Silver rate today jumps 4% to fresh record high on MCX amid geopolitical tension in Iran. More gains ahead?

Silver rate today: Silver prices rallied 3.87% to hit a fresh record high on Monday, January 12, tracking gains in the international market. The surge was driven by weakness in the US dollar, following threats from the US Justice Department to criminally indict the Federal Reserve, along with ongoing geopolitical tensions amid escalating protests in Iran.

Silver prices on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) surged by ₹10,109 to ₹2,62,834 per kg in the early morning session on Monday, as compared to the previous close of ₹2,52,725.

Meanwhile, on the international front, silver prices climbed 4.85% to $83.19, after a 10% rally last week, with prices touching a record high of $83.88 today.

“Precious metals are extending their structural bull run into the new year, with silver showing stronger recovery momentum after the recent bout of volatility. COMEX silver futures jumped over 6% to around $79.79 per ounce, rebounding sharply from recent lows near $75 as industrial demand revived alongside renewed safe-haven buying,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.

What's driving the rally in silver?

Silver prices surged to fresh record highs as investors sought safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical risks and mounting expectations surrounding US monetary policy. Key drivers include:

Geopolitical tensions: Widespread protests across Iran, reportedly leading to heavy casualties, unsettled global markets. The exchange of strong rhetoric between US and Iranian officials further heightened tensions, lifting demand for traditional safe havens such as precious metals.

US rate-cut expectations: Weaker-than-anticipated job growth in the latest US payrolls data strengthened market bets that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later this year. While rates are likely to remain unchanged in the near term, expectations of eventual easing continue to underpin bullion prices.

Dollar weakness: The US dollar retreated after a brief uptick as investors weighed growing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence alongside softer economic indicators.

Will the rally continue in silver?

According to Ponmudi, near-term volatility cannot be ruled out, driven by profit-taking, dollar movements and high-frequency macro data from the US and other major economies. However, any corrective phases are expected to remain shallow and well-supported, given the strong underlying demand backdrop.

"Silver continues to offer relative outperformance potential due to its dual role as an industrial and monetary metal, while gold retains its appeal as a core hedge against macro and geopolitical uncertainty. The broader structural uptrend remains intact, and the preferred strategy for the week and beyond continues to be accumulation on dips in technically strong setups," Ponmudi said.

On the technical outlook, he added that the MCX Silver has surged to ₹2,52,725 per kg, confirming a decisive breakout from its recent consolidation range and re-entering a strong bullish channel. The sharp advance signals a resumption of the primary up-move.

“Strong support is placed at ₹2,40,000– ₹2,45,000. A sustained move above ₹2,53,000 could trigger further acceleration toward ₹2,60,000– ₹2,70,000 in the coming weeks. Structural fundamentals, including persistent supply deficits and rising demand from solar, EV, and electronics sectors, continue to favour aggressive accumulation on pullbacks,” said Ponmudi.

Meanwhile, Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities, believes that with policymakers expected to maintain current rates in the near term, the recent surge in the dollar index may limit upside in bullion prices.

“Silver has support at $78.10-76.75, while resistance is at $81.85-82.70. Silver has support at Rs2,48,810, 2,44,170, while resistance is at Rs2,55,810, 2,59,470,” Kalantri said.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.

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