Silver plunges to six-week low, down 10% from recent peak; what’s dragging the prices?

Silver prices on the MCX plunged to a six-week low of ₹86,620 per kilogram today, driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields after hawkish remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve officials regarding rate cuts. Prices have sharply trended lower over the past four sessions, marking a 5% decline.

Currently trading at ₹87,000, silver prices have retreated by 10% from their recent peak of ₹96,493 observed on May 29th.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman stated on Tuesday that the central bank is not ready to lower rates and is open to raising them if inflation remains high. Similarly, Fed Governor Lisa Cook mentioned that while a rate cut might be appropriate at some point, the timing is uncertain.

Also Read: Fed's Cook: 'At some point' it will be time to cut interest rates

San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly expressed on Monday that the U.S. central bank should not cut rates until policymakers are confident that inflation is heading toward 2%. However, she also noted the increasing risk of rising unemployment.

Following strong U.S. business activity, which reached a 26-month high in June, investors are now focusing on upcoming economic data expected this week for clues about the first rate cut.

While the likelihood of a summer rate cut appears low, investors are looking for indications of a possible rate cut in September. According to CME Group’s Fed Watch tool, traders currently see a 67.7% chance of rates being cut.

Also Read: RBI may implement shallow rate cut even if US Fed defers: Rajani Sinha, CareEdge

In its latest meeting, the US Fed maintained the rate unchanged at a 23-year high range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Additionally, the Fed revised its earlier projection of three rate cuts, as indicated in March, down to just one, eliminating the possibility of a second rate cut.

This week, investors are closely watching key economic indicators' such as the first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) estimates scheduled for Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report to be released on Friday. A strong core PCE reading could weigh negatively on precious metals, as lower rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Meanwhile, U.S. consumer confidence eased in June amid worries about the economic outlook, but households remained upbeat about the labour market and expected inflation to moderate over the next year.

Also Read: Gold declines as dollar, treasury yields rise; silver plunges 1.4%

The robust labour market has been a key factor in enabling the Fed to maintain a more hawkish stance for longer than bond traders had anticipated. On the other hand, softer demand in top silver consumer China also weighed on sentiment, as industrial usage for the metal is likely hurt by overcapacity in solar panel manufacturing.

Disclaimer: We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.