Silver rate today recovers on MCX amid thin trade even as US Fed minutes lift dollar - What technicals suggest?

Silver rate today: After opening in the red, Silver prices recovered on Thursday, February 19. The movement in the white metal was limited amid thin trading as several Asian markets, including China, remained shut this week for Lunar New Year holidays. Gold prices were also turned green.

The precious metals were muted as on the one hand, the US dollar strengthening is negative for the precious metals. The dollar rose following the release of minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting and ahead of a key inflation report due later this week that could offer fresh cues on the future path of U.S. interest rates. Meanwhile, on the other hand, rising geopolitical tensions between US and Iran provided support to the precious metals, capping the losses.

On MCX, silver price fell around 0.07% to its day's low of ₹2,42,439 per kg in opening deals, while it later recovered 1.4% to its day's high of ₹2,45,999 per kg. Meanwhile, MCX gold price also declined 0.04% to ₹1,55,116 per 10 grams in early deals but later rebounded 0.8% to day's high of ₹1,56,312.

In the international market, spot silver fell 0.5% to $76.83 per ounce, extending losses after plunging more than 5% in the previous session. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $4,961.57 per ounce by 0112 GMT, after rising 2.1% on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures for April delivery were down 0.6% at $4,981. Among other precious metals, spot platinum slipped 0.1% to $2,069.35 per ounce, while palladium eased 0.5% to $1,707.53 per ounce.

Both gold and silver had gained on Wednesday on safe-haven demand after two days of peace talks in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia ended without a breakthrough. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed dissatisfaction with the outcome, even as Washington described the discussions as having made “meaningful progress.”

The decline today came as the US dollar rose to its highest level in more than a week, making dollar-denominated bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies and weighing on prices.

The strength in the greenback followed the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, which showed policymakers were nearly unanimous in their decision to keep interest rates unchanged last month. However, divisions remained over the next policy move, with several officials open to further rate hikes if inflation stays elevated, while others indicated a willingness to support additional rate cuts should inflation continue to ease.

Market participants are currently pricing in three interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Investors are now awaiting further economic cues, including the weekly US jobless claims data due later on Thursday and the Personal Consumption Expenditure data scheduled for release on Friday, which could provide greater clarity on the central bank’s monetary policy outlook.

Moreover, trading volumes remained subdued as markets in mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea stayed closed for the Lunar New Year holidays, a factor that typically results in low liquidity and potentially sharp price swings.

What Technicals suggest?

On the technical front, Renisha Chainani, Head - Research at Augmont expects Silver to trade weak and consolidate in the $70–$90 range ( ₹2,25,000 – ₹2,85,000). Traders should follow a buy-on-dips, sell-on-rallies strategy. A breakdown below $70 may trigger further downside toward $64 ( ₹2,00,000).

For Gold, Chainani believes that in the short term, gold prices are likely to consolidate within the $4,650–$5,100 range ( ₹1,47,000– ₹160,000). A buy-on-dips and sell-on-rallies approach is advisable.

According to Gaurav Garg, Research Analyst at Lemonn Markets Desk, the near-term sentiment around silver and gold remains cautious amid a firmer US dollar and uncertainty around the policy outlook of the US Federal Reserve. However, safe-haven interest and ongoing central-bank buying continue to provide support on dips.

Overall, the current price action is being viewed as consolidation within a broader corrective phase rather than a breakdown of the long-term bullish trend. Investors may consider staggered accumulation, while traders should remain cautious amid elevated volatility, added the expert.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.