Silver prices set for best annual gains in 46 years amid 120% YTD rally: Can they hit ₹250,000 by next year?

Silver prices: In a year dominated by commodities, silver has emerged as the standout performer, surging an impressive 120% year-to-date (YTD). The rally propelled prices past the ₹200,000 mark for the first time in the domestic market on Friday and put silver on track for its best annual performance since 1979 — a 46-year milestone.

This, however, is unlikely to mark the end of silver's golden run as analysts expect the prices to scale the ₹240,000-250,000 target in the next year — another 25% rise — underpinned by genuine supply constraints rather than transient speculative excess.

What's supporting silver price rally?

Harshal Dasani, Business Head, INVAsset PMS, said that silver's bull run signals a structural revaluation in a market driven by physical scarcity and broadening demand.

The global mine output has failed to respond to higher prices, plateauing at roughly 810 Moz, levels that are effectively unchanged or lower than five years ago. Approximately 70-80% of silver is mined as a by-product of lead, zinc, and copper. This geological reality makes supply price-inelastic, and miners cannot ramp up silver production without crashing the markets for the primary base metals, said Axis Direct.

According to Refinitiv data, silver supply deficits are expected to persist through 2026, estimated at 112 Moz.

The brokerage further believes that industrial demand remains the cornerstone of the bullish thesis. The photovoltaic (PV) sector has fundamentally altered the demand curve.

"The critical takeaway from the demand data is the exponential growth in industrial demand, specifically from the green energy transition. Demand from the Solar Photovoltaic (PV) sector has more than doubled in just four years, from 94.4 Moz in 2020 to 243.7 Moz in 2024. Solar alone accounted for nearly 21% of total demand in 2024, fundamentally altering the metal's usage profile," it noted.

Additionally, the market is currently grappling with logistical imbalances driven by trade policy uncertainty. Throughout the year, COMEX futures have persistently traded at a premium to London spot prices.

This arbitrage opportunity has aggressively pulled metal out of London, the world’s primary liquidity hub, and redirected it to US vaults, effectively draining the global float. Silver inventory at COMEX has been rising, Axis Direct added.

On technical charts, too, silver has decisively broken out of a decade-long bottoming structure. A sustained monthly close above $67 could trigger a multiyear uptrend targeting $76–$80, opined the brokerage. It, however, sees consolidation may occur near resistance around $65, but the overall structure remains strongly bullish in the long term.

Silver price target

In the domestic market, any correction down to the ₹1,70,000-1,78,000 range can be used for staggered accumulation, with the target of around ₹2,40,000 for 2026, opined Axis Direct.

Meanwhile, Dasani said that looking ahead, silver’s outlook remains strong. With ongoing physical shortages, expanding industrial applications and renewed investment interest, Dasani said "the metal is not merely rising — it is being revalued". Structurally driven demand suggests the rally can sustain through 2026, supported by real fundamentals rather than short-lived speculation, with silver prices expected to touch ₹250,000 next year.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.