How China’s silver export controls could turn into strategic concerns for India

The new regulations, also covering tungsten and antimony, have triggered concern across industries where silver has become indispensable, from artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and electronics to solar power equipment, medical devices and defence systems.

China’s dominance in the silver market does not stem from mining strength but from its overwhelming control over refining. According to the list of refiners whose bars have been accredited by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) for global over-the-counter trading, China operates 27 refineries, followed by Japan with 13 refineries. That puts it far ahead of Germany with five refiners, and Canada, India, and Switzerland, which have just four facilities each.

This concentration of refining capacity effectively positions China as the gatekeeper of global refined silver supply, even though it is not the world’s largest miner of the metal.

The model is straightforward: China imports silver ore and base metal concentrates, refines them domestically, and exports the finished product. As the World Silver Survey 2025 by US-based The Silver Institute notes, “China has traditionally been a net exporter of silver due to the metal's structural oversupply in the local market...fuel(l)ed by large volumes of refined silver recovered from imported base metal concentrates."

Official data from China’s General Administration of Customs underscore this imbalance. Over the past two years, silver exports have consistently outpaced imports, with monthly export values rising to about $887 million in October 2025, compared with imports of roughly $50 million in the same month.

For India, the tighter export-licensing has significant implications as the country has become increasingly dependent on imported silver. Trade data for April-November 2025 shows India imported over $7,000 million worth of silver, while it exported just about $28 million. During the same period, Hong Kong alone supplied 37% of India's silver, while mainland China accounted for just 3%.

The distinction between Hong Kong and mainland China matters because Hong Kong functions primarily as a re-export hub rather than a producer. The Silver Institute's World Silver Survey 2025 report noted that mainland China remained Hong Kong's largest bullion supplier in 2024, with shipments from there up by 32%, offsetting the slump in shipments from Taiwan, Russia and Japan.

While Hong Kong operates with independent trade policies, the new export-licensing requirements apply to silver leaving mainland China, and since Hong Kong depends on mainland China for refined silver for its distribution operations, any export restriction constrains Hong Kong's ability to supply India and other markets.

The implications of this latest move could have some impact on India's import dependence due to the metal's expanding and evolving role in solar energy and electronic manufacturing.

As silver transitions from conventional metal to critical mineral essential for emerging technologies, China's export licensing system represents another lever of geopolitical influence.