Gold, Silver Rate Update: US gold prices slip below $5200; silver crashes 8% — What's the outlook ahead?

Brokerage firm ICICI Bank Research, in its latest report, expects gold prices to trade in the USD 5,200/oz to USD 5,500/oz range in the near term, with upside risks to these projections.

The prospect of supply-side disruptions to shipping could mean that base metal prices also trade with an upside bias.

“Risk aversion should support the safe-haven appeal for precious metals ensuring that gold prices drift higher moving towards the USD 5500/oz level,” said the brokerage.

Gift Nifty was trading around the 24,145 level, a discount of nearly 789 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close of 24,934, indicating a gap-down start for the Indian stock market indices on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, key markets in the Asia-Pacific region closed with deep losses in Tuesday's session, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropping 3.06% and the Kospi index being down even sharper by 7.24%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has lost 1.25% of its value in trade, and Shanghai has tumbled 1.43%.

On Monday, the Nifty 50 closed 1.24% lower at the 24,865 level, while the S&P Sensex lost 1.29% to settle at 80,238. The broader markets also finished with sharp losses, with both the Nifty Midcap 100 index and the Nifty Smallcap 100 index falling over 1.5%.

Gold prices have staged a sharp rebound from the day’s low. The April futures contract on MCX recovered ₹3,104 per 10 grams to trade at ₹1,61,750 as of 9:15 PM. Earlier in the day, the contract had fallen to ₹1,58,716.

The US key averages are trading with deep losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1,135 points, or 2.3%. If that holds, it would mark the blue-chip index’s first 1,000-point decline since April 10, 2025.

The S&P 500 fell by 2.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 2.3%. The weakness comes as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran continue to escalate, keeping crude oil prices elevated.

Investors are worried that rising energy prices may ripple through the economy, pushing up costs at a time when investors are hoping inflation will ease enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again later this year.

The March silver futures contract on MCX has recouped some of its early losses, as the contract was trading ₹15,000 lower at ₹263,450 as of 9:30 PM. From the day’s low of ₹257,800, the white metal has recovered ₹5,650.

After nine consecutive months of advance, silver closed February 3.18% lower, and with today’s drop, it has already lost nearly ₹19,000 per kilogram in the first two trading sessions of March.

While bullion is regarded as a hedge against inflation over the long term, higher inflation can also translate into higher real yields and a firmer dollar, keeping borrowing costs elevated for longer and dampening appetite for ​the non-yielding metal.

Traders expect ​the U.S. Federal Reserve ⁠to hold rates at the end of its next two-day meeting on March 18, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, Reuters reported.

The ​U. dollar rose 0.9% to a more than one-month high, while US Treasury yields shot higher.

A stronger US currency typically makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies, and higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding the ​non-yielding metal.

Gold, often deemed a safe-haven asset by investors during times of crisis, fell $230 per troy ounce (Comex) to $5,081 per ounce on March 3. The March silver futures contract on Comex crashed $10.79 per troy ounce to reach the day’s low of $78.06.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, jumped to 99.38, marking its highest level since January 20, supported by safe-haven flows.

The April gold futures on MCX fell ₹6,425 to the day's low of ₹1,59,649 per 10 grams, erasing all the gains the yellow metal had made in the previous two sessions. However, gold has remained higher over the last 10 months.

The March silver futures contract declined even more sharply, falling ₹18,471 per kilogram to the day's low of ₹2,60,010. In the previous trading session, prices came within striking distance of the ₹3 lakh mark.

The dollar rallied by the most in nearly five weeks after the US attack on Iran set off a rush into havens and pushed up Treasury yields as a surge in oil prices threatens to worsen inflation.

Bloomberg’s dollar index rose as much as 1% before paring the advance to end day up 0.7%, the best rally since Jan. 30. The US currency gained against all of its major peers, with the Swiss franc and the euro both down 1% or more amid concern about the impacts of higher energy costs. Japan, another major oil importer, saw the yen slide 0.9%.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Definitely gold share or a weightage in a portfolio could be a bit higher than silver, given the tensions that we have, opined Manav Modi, Commodities Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

In times of sharp geopolitical stress, gold generally leads in absolute safe-haven demand, but silver can outperform in percentage terms due to higher volatility and industrial demand dynamics. Gold is the traditional safe haven, investors flock to it first when risk spikes. Silver, while also a safe haven, has higher beta: it tends to gain more on the upside but also fall harder if risk sentiment improves. However, silver’s recent moves show sharper percentage gains compared with gold on renewed safe-haven buying.

— Nirpendra Yadav, Sr. Commodity Research Analyst at Bonanza

Gold and silver remains in a primary uptrend on the weekly timeframe, and prices rebounded after three weeks of profit booking. The prices gained with strong buying momentum last where MACD is positive and showing strong buying momentum while RSI is sustaining above 80, an oversold price condition not a sign of reversal. The broader structure remains bullish as price is still trading well above the 20, 50, 100 and 200-week EMAs, all of which are positively aligned.

The chart structure and indicators of silver futures showing a bullish momentum on the weekly chart, indicating further upside towards 325,000-360,000/ per KG in the upcoming week. Silver has support at 276,000.

Gold is likely to maintain the uptrend and may move towards 180,000 to 190,000/10gm in the upcoming weeks. Gold has support at 160000.

— Nirpendra Yadav, Sr. Commodity Research Analyst at Bonanza

The dollar is absolutely roaring away, as are U.S. Treasuries, and that's providing a strong headwind to gold and particularly silver, independent analyst Ross Norman was quoted as saying by Reuters.

Expect volatility to remain elevated. In case of further escalation, gold could test ₹1,70,000 per 10 grams and silver may approach ₹3,00,000 per kg in the near term. However, any diplomatic breakthrough could prompt sharp profit-booking, given the rapid 3–6% rally recorded within a short span.

— Gaurav Garg, Research Analyst at Lemonn Markets Desk

MCX gold futures for April expiry opened with a 3% cut at ₹161,092 per 10 grams as against its last close of ₹166,074. MCX was closed for trading in the morning session on account of a public holiday to mark the festival of Holi.

At the same time, silver prices on MCX traded with a steeper decline of 6% as it traded at ₹261,773 per kilogram.

A diplomatic breakthrough in US–Iran tensions could trigger a short-term correction in gold and silver, but it is unlikely to alter the structural trajectory of the metals. It is important to understand that gold and silver are not rallying solely because of the war — the conflict is merely a catalyst accelerating an already strong macro setup. The underlying drivers remain intact: central bank buying, de-dollarisation trends, fiscal expansion in major economies, and persistent geopolitical fragmentation.

— Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS

US spot gold and silver prices came under intense selling pressure as the strength in the US dollar weighed on the precious metals. The US spot gold price declined almost 3% to below $5200 while silver rate plunged nearly 11% to below $80

Spot gold prices fell on Tuesday as a stronger dollar offset safe-haven demand driven by an escalating U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran that has heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Spot gold was down 1.4% at $5,252.05 an ounce by 0931 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery lost 0.9% to $5,263.80.

In other precious metals, silver fell 6.5% to $83.63 an ounce after climbing to a more than four-week high on Monday. Platinum lost 7.5% to $2,131.30 and palladium was down 4.1% at $1,694.75.

(Source: Reuters)