Silver rate today: Can the US-Iran war fuel the silver price in India to ₹3 lakh this week?

Silver Rate Today: Silver has kicked off the week with strong momentum, and the trigger is clear — escalating tensions between the United States and Iran have pushed investors toward traditional safe-haven assets. With global markets unsettled and oil prices climbing, traders are now asking a bold question: can silver prices in India surge toward ₹3 lakh per kg in the coming days?

Spot silver rose 1.4% to $90.67 per ounce on Tuesday, after touching a more than four-week high in the previous session. The rally comes amid coordinated military strikes by the US and Israel on Iran over the weekend, followed by Iranian retaliation across several Gulf nations.

The situation intensified after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a key oil transit route handling nearly one-fifth of global crude flows. Iranian officials also warned that any ship attempting to pass through the strategic waterway would be targeted.

This sharp escalation has injected a fresh geopolitical risk premium into commodities, particularly precious metals.

The US dollar, meanwhile, hovered near a more than five-week high, supported by safe-haven demand and cautious investor sentiment.

Can Silver hit ₹3 lakh?

Beyond geopolitics, silver’s rally is being supported by deeper structural drivers. The metal has been running a persistent multi-year supply deficit, while industrial demand from electric vehicles, AI infrastructure and solar energy continues to strengthen.

Renisha Chainani, Head – Research at Augmont, highlighted that the current rally is not purely war-driven.

“Silver is setting up a potential extension toward fresh highs. The rally is underpinned by a persistent multi-year supply deficit, strong industrial demand from electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and solar energy, as well as renewed investment inflows and geopolitical risk premiums.”

She pointed out that two emerging developments could further tighten global supply.

First, China — the world’s largest silver consumer — has accelerated post-Lunar New Year restocking of silver and copper. According to her, amid trade tensions and inflation concerns, China appears to be strategically stockpiling key metals to secure supply chains for its manufacturing base, especially in EVs and renewables. Export controls and proactive inventory accumulation signal worries about future availability.

Second, Mexico — the world’s largest silver producer — accounts for roughly one-quarter of global output. A significant share of its mines are located in regions impacted by cartel-related violence. Chainani suggested that any escalation in disruptions could materially impact production and logistics, potentially triggering a supply shock in an already tight market.

From a technical standpoint, silver has delivered a major breakout.

“Silver has confirmed a breakout above the important $95 (~ ₹2,93,000) resistance level, paving the way for a rally toward $100 (~ ₹3,10,000) and subsequently $105 (~ ₹3,25,000). The broader structure remains constructive.”

She added that strong support is now established at $85 (~ ₹2,65,000), and as long as prices hold above this zone, the bullish outlook remains intact.

NS Ramaswamy- Head of Commodity & CRM Ventura stated that Silver is heading into another year of structural deficit, entering its eighth deficit year with inventories at an all-time low and investment demand showing no signs of abating. Supportive macro conditions to keep investment demand firm has been a weaker dollar, demand for real assets and easier monetary policy

"If Silver would sustain above $98 it would activate the momentum zone of $100-$105 range. The 3% war premium in Silver, so far, has been a meagre contributor as compared to the basic fundamental and macroeconomic drivers. By this week-end we expect Silver in rupee terms to surpass ₹3,10,000," he predicted.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.