Gold, Silver Rates Today Highlights: MCX gold rate above ₹1.62 lakh on import duty hike

Gold ETFs are an important beneficiary, but the 'real winner' framing oversimplifies the picture. ETFs carry structural advantages that the duty hike now sharpens — no making charges, no purity concerns, no storage cost, and clean tax treatment under the current rules. For the urban, investment-led buyer — the SIP-and-allocation cohort — the cost differential against physical gold becomes even more compelling. We expect a measurable acceleration in ETF flows over the next two-to-three quarters, alongside renewed interest in any future Sovereign Gold Bond tranches the Government chooses to issue. That said, physical gold's role in Indian households is primarily cultural and savings-led, not investment-led. The two markets are coexisting, not competing. The duty hike accelerates the investment-buyer shift toward ETFs and digital gold; the jewellery-buyer dynamics, anchored to weddings and tradition, remain largely unchanged. Both can win — they're winning different audiences.

— Harshal Dasani, INVasset PMS

The increase in gold import duty from 6% to 15%—a reversal of the July 2024 easing—comes amid rising macro pressures, with the rupee weakening toward ~ ₹95.6/$ and crude prices elevated near $107. The move is clearly aimed at curbing non-essential imports and managing the current account deficit (CAD). India’s gold import bill has surged to ~USD 72 billion in FY26 (vs ~$58 billion last year), accounting for over 9% of total imports and significantly contributing to the trade deficit. While past duty hikes in 2022 from 10.75% to 15% have led to a 15–20% moderation in official imports, the current impact is likely to be more nuanced.

Incremental physical demand may soften, particularly in price-sensitive segments, and imports could see marginal compression. However, for unavoidable purchases such as weddings, consumers are likely to downtrade to lower purity jewellery (22K to 18K) or reduce ticket sizes rather than defer buying altogether. Structurally, demand remains supported by central banks buying, strong gold returns, geopolitical uncertainty, and relatively weak equity market performance, keeping safe-haven demand intact.

— Sachin Jasuja, Head of Equities and Founding Partner, Centricity WealthTech

Gold prices witnessed a sharp gap-up opening after the import duty hike, with MCX Gold surging nearly ₹9000 or 5.87% to ₹162450, while COMEX gold remained relatively flat below $4700. The sharp rally in domestic prices reflects the immediate impact of higher import costs on bullion.

Markets will now focus on US President Trump’s China visit, which may bring key updates on trade tariffs and possible developments around the Iran conflict. Technically, COMEX gold continues to hold strong support near $4650, keeping sentiment supported at lower levels.

— Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities

Ruchit Thakur, Market Analyst, VT Markets, on Import Duty Surge Pushes MCX Bullion Prices Higher, said, "The crucial point for traders is that domestic bullion may soon separate from COMEX or worldwide pricing, and even if international gold prices remain unchanged, MCX gold and silver may continue to rise because of the duty premium unique to India and the weakening rupee. From a trader's perspective, what should we expect next? The rupee's movement, the government's stance on further restrictions, the slowdown in physical demand, the global gold trend, the US Fed's stance, and premiums in Indian spot markets could all be major future triggers.

The duty increase could boost a spike in Indian bullion prices even more if geopolitical tensions and commodity prices stay high as the rupee declines."

Ruchit Thakur, Market Analyst, VT Markets on Import Duty Surge Pushes MCX Bullion Prices Higher, said - "The crucial point for traders is that domestic bullion may soon separate from COMEX or worldwide pricing, and even if international gold prices remain unchanged, MCX gold and silver may continue to rise because of the duty premium unique to India and the weakening rupee. From a trader's perspective, what should we expect next? The movement of the rupee, the government's position on more restrictions, the slowdown in physical demand, the global gold trend, the US Fed's standpoint, and premiums in Indian spot markets might all be major future triggers.

The duty increase could boost a spike in Indian bullion prices even more if geopolitical tensions and commodity prices stay high as the rupee declines."

Raghav Dhir, Director, Dhirsons Jewellers Pvt Ltd, Dhiraj Dhir Group, said, - "The revision in import duty is a significant policy shift, and while it will inevitably push up costs across the supply chain, it also presents a timely opportunity for consumers to rethink how they engage with gold. We strongly encourage our customers to bring in their old gold and exchange it for new jewellery.

This is one of the smartest ways to stay ahead of rising prices while refreshing your collection. At the same time, we believe this is the right moment for the industry and the government to come together and formalise a robust gold monetisation scheme. India is estimated to hold 25,000 tonnes of gold sitting idle in homes. Unlocking even a fraction of that through a credible, consumer-friendly programme would reduce our dependence on imports, ease forex pressure, and fuel domestic trade in a meaningful way. The policy intent is clear; what we need now is a structured mechanism that gives consumers the confidence to participate."

Harshal Dasani, Business Head, INVasset PMS, said - "Central banks, after a quieter stretch, are positioned to resume buying. Reserves diversification away from dollar-denominated assets — particularly among emerging-market and BRICS-aligned banks — tends to come in waves, and the next is overdue. Official-sector purchases through 2022-23 ran at multi-decade highs; the underlying drivers of geopolitical fragmentation, de-dollarisation, and real-yield concerns have not gone away. A measured re-entry over the next two-to-three quarters should provide a durable underbid.

Silver's case is even sharper, because it has become a dual-use metal in the truest sense. Beyond its monetary and jewellery roles, silver is now a critical input across semiconductors, photovoltaics, EV electronics, and the AI hardware build-out. Every additional gigawatt of solar capacity, every advanced packaging node, every AI data-centre expansion adds industrial demand against a supply base that has not meaningfully scaled. The structural deficit is not a forecast — it is already arithmetic.

The Prime Minister's recent appeal urging Indian households to moderate gold purchases is, paradoxically, likely to deepen the very demand it sought to temper. Indian gold demand has historically run inverse to official discouragement; duty hikes and moral-suasion campaigns have without exception been followed by stronger offtake through both formal and unorganised channels. The cultural anchor is too deep, and the average household reads such commentary as a contrarian signal of underlying strength.

For investors, this is a moment to lean in rather than trim. The duty-driven premium is noise; the real signal is the layering of resumed central-bank demand onto gold, accelerating industrial demand onto silver, and Indian retail demand that history says only strengthens after official discouragement. Constructive and conviction-led."

Khushi Mistry, Research Analyst at Bonanza, said - " The rupee's weakness is being driven much more by crude oil (~22% of imports), FII/FPI capital outflows, US interest rate differentials, and broader dollar strength. Gold imports are genuinely a significant part of India's external imbalance.

Gold and silver accounted for nearly 11% of India's total imports, so squeezing 11% off the import bill helps at the margin but doesn't address the heavyweight factors. The duty hike will help curb rupee depreciation somewhat, likely reducing official gold imports meaningfully in the short run and trimming the current account deficit. But on its own, it won't reverse the rupee's slide. Expect the government to pair it with other measures (RBI intervention, capital-flow steps) over the coming weeks if the rupee remains under pressure."

Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research, Geojit Investments, said, "The recent hike in India’s gold import duty is likely to raise local prices and temporarily dampen physical demand. However, investors should not view this as a reason to panic. Gold continues to hold its appeal as a safe-haven asset, particularly in times of global uncertainty and domestic currency pressures. For investors, the preferred route remains digital gold or gold ETFs. These options avoid the risks associated with physical holdings, such as smuggling-driven price distortions, storage costs, and liquidity issues.

Higher duties may also create incentives for illegal imports, as was observed earlier when the duty stood at 15% before being reduced to curb smuggling. In the short run, though, this measure can help reduce the import bill and ease pressure on the widening Current Account Deficit (CAD). Since gold accounts for nearly 9–10% of India’s total import bill, the hike could provide some protection to foreign exchange reserves"

Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities, said, "Our structural view on gold and silver remains constructive. The global de-dollarisation theme, central bank buying, and currency-debasement hedging are all multi-year drivers that operate independently of any domestic tax decision. We expect international gold to move towards $6,000 an ounce over the next 12 to 18 months, with silver positioned as a meaningful beneficiary alongside.

On the rupee, USD/INR around 95.60 reflects the cumulative strain of elevated crude prices and the West Asia geopolitical premium. Active RBI intervention and the duty-led compression of gold imports should help moderate further weakness. The rupee's path from here will be shaped less by gold and more by crude's trajectory and the West Asia situation."

Jefferies said the government’s decision to raise import duties on gold and silver to 15% from 6%—including a 10% basic customs duty and a 5% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC)—is aimed at conserving foreign exchange amid elevated crude prices and a weakening rupee.

The brokerage noted that the move follows Narendra Modi’s recent call for households to adopt austerity measures, including avoiding gold purchases for a year.

Jefferies highlighted that higher duties will push up domestic gold prices and likely weigh on demand, while also raising concerns around a potential increase in gold smuggling. In the near term, companies could see some mark-to-market gains on inventory, but the broader outlook suggests heightened share price volatility.

While larger players such as Titan Company are relatively better positioned than before, the brokerage cautioned that uncertainty over further policy actions could keep investor sentiment cautious.

According to Sumit Singhania, Research Head, Bajaj Broking, the recent hike in gold import duties is likely to have a mixed impact across sectors.

On the negative side, jewellery companies such as Titan Company, Kalyan Jewellers India Ltd, and Sky Gold & Diamonds may come under pressure as higher tariffs push up domestic gold prices, potentially dampening consumer demand—especially for discretionary purchases like coins, medallions, and jewellery.

On the positive side, gold financing firms, including Muthoot Finance and Manappuram Finance, are expected to benefit from higher collateral values of gold-backed loans. He also noted that precious metal futures on the Multi-Commodity Exchange of India surged around 6% following the announcement.

Ajay Kedia, Director, Kedia Advisory, said that in the near term, silver is expected to trade with a positive-to-sideways bias, with the current price around ₹2,97,600. He sees ₹3,04,000 as key resistance and ₹2,92,000 as immediate support.

For gold, the outlook also remains positive to sideways, with the metal trading near ₹1,62,700. Resistance is at ₹1,64,500, while ₹1,58,485 is a crucial support level.

Dr. Hanuma Prasad Modali, Managing Director, Deccan Gold Mines Limited, said, "A significant part of the recent increase in India’s gold imports has been driven by elevated global prices rather than a proportionate rise in physical consumption volumes. As a result, while higher import duties may temporarily influence purchasing behaviour or timing, they may not meaningfully alter the long-term structural demand for gold in India.

Historically, gold demand in India has remained relatively resilient across duty and price cycles because gold serves multiple roles - as jewellery, savings, investment, and a hedge against uncertainty. There is also a risk that sharp duty increases could shift part of the trade into unofficial channels rather than materially suppress overall demand.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the larger and more sustainable solution lies not only in managing imports, but in strengthening India’s domestic gold production capability. India remains one of the world’s largest gold consumers, yet domestic production is still extremely limited despite significant untapped geological potential."

Kiyosaki highlights silver as a strong investment and predicts a significant economic downturn in 2026. He encourages proactive investment in hard assets to navigate economic instability and inflation.

In a recent post on social media, the “Rich Dad Poor Dad” author reflected on how he began accumulating silver decades ago and urged investors to think ahead instead of reacting to events after they happen.

“RICH DAD LESSON: The best investors can see the future,” Kiyosaki wrote, adding that he started stacking silver in 1965 when the metal “cost pennies.”

The investor said silver remains among his strongest-performing investments even in 2026, using his own long-term approach to highlight the importance of spotting trends early and positioning investments ahead of broader economic shifts.

Jewellery stocks witnessed selling pressure for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, with Sky Gold plummeting by more than 11%, driven by concerns about a decrease in demand following the increase in import duties.

On Wednesday, the government raised import duties on gold and silver to 15% from 6% as part of efforts to limit the influx of precious metals amid a growing import bill resulting from the crisis in West Asia.

Shares of Sky Gold And Diamonds fell by 11.11%, Kalyan Jewellers decreased by 6%, Senco Gold dropped by 4.30%, PC Jeweller went down by 3.65%, Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri slipped by 1.74%, and Titan Company declined by 1.64% on the BSE.

According to Kaveri More, Commodity Analyst, Commodity Technical Research at Choice Broking, MCX Gold now holds a moderately bullish bias with support at 160,000–157,000 and resistance seen around 165,000–180,000, while MCX Silver may remain volatile with support at 292,800–285,260 and resistance at 300,000–305,600.

Gold is the more stable long bias, while silver is the higher-beta trade. After the initial jump, intraday retracements and profit-taking are likely, so the market may shift from breakout to range-building once the duty impact is fully reflected. With higher domestic prices may dampen jewellery and retail demand if the rally turns excessively sharp, while a quicker normalization in import flows and faster adjustments by banks and importers could help cool the initial price spike.

India has raised import tariffs on gold and silver to 15% from 6% in an effort to reduce overseas purchases of precious metals and ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves. The revised structure includes a 10% basic customs duty along with a 5% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess, significantly increasing the effective import tax burden

Over the years, gold’s share in India’s forex reserves has climbed sharply from around 2.8% in 2007 to nearly 16.2% by January 2026. At the same time, oil prices remain above $100 due to the Iran conflict, increasing concerns around India’s balance of payments and dollar outflows.

This explains why Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently urged citizens to avoid buying gold for a year to help conserve foreign exchange reserves.

The concern is simple. India imports most of its gold and oil. When imports rise, the country needs more dollars, and when dollar demand rises faster than supply, pressure on the rupee increases.

MCX gold rate for June futures contracts opened 1% higher at ₹1,54,851 per 10 grams as against its previous close of ₹1,53,442 level. MCX silver rate for July futures contracts opened 4% higher at ₹2,90,224 per kg as compared with its previous close of ₹2,79,062 level.

Buying in precious metals intensified and gold and silver prices hit 6% upper circuit each. MCX gold rate was up by ₹9,206, or 6%, at ₹1,62,648 per 10 grams level, while MCX silver price spiked by ₹16,743, or 6%, to ₹2,95,805 per kg.