $105 (~ ₹3,25,000). The broader structure remains constructive.”

She added that strong support is now established at $85 (~ ₹2,65,000), and as long as prices hold above this zone, the bullish outlook remains intact.

Renisha Chainani, Head – Research at Augmont, highlighted that the current rally is not purely war-driven.

“Silver is setting up a potential extension toward fresh highs. The rally is underpinned by a persistent multi-year supply deficit, strong industrial demand from electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and solar energy, as well as renewed investment inflows and geopolitical risk premiums.”

Ramaswamy further added that by this week-end we expect Silver in rupee terms to surpass Rs.310000.

"Over the medium term the industrial demand (60% of total silver consumption) destruction, particularly in Solar would be the only caveat to Silver’s upside rally. Solar accounts for 17% of the total demand and only a silver-free solar technology could be the final cure to high prices.

If Silver would sustain above $98 it would activate the momentum zone of $100-$105 range. The 3% war premium in Silver, so far, has been a meagre contributor as compared to the basic fundamental and macroeconomic drivers."

Gold-silver ratio is holding around 60-65x and will continue for a longer period as tight physical conditions persist.

Ramaswamy further opined that silver rose the highest in a month, and a Safe-haven demand followed through on the escalating war in the Middle East. More such strikes and a prolonged conflict has deepened market anxiety. Silver ETFs in India saw a large increase in net inflows in January 2026 (Rs.9500 Crores) compared with December 2025 (Rs.4000 Crores). Silver ETF net inflows were up sharply 139% MOM in Jan 2026.

According to NS Ramaswamy- Head of Commodity & CRM Ventura, Silver is heading into another year of structural deficit, entering its eighth deficit year with inventories at an all-time low and investment demand showing no signs of abating.

“The physical market is unlikely to rebalance quickly. Silver market closed 2025 with a 242 million ounces deficit and expects it to remain undersupplied in 2026. Supportive macro conditions to keep investment demand firm has been a weaker dollar, demand for real assets and easier monetary policy,” he said.

Apart from geopolitical tensions, silver’s rally is being underpinned by strong structural factors. The metal has been witnessing a sustained multi-year supply deficit, even as industrial demand from electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and solar energy keeps gaining momentum.

Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, emphasized that the ongoing uptrend is not solely driven by war-related concerns.

“Silver is setting up a potential extension toward fresh highs. The rally is underpinned by a persistent multi-year supply deficit, strong industrial demand from electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and solar energy, as well as renewed investment inflows and geopolitical risk premiums," Chainani said.

Despite retaining a positive outlook on bullion, investors should not dismiss the possibility of a sharp 3–8% correction if a diplomatic breakthrough materialises.

Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS, noted that an easing of tensions between the US and Iran could partially unwind the safe-haven premium, potentially triggering a 3–5% knee-jerk decline in gold and an even steeper 5–8% drop in silver due to its higher beta.

However, he emphasised that such a move is unlikely to change the long-term structural trajectory of the precious metals.

"It is important to understand that gold and silver are not rallying solely because of the war — the conflict is merely a catalyst accelerating an already strong macro setup. The underlying drivers remain intact: central bank buying, de-dollarisation trends, fiscal expansion in major economies, and persistent geopolitical fragmentation," opined the expert.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said that gold prices continue to hold firmly above the key moving averages in the resistance zone of the prior all-time high gradually edging higher, signaling strengthening momentum.

“COMEX Gold is trading in the $5,300–$5,500 zone following consolidation in recent sessions. Strong buying interest is visible in the $5,100–$5,200 support band. A sustained breakout above $5,500–$5,600 could open the path toward fresh record highs.”

Although a stronger US dollar generally makes dollar-denominated assets like bullion costlier for investors holding other currencies, the inverse correlation is not always consistent. During periods of elevated uncertainty — such as rising geopolitical tensions or wider market volatility — investors often flock to both the dollar and gold, viewing them as safe-haven assets, according to Reuters.

Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director at RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd., President of India Bullion and Jewellers Association Ltd. and Chairman at Jain International Trade Organisation, believes that any recent dips are likely to attract strategic buying rather than aggressive selling.

While short-term volatility will remain high due to geopolitical headlines and US economic data, the broader bias for both metals stays constructive, with corrections likely to be shallow and temporary.

On the gold outlook, Kothari said, “With tensions in the Middle East intensifying and energy prices rising, safe-haven demand for gold continues to build. As long as gold sustains above the $5,200 zone, the momentum favors a move toward $5,450–5,600 in the near term.”

Meanwhile, on the silver outlook, he added, “ After breaking above $95, silver has opened the path toward $100–105 levels. Its higher beta nature suggests it could outperform gold in this phase of the rally.”

KCM Trade chief market analyst Tim Waterer, was quoted as saying by Reuters, “The scope and duration of the conflict remain very ​much open-ended, and with those uncertainties in play, gold is capturing the lion's ⁠share of safe-haven demand.”

"Gold would arguably be trading higher than current levels were it ​not for dollar appreciation ​since the conflict intensified. ⁠Inflation worries are front and centre for traders right now, given the direction of oil prices and reduced shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz," ​Waterer added.

Spot platinum added 0.6% ​to $2,316.50 per ounce, while palladium gained 1.6% to $1,795.08.

The dollar hovered close to a more than ​five-week high reached on Monday, supported by firm demand and cautious market sentiment.

According to Gaurav Garg, Research Analyst at Lemonn Markets Desk, the rally is largely driven by a pronounced risk-off sentiment, as investors rotate capital out of equities and into precious metals to hedge against potential war-related disruptions.

“Expect volatility to remain elevated. In case of further escalation, gold could test ₹1,70,000 per 10 grams and silver may approach ₹3,00,000 per kg in the near term. However, any diplomatic breakthrough could prompt sharp profit-booking, given the rapid 3–6% rally recorded within a short span,” Garg said.

Gold and silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) opened sharply higher on March 2 as investors pivot to safe-haven assets following the US–Israel strikes on Iran, a move that has pushed West Asia into a wider conflict.

Analysts anticipate a volatile session, with heightened geopolitical risk driving fresh inflows into precious metals even as global equities may come under pressure

Rising tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran have sparked a strong flight to safety, lifting gold prices in both international and domestic markets, said Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead at VT Markets. He highlighted that heightened geopolitical risks, concerns over potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, elevated oil prices and a weaker rupee have together created a favourable environment for bullion, with domestic gold nearing the ₹1.7 lakh per 10 grams level.

According to Maxwell, safe-haven demand tends to intensify during periods of conflict as investors move away from riskier assets. He added that a prolonged crisis could push gold to fresh record highs, although any easing of tensions or a stronger dollar may limit gains in the short term. Silver, meanwhile, is tracking gold’s rally but with greater volatility due to its dual role as both an industrial and precious metal, and could deliver stronger percentage gains if the uptrend continues.

Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, believes that gold maintains a strong bullish structure as long as it holds above ₹1,64,000, which now acts as a crucial support zone.

He noted that on the higher side, ₹1,72,000 remains the immediate resistance; a sustained break above this level could open the path for further upside momentum. Volatility is expected to stay elevated given geopolitical risks and macro data triggers.

“Gold prices surged sharply with MCX touching ₹1,68,700 as CME gold rallied close to $5,400, gaining nearly 2% amid renewed tensions involving the U.S., Israel and Iran. Escalating war-like developments across the Middle East have intensified safe-haven demand, keeping bullion firmly bid despite already elevated levels.

The week ahead remains data-heavy for the U.S., with Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment data lined up all of which could inject further volatility into prices as participants reassess Fed policy expectations," Trivedi said.

Back home, the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) will remain closed for trading in the first half on Tuesday, March 3, on account of Holi 2026, with trading resuming in the evening session from 5 pm to 11 pm today.

Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director at RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd., President of India Bullion and Jewellers Association Ltd. and Chairman at Jain International Trade Organisation, said that Gold and silver remain in a structurally strong uptrend, supported by geopolitical uncertainty, elevated global debt, and expectations of accommodative monetary policy. With tensions in the Middle East intensifying and energy prices rising, safe-haven demand for gold continues to build.

" As long as gold sustains above the $5,200 zone, the momentum favors a move toward $5,450–5,600 in the near term. Dips are likely to attract strategic buying rather than aggressive selling.

Silver, meanwhile, is benefiting from both monetary and industrial tailwinds. A persistent multi-year supply deficit, strong demand from solar, EVs, and AI infrastructure, and renewed investment flows are tightening the market. After breaking above $95, silver has opened the path toward $100–105 levels. Its higher beta nature suggests it could outperform gold in this phase of the rally.

While short-term volatility will remain high due to geopolitical headlines and US economic data, the broader bias for both metals stays constructive, with corrections likely to be shallow and temporary," Kothari said.

After tumbling 6% on Monday, silver prices staged a rebound, climbing 1.92% during Asian trading hours. Similar to gold, silver is regarded as a safe-haven asset during periods of geopolitical tension and heightened market uncertainty.

According to Bloomberg report, markets are now pricing in a possible interest rate cut by September, which is later than earlier expectations. Although elevated interest rates typically reduce gold’s appeal, the metal continues to draw demand as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic uncertainty.

Julia Khandoshko, CEO at the European broker Mind Money, said that Gold will also increase in price in relative terms. As the dollar began to decline due to the weakness of the American economy, gold only became more expensive against its background.

"When any crisis event strikes, gold always grows. It is because this yellow metal is a safe haven, capable of protecting assets in times of unpredictability. This time, in the US-Iran conflict, the logic is the same: scared investors are seeking shelter in gold, and that’s why it grows.

The metal has already climbed almost $5,400, but I think it will grow further and test even $6,000 in the near future. In any case, we have to observe. Who knows, maybe this escalation will finish shortly.

As for silver, it has quite a different nature. It often lags behind gold’s fast reaction, as it is the main industrial metal. It is mainly growing amid a positive economic outlook, as industries are developing and manufacturing increases.

Silver doesn’t grow as an investment in terms of instability, so its rise can be a positive signal in the current chaos. It means that at least automotive industries like electric vehicles or batteries will continue to grow as silver is in top demand for them," Khandoshko said.

Gold has surged almost 25% so far this year, driven by sustained geopolitical and trade tensions, along with worries over the Federal Reserve’s independence. The precious metal climbed to a record high of over $5,595 per ounce at the end of January.

Market experts believe that escalating geopolitical tensions could spark a strong surge in precious metals.

Sharing his view on gold, Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Investments, told Mint that in a worst-case scenario, global gold prices could climb to $6,000, or touch ₹2,00,000 in the domestic market. However, he cautioned that the actual price path will depend significantly on how the conflict evolves.

Analysts further noted that intensifying tensions could also push silver prices beyond the $100 level.

Donald Trump said the US would press on with its military campaign for as long as necessary, while Israel announced a “wave of strikes” aimed at Iran’s command centers. Iran, in response, has targeted oil and gas facilities and warned of potential disruptions to shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

The surge in energy prices that followed has intensified inflation concerns in the US, weighing on Treasuries and increasing the chances that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer. Traders are now factoring in a rate cut by September, later than earlier expectations. Although higher interest rates can pressure gold since it does not generate interest income, they may simultaneously strengthen bullion’s appeal as a store of value during periods of uncertainty.

Even before the weekend’s US-Israeli strikes on Iran, there were indications that inflationary pressures in the US were building.