Silver Price Outlook: Experts predict white metal to reach ₹1.17 lakh/kg in a year

Silver prices have been on an upward trajectory, supported by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Analysts anticipate further gains, with projections indicating a potential rise to ₹1.17 lakh over the next 12 months.

Silver has demonstrated strong performance in recent months, with prices rising 15 percent in 2024 and an additional 11 percent in early 2025. Emkay Wealth Management expects silver to remain well-supported in the medium to long term, citing factors such as declining US interest rates, geopolitical uncertainties, and evolving trade policies under the Trump administration.

Meanwhile, according to Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives & Research at SAMCO Securities, silver prices could see a significant upside if USD-INR levels remain stable. He highlighted that silver has traded in defined ranges since 2017, with previous breakouts leading to sharp rallies. Given silver's historical trend of surging by 50 percent from prior highs, Sheth projected a potential target of ₹1.17 lakh in the next 12 months.

"Going ahead silver prices are expected to be well supported. The medium-term as well as long-term factors indicate a positive outlook for silver. The US interest rates are expected to follow a downward trajectory for 2025, albeit at a gradual pace. Over the near to medium term, interest rates are a critical determinant of demand for precious metals. The geopolitical situation is expected to remain fluid over the near term, and the trade policies of the Trump administration are expected to encourage safe haven demand," said Emkay Wealth in a release.

Silver’s Strong Performance Against Equities

Furthermore, Sheth emphasized that silver has outpaced the Nifty 50’s performance since December 2022. While the Nifty has gained 26 percent, silver has risen by 41 percent over the same period. According to Sheth, silver follows a distinct "greed and fear" cycle every 28 months, with the current greed phase projected to last until April 2025. Historically, greed phases have yielded an average return of 108 percent, suggesting further potential upside.

Key Drivers for Silver Prices

A combination of factors, including declining US interest rates, geopolitical uncertainties, and evolving trade policies under the Trump administration, has provided strong support for precious metals.

According to Emkay Wealth Management, US interest rates are likely to trend lower in 2025, albeit gradually. Interest rates play a crucial role in determining demand for precious metals over the short to medium term. Additionally, geopolitical developments are expected to remain unpredictable, while US trade policies could drive increased safe-haven demand for silver.

From a long-term perspective, supply-demand dynamics are a key determinant of silver’s outlook. The metal has been in deficit for the past four years, with an estimated supply of 1,004 million ounces in CY24 against a projected demand of 1,219 million ounces. Nearly 60 percent of silver's total demand stems from industrial applications, including electronic devices, circuit boards, solar panels, and electric vehicle batteries.

With a rising adoption of EVs and green energy solutions, industrial demand for silver is expected to remain strong, further supporting its price trajectory, Emkay added.

Technical Outlook & Historical Trends

Sheth highlighted that weakness in the US dollar is a bullish factor for silver. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is forming a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, suggesting a potential decline toward the 100 mark. If this occurs, it could further support silver prices.

Another key metric, the silver-to-gold price ratio, is currently near multi-decade lows at 1.11 percent. Historically, this ratio has moved higher, implying that silver prices have more room for appreciation compared to gold.

From a technical perspective, Emkay noted that silver is showing signs of relatively higher momentum, with the price trying to breach the crucial US$ 33 level. With a variety of industrial uses, silver is expected to have a better run, moving higher from the current level to US$ 36.60, US$ 38.70, and US$ 39.30. Investing in silver funds with a 12 to 18-month time horizon is likely to be a worthy proposition.

The second technical factor of import is the gold-to-silver ratio. At current prices, the gold-silver ratio is hovering around the 90 mark, indicating a relative cheapness in silver prices. If the ratio is to go back to its long term range of 50 to 70, it translates into strengthening silver prices over the medium term, added Emkay.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.