Silver rate in India drops 2% amid uncertainty in the Middle East ahead of US inflation data: Key levels to watch

Silver prices in India declined on Thursday, April 9, as investors turned cautious as markets struggled to find direction amid fresh uncertainty in the Middle East despite a ceasefire announcement. Meanwhile, a steady dollar ahead of key U.S. inflation data later in the day also kept the precious metals muted. Gold was also in the red today.

MCX Silver rate today fell 2% or over ₹4,700 to ₹2,35,133 per kg while MCX Gold price lost 0.7% or ₹1,129 to ₹1,50,647 per 10 grams.

Meanwhile, in the international markets, spot silver fell 0.4% to $73.83 per ounce, after 2 sessions of gains, whereas spot gold was little changed at $4,715.42 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for June delivery slipped 0.8% to $4,739.20.

Among other metals, Platinum fell 0.2% to $2,025.75, while palladium rose 0.3% to $1,559.29.

What's leading to today's weak trend?

The main reason behind the decline is that investors are still trying to assess whether the recent U.S.–Iran ceasefire announcement will actually hold, as well as muted trends in the dollar.

While U.S. President Donald Trump had announced a ceasefire earlier this week, the situation has remained far from stable. Israel launched its heaviest strikes yet on Lebanon on Wednesday, killing hundreds and drawing a fresh threat of retaliation from Iran. That has complicated hopes of a lasting de-escalation and kept financial markets on edge.

Iran’s lead negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammed Bager Qalibaf, also signalled that it may now be “unreasonable” to move ahead with talks aimed at reaching a permanent peace deal with the United States. The White House, however, said direct talks with Iran would still take place.

At the same time, Tehran accused Israel of violating the ceasefire and continued attacks on Gulf states, while the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked, despite earlier assurances around safe passage. That matters for markets because the waterway is one of the most important routes for global oil trade, and any disruption there can quickly reignite inflation fears. This led to a rebound in crude oil prices after their sharpest one-day fall since April 2020.

Brent crude futures gained 2.73% to $97.34 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rallied 3.17% to $97.40 a barrel.

Meanwhile, the dollar also steadied after sinking to a one-month low. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.03% to 99.09.

Moreover, minutes from the Fed’s March 17–18 meeting showed that a growing number of policymakers felt rate hikes could still be needed if inflation remains stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target, especially in light of the inflation risks linked to the Iran conflict.

Investors are now waiting for the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for February, along with weekly jobless claims, for fresh clues on the Fed’s policy path. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, it could reinforce the view that rates may stay higher for longer — a factor that tends to pressure non-yielding assets like precious metals.

Key levels to watch

According to Renisha Chainani, Head - Research at Augmont, Silver has given a bullish breakout above $76.50 ( ₹2,43,000), with targets at $82 ( ₹2,55,000) and $87 ( ₹2,65,000) on continued strength.

Meanwhile, for gold, she said, "Gold has given a breakout above $4,800 ( ₹1,53,000), signaling bullish momentum. The next upside target is $5,000 ₹1,59,000).

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.