Silver delivers the wildest intraday swing for Indian ETF investors in 2025

Indian retail investors witnessed the sharpest intraday swing of 2025 in silver-exchange traded funds (ETFs) on Monday, as prices reacted to China's export restrictions and the increase in margins on the white metal by the world's most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group, over the weekend.

Shortly after opening at 9:15am, Nippon Silver ETF, the largest by assets under management (AUM) of ₹26,361.5 crore (as of 24 December), surged by 11% to a record high of ₹243.29 a gram from Friday's closing of ₹219.85.

From there, it plunged around 12:30pm by 19% to a low of ₹196.30 before closing 0.72% lower at ₹218.25, showed data from National Stock Exchange of India Ltd (NSE).

Similarly, Kotak Silver ETF gyrated by 24%, between a high of ₹244.7 and ₹185.57 per gram before closing 1.75% higher at ₹223.51. Tata Silver ETF swung 29%, moving between a high of ₹25.10 and a low of ₹17.77 per one-tenth gram, before closing flat at ₹22.44.

“Domestic silver ETF prices initially played catch-up with international prices on 26 December, where markets trade until midnight India time (against 3:30pm closing for the ETFs), before reacting to the CME margin impact on prices at noon,” said Satish Dondapati, fund manager at Kotak Mutual Fund.

While the active silver futures contract on CME Group's Comex rose 11% to $79.70 an ounce before closing at $77.19 on 26 December after the NSE closed at 3:30pm, it traded down 3.74% at $74.31 at the time of going to press on 29 December. This, after CME on Friday evening, raised the margin to trade to $25,000 per contract, effective Monday, from $20,000 at the beginning of December.

"This reduces the leverage to trade, resulting in volatility rising," said Naveen Mathur, director (currencies and commodities ) at financial services conglomerate Anand Rathi Group. “Volatility may increase in the coming sessions.”

“This is the highest intraday volatility in ETF prices seen in 2025,” added Dondapati, who also expects the short-term volatility to persist as traders holding leverage positions.

Silver has risen 154% on CME to $75.82 an ounce (31.10gm), thanks to a supply shortage and expectations of further shortages highlighted by Elon Musk on 27 December. He replied to a tweet on Chinese export restrictions, effective 1 January, by saying on X: “This is not good. Silver is needed in many industrial processes.”

China, the world's second-largest producer of Silver, is slated to restrict silver exports from 1 January through a state licensing mechanism.

Against an annual global demand of 1.2 billion ounces each year, supply has fallen short by 200 million ounces, or 1 billion ounces, over the past five years. And China's export control will result in a global supply reduction of 13% to 870 million ounces, according to Dondapati. This could result in increased volatility in 2026.

India's largest silver ETF, Nippon Silver ETF, rose 159.99% year-to-date, to ₹218.25 per gram on Monday, tracking the international price movement.

Of the total intraday traded value on 29 December, the delivery of Nippon Silver ETF units stood at 29.07% or ₹1,857 crore at market closing at 3:30pm.

Silver is widely used in electric vehicles, solar panels, and semiconductors. The shortage has driven up prices to outsized levels, prompting analysts like Mathur to advise caution to new investors in the metal.