Silver rate today Highlights: MCX silver trades marginally lower, crashes ₹20,000 from peak — What to expect in 2026?

MCX silver futures closed the session on Thursday at ₹235800, down ₹73 per kg or 0.03%. There is no evening session on the MCX today. The trading will now resume on Friday.

In late 2025, COMEX faced what is called as “vault drain crisis,” when more than 60% of its registered silver inventory — was claimed for delivery within just four trading days, revealing just how little deliverable metal remained on hand relative to outstanding futures positions. This dramatic depletion underscores a deeper stress in the system: open interest on COMEX futures continues to vastly exceed physical availability.

A core driver of this transformation is China’s evolving role in the global silver supply chain. China is one of the largest refiners and consumers (a net importer) of silver, and throughout 2025, physical inventories in Chinese vaults have steadily been drawn down to decade-low levels.

These outflows have been driven by a mix of industrial demand, investment accumulation, and possible hoarding, leaving visible inventories at their most constrained in many years.

Additionally, recent policy shifts—including proposed export licensing requirements beginning January 1, 2026—signal Beijing’s intent to retain more silver domestically, or at least regulate the pace at which it leaves Chinese borders. This restricts the flow of physical metal into global markets at a time when other inventory hubs are also under stress, effectively tightening available supply on a global basis.

Aakash Shah, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, said gold’s strong rally of over 65%, which pushed prices beyond ₹1,40,000 per 10 grams domestically and saw spot prices peak near $4,550, has opened targets of $4,400–$5,000, equivalent to ₹1,46,700– ₹1,55,000. He added that silver, after breaching $83 spot (around ₹2,54,000 per kg) and posting a 120% annual surge, is positioned to potentially outperform gold further, with key support seen at ₹2,11,600– ₹1,80,000 and resistance in the ₹2,60,000– ₹2,95,000 zone.

The silver market in 2025 has undergone a structural transformation that goes far beyond a simple bull rally. It reflects a fracture between paper pricing and physical scarcity, driven largely by inventory depletion, policy shifts, tightening global supply, and rising demand from both safe-haven investors and industrial users.

Silver prices recently hit record levels above $75 on COMEX and above ₹2.3 lakh on the domestic front—representing gains of over 160%—underscoring the global nature of the squeeze and persistent demand pressures.

This is not random volatility; it is the culmination of years of supply deficits and intensifying physical demand that have exposed systemic weaknesses in how silver markets are priced and traded.

— Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOSL)

Highlighting silver’s relative valuation, Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at SAMCO Securities, said, “Silver prices have historically traded at 2–3% of gold prices. In 2025, silver traded at just 0.95% of gold prices, while currently it is around 1.65%, indicating there is still significant scope for catch-up after years of repression.” He added that growing interest from central banks such as Saudi Arabia, along with rising industrial demand from semiconductors, solar panels and EVs, supports further upside in silver even from current levels.

“During the Christmas holiday period, when Western benchmark markets such as COMEX and LBMA were closed, silver prices continued to trade actively in Asia. The result was a striking divergence: physical silver in Shanghai surged close to USD 82, while COMEX prices were trading significantly lower. It highlights a growing disconnect between paper-based price discovery and the real conditions of physical supply and demand,” said Sugandha Sachdeva.

“In the absence of any major triggers from global markets, movements in the Indian rupee against the US dollar are likely to remain the primary driver of gold and silver prices on domestic exchanges,” said Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money.

Expecting high volatility in silver rates across bourses, Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet, said, “Shanghai silver price is expected to remain volatile as we witnessed on Monday and Tuesday. Therefore, Indian investors should remain vigilant about key levels. MCX silver rate today has important support placed at the ₹2,32,000 to ₹2,30,000 band. On breaking below this support, MCX silver rates may try to touch ₹2,22,000 to ₹2,20,000 band.”

“MCX and other global bourses are closely following the Shanghai silver price movement these days. As the Shanghai Stock Exchange is open today, I am expecting high volatility in the silver rates on Friday,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet.

“With global participation largely absent, any intraday moves should be viewed as liquidity driven rather than reflective of underlying fundamentals, with normal volumes and clearer directional cues expected to return from January 2, 2026,” said Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money.

After a gap-up opening, MCX silver lost its early morning gains and touched an intraday low of ₹2,33,850 per kg. However, the white metal pared these losses and is currently trading at ₹2,35,365 per kg, ₹336 lower from yesterday's close.

“Recycling offers little relief. Unlike gold, silver is embedded in minute quantities across millions of devices-smartphones, solar panels, electronics, medical equipment-making recovery uneconomic at prevailing prices. Once silver is used industrially, it is effectively consumed, permanently removed from the accessible supply pool,” said Sugandha.

Silver mining cannot respond quickly to price signals. Bringing a new mine into production typically takes seven to ten years, encompassing permitting, feasibility studies, capital deployment, infrastructure build-out, and workforce development. Even projects currently underway are unlikely to add meaningful supply before 2027," Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet added.

“The supply side is structurally broken. Despite materially higher prices over the past two years, global silver mine output remains flat. This is not cyclical; it is structural,” said Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet.

“Silver has shifted from the hands of paper traders to physical delivery. This transfer from weak hands to strong hands is pivotal. Once it reaches critical mass, market structure changes-and pricing power shifts decisively to physical buyers. In October alone, China exported a record 660 tonnes of gold, the largest single-month outflow on record. When visible inventories are drained at this pace, prices do not adjust gradually-they gap higher,” said Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet.

“The metal has not vanished; it has migrated from paper traders who rarely take delivery to industrial users who must secure supply to keep production lines running, to long-term investors and private vaults across Asia, London, and Singapore, away from exchange warehouses and outside the banking system,” Sugandha Sachdeva of SS WealthStreet said.

Speaking on the outlook of COMEX silver price, Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth, said, “The COMEX silver has immediate support placed at $69.70. If the white metal breaks below this support, it may attempt to test the $67 and $65 levels in the international market soon.”

According to Reuters, silver prices soared to record highs, propelled by its inclusion on the U.S.' critical minerals list, supply constraints and low inventories amid rising industrial and investment demand.

After a gap-up opening during the Opening Bell, MCX silver rates extended early gains. MCX silver rate is currently quoting ₹2,35,904 per kg, ₹203 higher than the previous day's close.

According to Reuters, China on Tuesday named the companies that will be able to export tungsten, antimony, and silver during the 2026 and 2027 periods, metals Beijing deems critical to support its own industries. A total of 44 companies will be allowed to export silver, while the numbers for tungsten and antimony will be 15 and 11, respectively, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. That's two more than in 2025 for silver, while tungsten and antimony are unchanged.

“As long as $70.40 holds, the trend remains corrective rather than bearish. A break below $70.40 could trigger a short-term reversal toward $65, while a decisive move above $78.67 would invalidate the bearish setup and signal trend continuation toward fresh highs. Volatility is expected to remain elevated within this range,” said Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money.

Amid no cues from the Shanghai silver price, MCX silver is trading flat during the Opening Bell. MCX silver rate today opened marginally higher at ₹2,35,998 per kg and touched an intraday high of ₹2,38,911 per kg . However, the precious white metal failed to sustain at higher levels and came under the profit-taking pressure. Currently, MCX silver rate is quoting ₹2,35,766 per kg, ₹65 higher than the previous day's close.

Expecting a strong bounce back once the Chinese paper silver play evapourates, Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet said, “Silver’s sharp 178% rally this year marks a decisive structural turning point, not a speculative blow-off. The price action reflects a global repricing driven by acute physical scarcity, rapidly expanding industrial demand, ongoing monetary dilution, and a clear shift of price discovery toward Asia, particularly China. Crucially, this rally is being led by deliverable metal demand, not by leveraged futures positioning.”

“The correction has been driven primarily by CME margin hikes, forced deleveraging, year-end tax harvesting, and thin liquidity conditions, keeping near-term sentiment cautious despite the intact broader trend,” said Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money.

As we enter the New Year 2026, the Chinese restrictions on silver export, banning those exports who don't have government license, is expected to play its role in the movement of silver rates today. The Chinese move is expected to impact silver prices on COMEX and other bourses too.

“These days, MCX and other global bourses are following Shanghai silver price movement very closely. As the Shanghai Stock Exchange is closed today for the New Year 2026, MCX silver price is expected trade flat in the early morning session, ” said Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth.

Speaking on the outlook of MCX silver rates, Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, said, “Despite the near-term pressure, the longer-term bullish framework remains intact."

"MCX silver rate finding initial support near the rising channel and the 20-day EMA around ₹2,08,994, with deeper declines continuing to attract accumulation interest. A sustained rebound above ₹2,36,000 could trigger fresh upside toward ₹2,45,000 to ₹2,60,000 over the medium term. The broader trend continues to favour accumulation on dips,” said Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money.

The MCX silver rates finished marginally higher on Wednesday at around ₹2,36,000 per kg levels. However, this price discovery a the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) is still more than ₹18,000 away from the record high of ₹2,54,174.