Gold, silver rates to USD vs INR: Commodity heatmap amid soaring crude oil prices

Commodity market today: Amid persistent geopolitical risk premiums in crude oil prices, the COMEX gold rate today saw some buying interest. The COMEX silver rate today also saw some upside, and it remains intact. In the domestic market, the gold rate today on the MCX came close to ₹1,55,000 per 10 gm, whereas the silver rate today on the MCX touched an intraday high of ₹2,38,271 per kg. The WTI crude oil price is around $84/barrel, while the Indian National Rupee (INR) has remained relatively stable at around 95.4 against the US dollar (USD).

US-Iran news in focus

Speaking on the triggers that may dictate the commodity market today, Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, said, “The US-Iran tension escalated after reports that the US targeted a vessel in the Gulf of Oman over an alleged breach of the Iran blockade. Washington also warned that continued attacks on maritime traffic could keep fuel prices elevated, further clouding the outlook for a diplomatic resolution and reinforcing concerns over energy security.”

Investors await US inflation data

Advising investors to remain vigilant about the US inflation data, SEBI-registered market analyst Anuj Gupta said, “Investors are advised to remain vigilant about the US inflation print coming today. Any rise in the inflation print would hit the US Fed's inflation hopes, which is expected to push gold and silver prices higher. Other commodities that are imported may also see some upside on the future price rise buzz.”

Unveiling the trade strategy for the commodity market investors, Ponmudi R of Enrich Money said, “Gold and silver rates are showing a strong recovery, but both the precious metals are now approaching technically significant resistance levels, making the next breakout crucial for continuation.”

The Enrich Money expert said the crude oil has also recovered above its long-term moving average but is testing a major falling trendline. Among base metals, zinc remains structurally strong, while copper is approaching a potentially important breakout around 1,400. USD/INR continues to maintain its broader upward structure, keeping currency-related pressure relevant for domestic commodity prices.

Commodity market heatmap

Here's the commodity market heatmap, which you can't afford to miss out:

Gold rate today

The COMEX gold rate today has staged a strong recovery from the recent lows and is now trading near $4,462/oz, approaching a crucial technical zone. Likewise, the MCX gold rate today is around ₹1,54,500 per 10 gm.

The COMEX gold rate has an immediate hurdle placed around $4,500–$4,520, where the 200-day SMA near $4,502 and the broader falling trendline converge. A sustained breakout above this zone could strengthen bullish momentum and open the way toward $4,600, followed by $4,750–$4,800. On the downside, $4,350–$ 4,400 should act as immediate support, while a break below $4,350 could trigger renewed weakness toward $4,250–$4,200. Overall, the recovery is encouraging, but $4,500 remains the key confirmation level for the next directional move.

The MCX gold rate is comfortably above its 200-day SMA near 1,46,374. After recovering sharply from the recent corrective phase, prices are moving toward an important resistance zone around 1,58,000– ₹1,60,000. A sustained move above ₹1,60,000 could strengthen momentum toward ₹1,63,000– ₹1,66,000. On the downside, immediate support is placed around ₹1,50,000– ₹1,52,000, while the ₹1,46,000– ₹1,47,000 region remains an important medium-term support zone. The broader structure remains constructive as long as prices continue to hold above ₹1,50,000.

Silver rate today

The COMEX Silver rate is recovering meaningfully from recent lows and is currently trading around $65.50 per ounce. Likewise, the MCX silver rate is around ₹2,37,500 per kg.

The COMEX silver rate has reclaimed the $61.5–$62 region, but remains below the 200-day SMA near $70.7, making $70–$71 the next major technical hurdle. A sustained breakout above $71 could strengthen the recovery toward $74–$77, while a broader trendline resistance remains higher. On the downside, $61.5–$ 63 should act as immediate support. A break below $61.5 could weaken the recovery and expose $58–$57 again. The near-term bias has improved, but a move above the 200-day average is required to confirm a stronger bullish reversal.

The MCX silver rate is trading near ₹2,37,500, just above its 200-day SMA at ₹2,37,458 and close to the falling trendline resistance. This makes the ₹2,38,000– ₹2,42,000 zone extremely important. A decisive breakout and sustained close above ₹2,42,000 could confirm a trend reversal and extend the rally toward ₹2,50,000– ₹2,60,000. Immediate support for MCX silver rate today is placed around ₹2,30,000– ₹2,25,000, while ₹2,18,000– ₹2,20,000 remains the stronger downside support zone. Silver rate is currently at a technical inflexion point, and the next few sessions could determine whether the recovery develops into a broader breakout.

Crude oil price

The MCX Crude oil price has recovered strongly from the July lows and is trading around ₹8,000 per barrel, whereas the WTI crude oil price is around $84.50 per barrel.

“Crude oil prices extended their recent gains as the geopolitical risk premium remained firmly embedded in energy markets,” said Ponmudi.

MCX Crude Oil has recovered strongly from the July lows and is trading around ₹8,020, comfortably above its 200-day SMA near 7,170. However, prices are now approaching the broader falling trendline, making ₹8,150– ₹8,300 an important resistance zone. A sustained breakout above ₹8,300 could extend the recovery toward ₹8,500– ₹8,900. On the downside, immediate support is placed around ₹7,750– ₹7,600, while the 200-day average of around ₹7,170 remains the major medium-term support. The near-term bias has turned cautiously bullish, but confirmation requires a breakout above the descending resistance structure.

WTI crude oil price is comfortably above its 200-day SMA near $76.8. Prices are now testing a major descending trendline around $84–$86, making this the key breakout zone. A sustained move above $86 could strengthen bullish momentum toward $90–$94. On the downside, $80–$81 acts as immediate support, followed by $76.8–$77. The recovery structure remains constructive, but crude needs to decisively clear the falling trendline before a larger upside move can be confirmed.

USD vs INR

USD/INR continues to remain structurally firm, trading around 95.40 and well above its 200-day SMA near 92.73. The pair continues to respect its rising trend structure, indicating persistent pressure on the rupee despite the recent consolidation from the 96.5–96.7 region.

Immediate resistance is placed around 95.80–96.00, followed by 96.50–96.70. A sustained breakout above 96.70 could open the possibility of a move toward the 97 mark. On the downside, 95.00–94.80 is the immediate support zone; a decisive break below it could extend the correction toward 94.30–94.00. Until the rising trend structure breaks, the broader bias remains bullish for USD/INR.

MCX Copper

MCX Copper continues to display a constructive technical structure and is trading around ₹1,381, near a major resistance band at ₹1,390– ₹1,400. Prices have been forming higher lows while repeatedly testing the upper resistance zone, creating the possibility of a breakout. A sustained move above ₹1,400 could trigger fresh momentum toward ₹1,430– ₹1,460. Immediate support is placed around ₹1,340– ₹1,350, followed by ₹1,290– ₹1,300. The broader bias remains positive, but ₹1,400 is the crucial confirmation level for the next leg of the rally.

MCX Lead

MCX Lead is consolidating around ₹197.80 after correcting from the 208 region. The broader structure continues to show higher lows, with immediate support at ₹195– ₹196. As long as this zone holds, prices could attempt another recovery toward ₹200– ₹202, followed by ₹204– ₹208. A sustained move above ₹200 would considerably improve near-term momentum. However, a break below ₹195 could weaken the structure, exposing ₹192– ₹190. The outlook remains neutral to positive, with the rising support structure intact.

MCX Zinc

MCX Zinc remains one of the stronger base-metal charts, trading around ₹395 after maintaining a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Prices are now approaching the psychological ₹400 mark and the upper end of the rising channel. A sustained breakout above ₹400– ₹402 could extend the rally toward ₹410– ₹420. Immediate support is placed around ₹385– ₹388, followed by ₹370– ₹375. While the broader trend remains bullish, proximity to channel resistance could trigger short-term consolidation or profit-booking before the next directional move.

MCX Aluminium

MCX Aluminium has continued its recovery from the July lows and is currently trading around ₹358, maintaining a higher-low structure. Immediate resistance is placed around ₹360– ₹365. A sustained breakout above ₹365 could extend the recovery toward ₹372– ₹380, while a stronger move could eventually bring ₹390 back into focus. On the downside, ₹350– ₹345 should act as immediate support, followed by the stronger ₹335– ₹330 zone. The near-term structure remains cautiously bullish as long as prices continue to hold above the rising support trendline.

MCX Natural Gas

MCX Natural Gas remains in a broader consolidation structure and is currently trading around ₹265. Prices are holding above an important support region around ₹255– ₹249, but continue to trade below the long-term descending trendline. Immediate resistance is placed around ₹275– ₹285, and a sustained breakout above ₹285 could improve momentum toward ₹300– ₹315. On the downside, a break below ₹249 could expose ₹243, followed by the ₹230– ₹225 region. Until the descending trendline is decisively broken, the outlook remains range-bound with a cautious bias.

(All commodity prices outlooks have been given by Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money)

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.