Reliance, BPCL to JK Tyre: Here are most affected Indian stocks as crude oil prices surpass $115 by rising 30% on Monday

Crude oil prices surged close to $120 per barrel before slightly retreating on Monday as the conflict in Iran escalated, endangering production and shipping in the Middle East and impacting financial markets significantly.

US WTI Crude oil made a gap up, starting at $98 and is now trading above $115, reflecting an increase of nearly 30%, noted experts. This surge in crude oil prices marks the largest increase since 2020, primarily driven by disruptions in the Middle East.

Over the past weekend, Iran has reduced its crude oil supply by obstructing the Strait of Hormuz, heightening tensions in the region's output. Furthermore, the US Dollar has experienced a significant rise, currently hovering around the 99 level, which has exerted pressure on Crude oil prices, as noted by experts.

Recently, countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar have reported a decrease in their overall production. Today, the MCX Crude oil March contract has already reached its upper circuit limit of 18% at 9868.

“Key support to be considered at 9000 – 8127 respectively. On the other hand, immediate resistance would be at 10,500 and breakout of this level will accelerate upside momentum in Crude oil price towards 11,300 in upcoming sessions,” said Aamir Makda, Commodity & Currency Analyst, Choice Broking.

Crude oil price rise - Most affected stocks and sectors to watch

Crude oil prices have a significant impact on both the Indian economy and the stock market. Given that India relies heavily on imports to meet its crude oil needs, a sudden increase in oil prices can promptly influence various sectors.

With the soaring crude oil prices, on Monday, March 9, the Sensex plummeted by 2,494.35 points, a decline of 3.16%, settling at 76,424.55. Meanwhile, Nifty 50 fell by 752.65 points, or 3.07%, reaching 23,697.80.

According to Darshan Rathod, COO of Multify, when crude oil prices rise, the costs of transportation and logistics escalate. This has a direct effect on industries like aviation, logistics, and shipping. Airlines tend to be one of the most impacted, as fuel constitutes a significant portion of their operating expenses. An increase in oil prices can diminish their profit margins.

Furthermore, sectors such as paints, chemicals, and plastics can also experience strain. Since many of their raw materials are sourced from crude oil, escalating prices lead to higher input costs, which may pressure their profit margins.

Consumer-facing companies might also encounter difficulties. Increased costs for transportation and packaging can strain profitability if these companies cannot transfer the higher expenses to consumers.

Shares of InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (IndiGo) decreased by 3.7% due to elevated fuel prices, which make up nearly 50% of its operating expenses, putting pressure on profit margins.

Larsen & Toubro shares fell by 3.6% amid worries regarding exposure in the Middle East and increasing input costs, while Asian Paints saw a 2.7% drop attributed to escalating raw material and logistics expenses.

Oil marketing companies like Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) experienced declines of 4–6%, with Indian Oil Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) dropping by 3–5% as concerns arose over import costs and inventory losses.

Additionally, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd and Adani Enterprises decreased by 2–3%. Broader sectoral indices, such as the Nifty Auto, Nifty Realty, and Nifty FMCG also witnessed 3-5% declines.

However, not every sector suffers when crude rises. Oil exploration and production companies can benefit because higher oil prices increase their revenue potential, explained Rathod.

Technical Views

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree, said that Oil marketing companies HPCL, BPCL, and Indian Oil Corporation have opened sharply lower by around 5%, reflecting near-term sentiment pressure rather than structural breakdown.

"From a technical perspective, the broader trend across all three counters remains intact, with rising 10, 20, and 50-day moving averages as well as supportive weekly and monthly trend structures. This alignment indicates that the sector is still in a primary uptrend despite the short-term correction.

If prices witness an additional 4 to 5% decline from current levels, it would bring them closer to key moving-average support zones, improving long-term risk–reward. Such dips should be viewed as accumulation opportunities for long-term portfolios rather than signs of trend reversal," said Jain.

Ruchit Jain, Head - Equity Technical Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, added that until we see some stability in crude oil prices or early signs of a trend reversal, the equity markets may continue to underperform in the near term. Therefore, traders are advised to remain cautious and adopt a selective approach until clearer signals of stability emerge.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.