Silver rate today in India: White metal trims losses on ceasefire hopes, but firm dollar keeps precious metals on edge

Silver rate today pared some of its earlier losses on Monday after a report signalled a diplomatic push for a ceasefire in the Iran war, although the metal remained under pressure as US President Donald Trump intensified his threats around the conflict that has roiled global markets.

The white metal recovered from steeper intraday declines after Axios reported that the US, Iran and regional mediators were discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could eventually lead to an end to the fighting, citing sources familiar with the talks.

However, a stronger U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields, and fading hopes of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts kept the precious metals in the red. Moreover, rising oil prices raised concerns about inflation.

Silver recovered almost ₹4000 or 1.6% from its intra-day low to day's high of ₹2,33,479 per kg. Meanwhile, Gold also rebounded over ₹2000 or 1.36% to the day's high of ₹1,50,319 per 10 grams.

In early deals, on MCX, Silver rate lost 1.2% to ₹2,29,651 per kg, while gold price fell 0.9% to ₹1,48,298 per 10 grams.

In the international markets, Spot silver was down 1.6% at $71.83 an ounce at 11:34 a.m. Singapore time, after trimming part of its earlier decline. In the broader precious metals pack, spot gold was 1% lower at $4,629.52 an ounce after clawing back some losses from a fall of as much as 1.6% earlier in the session. Platinum also declined, while palladium held steady.

Why are precious metals volatile?

Silver and other precious metals have remained highly sensitive to Trump’s often contradictory messaging on the conflict, which has swung between warnings of further escalation and signals that the war could be nearing an end. Gold had climbed more than 4% last week, although Thursday’s decline snapped its four-day winning streak.

The early decline in silver and other precious metals came as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the dollar index moved higher, making dollar-priced bullion more expensive for overseas buyers and reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. However, the latest news on the ceasefire trimmed losses for the precious metals.

Precious metals have also been under pressure as hopes of U.S. interest rate cuts faded further. Gold had already extended its losses as the escalating war in the Middle East heightened concerns around energy supply disruptions and inflation risks. At the same time, a surprise drop in U.S. jobless claims reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would ease monetary policy anytime soon.

Fresh U.S. labour market data also added to the pressure. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, nonfarm payrolls in March rose by the most since the end of 2024. The stronger-than-expected jobs data is likely to reinforce the Federal Reserve’s focus on inflation risks, especially at a time when higher oil prices are adding to price pressures.

That has significantly changed interest rate expectations. Traders have now almost completely priced out any chances of a Fed rate cut this year. Before the Iran war began, markets had been expecting two rate reductions in 2026. A higher-for-longer interest rate outlook is typically negative for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver, which tend to perform better in a low-rate environment.

Geopolitical tensions also remained in sharp focus. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to rain “hell” on Tehran if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, a critical route for global oil shipments. The continued U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has disrupted global energy supplies, keeping crude prices elevated.

Oil prices were higher on Monday and stayed above $110 per barrel, adding another layer of concern for financial markets. The jump in crude prices has heightened fears of rising inflation. While gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation, persistently high interest rates can offset that appeal by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals.

Should you buy gold, silver?

According to Renisha Chainani, Head - Research at Augmont, going ahead this week, US-Iran deadline, US GDP data and FOMC meeting minutes would be eyed for price momentum. Gold prices are expected to trade in the range of $4580 (~ ₹144,000) to $4800 (~ ₹154,000) this week. Silver is expected to trade in the range of $67(~ ₹215,000) to $77(~ ₹242,000) this week.

Meanwhile, Gaurav Garg, research analyst at Lemonn markets desk noted that Gold and silver prices saw mixed movements today.

“The recent strength of the U.S. dollar has weighed heavily on precious metals, as escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising inflation fears continue to dampen investor sentiment, leading to a cautious outlook for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. Additionally, crude oil prices edged down to $111.33 per barrel (approximately ₹10,336), reflecting a slight decrease of 0.19%, as traders remain vigilant amid geopolitical uncertainties,” Garg said.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.