Rupee falls 22 paise to close at 82.60 against US dollar

The Indian rupee fell 22 paise to close at 82.60 (provisional) against US dollar on Thursday, dragged by strength in greenback amid hopes of an imminent US debt ceiling deal. The local unit opened at 82.35 per dollar against previous close of 82.38.

The rupee touched 82.65 earlier in the day, the lowest since March 21. The rupee lost 0.27% on the day, its worst single-day fall since May 9.

The dollar index gained strength on the back of progress on the debt ceiling talks.

The Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars via public sector banks after the rupee weakened past 82.50, three traders told Reuters.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields rose overnight and the dollar index jumped to a more than seven-week high amid positive signs on the debt ceiling negotiations and upbeat housing data.

“The USD/INR exchange rate is expected to remain within a narrow range of 81.60 to 82.60 due to the impact of interest rate hikes leveling off and inflation gradually decreasing in economies. Both India and the US are likely at the end of their interest rate cycles,” said Ajay Kedia, Director, Kedia Advisory. 

However, the Indian Rupee may face pressure as oil prices rebound. Factors influencing the exchange rate include the actions of the Reserve Bank of India, US yields, the dollar index, and supportive momentum, he added.

“Technically, the USD/INR is approaching the downward-sloping trendline of a Symmetrical Triangle pattern, with potential support levels at 82.16, 82.00, and 81.67. Over the next few months, the INR is expected to stay within a range of 81.60 to 82.60, but if the US debt crisis escalates, the exchange rate could move towards 84-85 levels,” Kedia said.

Crude oil prices eased as traders watched for signs of progress on talks to raise the US debt ceiling.

Brent crude futures declined 0.56% to $76.53 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 0.52% to $72.45.

On the domestic front, Indian benchmark equity indices failed to hold early gains and ended lower for the third consecutive day. The Sensex declined 0.21% to close at 61,431.74, while the Nifty ended 0.28% lower at 18,129.95.

(With inputs from Reuters)