Silver rate today holds ground as oil prices slip, Fed minutes signal higher rates; dollar, yields provide support

Silver prices in India were muted but in the red on Thursday, 21 May, as optimism regarding easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East offset lingering concerns over inflation and the possibility of higher-for-longer global interest rates.

On MCX, Silver rates slipped 0.8% to ₹2,72,135 per kg, while MCX gold price was flat at ₹1,59,706 per 10 grams.

Moreover, softer U.S. Treasury yields, lower oil prices and a weaker dollar helped limit downside pressure on precious metals. Market participants also assessed the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which indicated policymakers remained cautious on inflation and saw little urgency to cut interest rates amid a resilient U.S. labour market.

In the international markets, Spot silver held steady at $75.96 per ounce in early trade, while spot gold remained largely unchanged at $4,543.96 per ounce by 0104 GMT after posting gains of more than 1% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures for June delivery edged 0.2% higher to $4,545.50 per ounce.

Investor sentiment remained focused on developments surrounding negotiations between Washington and Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump said discussions with Iran were approaching the final stages, although he warned that further attacks could follow if Tehran failed to agree to a deal. He added that the United States was prepared to wait “a few days” to receive the “right answers.”

Iran, however, maintained a firm stance, warning against renewed aggression. The country’s Revolutionary Guards stated that any repeat attack on Iran could trigger a broader regional conflict extending beyond the Middle East.

Fed outlook and softer yields support precious metals

Despite geopolitical uncertainties easing slightly, precious metals found support from declining U.S. Treasury yields and weakness in the dollar. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note eased to 4.57% from 4.67% in the previous session, improving the appeal of non-yielding assets such as silver and gold. At the same time, the U.S. dollar retreated from a six-week high as optimism over a possible U.S.-Iran agreement reduced demand for the greenback as a safe-haven asset.

Oil prices also declined amid expectations that tensions in the Middle East could cool if negotiations succeed, helping ease concerns about energy-driven inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April policy meeting showed that a majority of policymakers believed further monetary tightening could become necessary if inflation remains persistently above the central bank’s 2% target. Fed officials also highlighted that the U.S. labour market remained resilient, supported by stable unemployment levels and stronger-than-expected job growth over the past two months, reducing the immediate need for interest rate cuts.

Key levels to watch

According to Renisha Chainani, Head - Research at Augmont, Silver's loss of the $75 support level points to continued downside, with $71 and $67 as the next key targets.

For the yellow metal, she predicted, "Gold's break below $4500 has cleared the way toward the March low near $4350, with resistance at $4600–$4800. The higher-highs/higher-lows structure holds above $4300, indicating pullbacks remain consistent with re-accumulation rather than distribution."

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.